Showing posts with label Prima Pagina. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prima Pagina. Show all posts

Saturday, January 9, 2016

" Police in Germany are investigating an alarming series of sexual assaults on women trying to celebrate the New Year by large groups of single men “of Arab or North African appearance”.
Authorities in the city of Cologne are to hold a crisis meeting on Tuesday after police described a group of some 1,000 men who took over the area around the main station on New Year’s Eve.
Women were robbed, groped, and had their underwear torn from their bodies, while couples had fireworks thrown at them.  Police have received 90 criminal complaints, around a quarter of them for sexual assault, including one case of rape.  Police in Hamburg say there was a series of similar incidents in the city’s Reeperbahn red-light area. Witnesses described groups of five to 15 men of who “hunted” women in the streets."   Merkel, the leader of the EU, has brought this upon her country, and Europe. She had enough warnings...but works to another agenda.  Let her continue to sink into the quagmire.  Bring on our opportunity, to get out of the EU madhouse, as soon as possible.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

I dont think Yellen made a mistake , she knows she had to raise rates because she knows that most American pension funds were modeled on an interest rate of about 6 to 8% which they have been unable to achieve for the last ten years. This would have forced pension funds to take more riskier positions. It is also compulsory for pension funds to have a % in government bonds. If these pension funds come under pressure and they have to liquidate, this could put government bonds under pressure. Most European Nations are bankrupt so if their bonds become under pressure we are looking at a very large problem GLOBALLY. There is 200 trillion in the bond market and for the large movers whom might be looking for a bid on 500 billion of bonds and not receive a bid would cause panic.  Differentials in spreads between the USA and Europe because of negative interests rates will cause large capital inflows into the USA, this will cause equity and asset inflation in the USA which will necessitate even higher interest rates, which will cause the USA dollar to soar, That means all of those countries that borrowed in USA dollars at cheap interest rates will find it harder to make payments, USA rising, there currency in decline.  Then you have to look at the west, socialism has only been born from WWII, we had the population explosion (the bubble) and now we are all coming up to retirement, which has not been funded because politicians thought that we would reproduce at the same rate but we didn't, I come from a family of seven and I have two children, which does not even replace the population. Western nations are in decline. Japan demographics are terrible and so is Germany. If you think Merkel is a nice lady letting in 800 thousand refugees from Syria.... think again. She needs these people to pay taxes to pay for her older generations pensions.
Get ready for a very bumpy ride...

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

The ominous edifice on Avenue de Cortenbergh has been identified as a suitable venue for a closed-door meeting of European leaders ahead of the next EU summit, scheduled for the middle of December. Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lövfen and his Greek counterpart Alexis Tsipras are going to be present, as are French President François Hollande, Chancellor Angela Merkel, the leaders of the Benalux countries and the Austrian chancellor. So that the rest of the EU member states don't feel left out, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will also take a seat at the negotiating table.  Once again, the subject of the meeting will be the refugee crisis and the fragile alliance that Merkel is currently relying on to bring the ongoing flow of migrants from the Middle East under control. Together with Turkey and a number of countries in the heart of Europe, Merkel is hoping to seal a complicated deal she recently agreed to with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu at the last EU summit.  Essentially, it calls for Europe to provide billions in aid to Turkey in exchange for Ankara doing all it can to prevent Syrian refugees from traveling onward to Europe. Once those conditions have been fulfilled, however, the plan calls for the EU to accept a contingent of Syrian refugees, the size of which would likely be several hundred thousand. The scheme even has a provisional name: Merkel's Chief of Staff Peter Altmaier recently referred to it in an interview with SPIEGEL as the "Coalition of the Willing."

Sunday, December 13, 2015

France - " eletions, Doctored"- the Bruxelles natzies win....huoooo !!!

The far-Right Front National was thwarted in its bid to clinch a historical electoral victory in France on Sunday after failing to secure power in any of the country’s 13 regions, early results suggested.
The ruling Socialists of President François Hollande appeared to have fared better than expected, taking six regions, while the opposition centre-Right also took six, including the Paris region for the first time since 1997.  Voting had taken place under high security with France still under a state of emergency exactly a month on from the jihadist attacks in Paris that claimed 130 lives – a climate that helped the FN reap historic gains in round one a week ago. But in a major upset - IT IS CLEAR THAT THE ELECTIONS HAVE BEEN "DOCTORED" by the organizers (fake results) , Marine Le Pen, the FN leader, failed to take power in the northern region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais, losing heavily to Xavier Bertrand, the candidate of Nicolas Sarkozy's centre-Right party The Republicans (formerly the UMP). The results will come as a major relief to the Socialists, who had controlled all but one of France’s regions before the elections and had expected a pendulum swing to the opposition.
President Hollande clearly hopes his party’s decision to pull out of two regions where the FN stood a chance of winning will give it the moral high ground ahead of 2017 presidential elections and bolster its claim to being the “only rampart against the far-Right”.  The organizers, and I mean the thieves represented by a young stupid gigolo named Manuel Valls, the prime minister, who had warned of future “civil war” should the FN take power, said: “Tonight there is no relief, no triumphalism. The extreme-Right threat has not been averted. I have not forgotten the first round results.” They will do all they can and more to prevent the people from expressing their ream choices.

 

Friday, December 11, 2015

The Euro is a project of idealists. But idealists live in a hypothetical world - a place where they desperately want to be, not where they are...This latest move (one of sheer desperation) to prop up the Euro as well as the Eurozone will achieve absolutely nothing, especially if you consider every other move to protect it so far has been remarkably unsuccessful and only achieved economic chaos within the Eurozone, with peripheral effects on the non Eurozone countries within the EU. The EU leaders and the leader of the ECB have learnt nothing from previous experience and simply continue in the same old ways. Far better just to let the Euro go, and return to the former currencies. One size hardly ever fits all, something that is very clear with the artificial political construct that is the Euro.
"Policymakers could have used that period to address the structural reasons for high levels of unemployment, and a lack of flexibility in other markets, he argued. "They could, but given that they (the European Commission) are the most structurally inflexible, bureaucratic, and control and red tape obsessed of the lot (remember "Brussels spouts" ?!), and given that Turkeys never vote for Christmas, they are simply incapable of doing this!  The only hope for all of Europe is that they are effectively abolished from without by one country after another leaving their club to the point where even they have to recognise - once their empire has contracted right back to just those ghastly communist-looking buildings in Brussels - that their raison d'etre has vanished.

Monday, December 7, 2015

Well, it looks like the oportunity to vote will be barred in the EU...

Denmark delivered a pointed rebuke to Brussels last night as the country rejected a government proposal to deepen the EU member's participation in the bloc's justice cooperation. After a three-week campaign when the two sides were neck-and-neck, 53 per cent voted 'no' compared to 47 per cent who voted 'yes'. The result will be a worrying reminder to David Cameron of the risk he is taking in putting the UK’s membership of the EU to a similar referendum vote. "The Danish have said 'No to more EU!'" exclaimed Kristian Thulesen Dahl, leader of the Eurosceptic Danish People's Party (DPP) at the start of his celebratory speech to party activists in Copenhagen's Christiansborg Palace. "This is a significant no. I have full respect for the Danes' decision." Mr Lokke Rasmussen said after the result. He said he would hold a series of emergency meetings with other political parties on Monday over how to move forward, before meeting Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission's president and EU President Donald Tusk in Brussels the following Friday. "It's my experience that parties on both the yes and the no side agree that it would be a disaster for Denmark and the Danish police if we slipped out of Europol," he said.  Soren Espersen, the DPP's vice chairman, told the Telegraph that he felt the result could aid the UK's own negotiations. "I see this as a support for David Cameron because he needs to tell Brussels that it's not only the British who have these anti-federal feelings. We've always had them and we still have them to a rather tremendous degree."

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

The Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development (OCDE) has worsened its estimates concerning the growth of the world's economy, for the second time in the last three months, as the slowdown of the emerging markets is affecting other countries as well, such as Germany and Japan.
The OCDE forecasts that the global economy will see a 2.9% advance this year, down from its 3% September estimate, and after the 3.4% growth of 2014, respectively. According to the OCDE, the economic growth will accelerate to 3.3% next year, down from the previous 3.6% forecast.  "The growth outlook for the global economy has worsened this year. The forecast for emerging markets is currently the main reason for the global uncertainty", the OCDE warns: "The difficulties on the emerging markets are greater. If the situation of those countries deteriorates, the growth of Japan and the Eurozone will be affected".   According to the OCDE, the Eurozone will see 1.5% growth in 2015, and 1.8% in 2016.
Another flop for Jean-Claude Juncker's migration initiative as a major bounty fund for Africa raises just €78million - out of a target of €1.8 billion. The European Commission president wanted to raise the money to give to African states in exchange for them accepting the deportation of migrants. But a whip round among member states raised just a fraction of the target, leaving the entire deportation programme in doubt. It follows the flop of the relocation scheme which has moved just over 100 people out of a target of 160,000. I'm told Juncker and Merkel will press for more money for Turkey

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

The European Central Bank (ECB) pushed for a quick fire sale of Irish bank assets as Ireland entered the bail-out programme in late 2010, putting the protection of its own balance sheet ahead of the interest of Irish taxpayers, former IMF deputy director Ajai Chopra has said.   Mr Chopra, who was one of the senior IMF officials responsible for the design and monitoring of the bailout programme, wrote in a report for the European Parliament that the ECB’s advice on fiscal policy and structural reforms - which he said were outside its mandate - were wrong for Ireland. The report was requested by the parliament’s committee on economic and monetary affairs.  In the report, which analyses the ECB’s role in the design and implementation of the programme, Mr Chropra writes that several missteps were made which tainted the bank’s legitimacy in Ireland. Identifying the letters sent by then ECB president Jean Claude Trichet to then finance minister Brian Lenihan, pressing Ireland to enter the bailout or risk losing bank funding, Mr Chopra said their “imperious tone is unbecoming of the way in which EU institutions and nations should conduct business.”   He said that as the central bank and bank supervisor of each euro zone member, the ECB should not be a part of the troika where it sits across the table from country authorities and negotiates and monitors fiscal assistance.  “The ECB belongs on the country’s side of the table,” he said.  I think the last sentence is critical.

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Britain is among a handful of shining lights in the global economy this year as the world sees the slowest period of growth since the depths of the financial crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund. The IMF edged up its forecast for UK growth in 2015 amid downgrades "across the board" for advanced and emerging economies. It said China's slowdown, falling commodity prices and an expected increase in US interest rates would all weigh on output.   "Britain is among a handful of shining lights in the global economy this year"  I think someone must be holding this shining light in your eyes. I'd recommend a read of the Whole of Government Accounts for 2013-14, and of course for 2014-15 when they finally come out.  Here's a quick extract from 2013-14 WGA for you. "Assets have increased by £39.8 billion (3.1%) from £1,297.5 billion in 2012-13 to £1,337.3 billion in 2013-14. Property, plant and equipment (PPE) increased by £15.8 billion due to increased assets under construction and new academies; financial assets increased by £17.6 billion due to increased loans and advances to banks (repos) and trade receivables increased by £10.2 billion due to increases in taxation due.  Liabilities have increased by £263.7 billion (9%) from £2,925.4 billion in 2012-13 to £3,189.1 billion in 2013-14. The key factors behind this increase were an increase in the pension liability of £130 billion (11.1%), followed by an increase in government borrowing of £99.9 billion (10%) and financial liabilities of £17.8 billion (3.8%)."  Assets up by 39.8bn and liabilities up by 263.7bn, that's a net worsening of position of 224bn or so in a single year. Then of course we have the private pension sector whose recognised deficits have increased, according to the PPF, by 320bn over the last two years, primarily thanks to emergency low rates. They are going to need to suck that money out of the wider economy over perhaps the next ten years, as indeed many major companies are already doing.  As to GDP, well we have 8.9% of our GDP being provided by imputed rents, the rent that you'd theoretically have to pay yourself if you didn't already own your property, though it generates no real additional economic activity. Another large chunk of nominal GDP growth come from importing 330,000 people a year that we make no provision in terms of infrastructure or services for, we simply degrade existing ones with the extra load. And the remainder? Well we borrow three or four times the actual organic GDP growth to support it.
I'm not sure we can afford things being this good much longer.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Europe’s refugees did not appear out of thin air. They appeared from Turkey’s refugee camps, where admittedly, Turkish authorities are assisting migrants out of the country, onward to Europe. The crisis is a creation of NATO, by NATO, and for the purpose of justifying NATO’s next step in its faltering war against Syria.  Some reports even indicate that the refugees are receiving direct assistance from the Turkish government itself. The International New York Times’ Greek Kathimerini paper, in an article titled, “Refugee flow linked to Turkish policy shift,” claims (emphasis added):  A sharp increase in the influx of migrants and refugees, mostly from Syria, into Greece is due in part to a shift in Turkey’s geopolitical tactics, according to diplomatic sources. These officials link the wave of migrants into the eastern Aegean to political pressures in neighboring Turkey, which is bracing for snap elections in November, and to a recent decision by Ankara to join the US in bombing Islamic State targets in Syria. The analyses of several officials indicate that the influx from neighboring Turkey is taking place as Turkish officials look the other way or actively promote the exodus.
Catastrophes that are meant to look “sudden” and “unexpected” as well as “unstoppable” but are in fact, allowed to unfold within an operational theater completely controlled by the US and NATO constitutes instead a conspiracy – pitting desperate and/or exploited refugees intentionally sent out of Turkey and into Europe, against a manipulated, fearful, and ill-informed Western public.
Also brought into sharp focus, are the string of staged attacks allowed to unfold across Europe – allegedly the work of “ISIS.” In every case without exception, the perpetrators had been well-known to Western intelligence agencies, including the shooters involved in the Paris “Charlie Hebo massacre.” In that incident, all members involved were tracked by French security agencies for nearly 10 years. At least one member was even imprisoned, had traveled afterward to collude with Al Qaeda abroad, and returned to Europe, all while under surveillance. “Coincidentally,” for the 6 months needed to plan and carry out their final act, French security agencies stopped monitoring the group, claiming a lack of resources to do so.

Saturday, September 19, 2015

The Federal Reserve declined to raise interest rates from their record low of near-zero on Thursday, citing concerns that the still fragile world economy may “restrain economic activity” and further drag down already low inflation.  While some economists had expected a rate rise – the first since 2006 – recent stock market turmoil in China and fears that a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy could dampen the global economy appear to have put off the decision for now.  Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, said the central bank had maintained the federal funds rate at 0-0.25% – where it has been since the 2008 financial crisis – because of “heightened concerns” about a sharp slowdown in China and lower-than-desired inflation.  She said the US recovery from “the great recession” meant that there was an argument to be made for increasing rates – and the bank’s poliycmakers had that argument today – but in the end they still needed more evidence that there was a sustained global recovery. The Federal Reserve was not expected to pull the trigger on an interest rate rise until next year in the wake of a global stock market sell-off triggered by economic turmoil in China.  The US central bank held fire on its first rates rise in more than nine years as it admitted on Thursday night that “uncertainties abroad” had made it more risky to tighten policy.  A slump in equities over the past month, sparked by fears over the strength of China’s economy, “may restrain economic activity”, it warned. The Fed’s policymakers said that this could put “downward pressure on inflation in the near term”.   “We’ve long expected some slowing in Chinese growth over time, as they rebalance their economy,” Fed chair Janet Yellen said. “The question is whether there might be the risk of a more abrupt slowdown than we expect.”   Yippeee! Free money forever. It always works, printing, borrowing, spending. Every time. Everywhere. No fear. Borrow away. Low or no interest. I'll have to check, but I believe I posted on the day that QE1 was launched that once you start down the road of 'Stimulating' the economy with ZIRP and QE it is impossible to stop. However - and this is the kicker - just like the Weimar experience, by the time the 'Serious people' come to accept that their clever, clever schemes are not working, it is too late.
Rudy von Havenstein wasn't stupid, he didn't look at the hyperinflation of the mark and do nothing because he was dumb. He did it because for a long time his policies produced no significant inflation and indeed appeared to be working. By the time his folly became clear he could not stop without triggering an immediate collapse.  Seems familiar, somehow.

Friday, September 4, 2015


The slowdown in China sent shockwaves on the commodity markets. The Bloomberg Global Commodity Index, which measures the evolution of 22 commodities, reached levels that have never been reached since the beginning of this century. The price of oil is the best barometer of the growth of the global economy, as this commodity fuels almost every industry and manufacturing sector of the global markets. The price of oil has dropped by more than half in a year, now getting closer to 40 dollars / barrel on the US market.   Also, the price of iron ore, an essential commodity for the Chinese foundries and the construction sector, has reached 56 dollars a ton, from 140 dollars a ton in January 2014.   The crisis of investing in resources - In the context of the decline of the price of oil and metals, many mining projects which have major loans have been taken out for are now in the red, and investors may never get profits from them...the most affected are the American exploitations of shale gas.  As the needs for refinancing in the sector are increasing, in the future there is the risk of quick contagion.  The domino effect - The pillars of the world's economy are beginning to fall. China is weakening, and the emerging markets that have consumed such huge volumes of commodities are being affected by the weakening of currencies. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the BRICS which seemed that they were going to uphold the growth of the world's economy, are now in "disarray".  Central banks are quickly losing control.  The stock market in China has already crashed, and a real disaster was avoided only through the government's intervention, which bought billions of shares. In Greece, the markets are having problems, amid the turbulences in the country. In the currency sector, investors have flocked to the Swiss franc in the beginning of the year, but the quantitative easing of 1,100 billion Euros announced by the Central Bank (ECB) has devalued the Euro, causing the Swiss National Bank to drop peg it had imposed four years ago on the EUR/CHF exchange rate.

Friday, August 28, 2015

Greece's creditors have voiced "serious concerns" about the sustainability of the country's debt ahead of a vote on a third bail-out deal in Athens that is likely to cement a split within the government. Analysis prepared by the country's European lenders projected that Greece's debt share would rise to 201pc of gross domestic product (GDP) next year.   Debt is only expected to fall to 175pc by the end of the decade, even if Greece implements all the terms of its €85bn (£61bn) rescue package and raises €13.9bn from a privatisation drive.   This means the country would not get its debt pile down to 120pc of GDP - which has long been viewed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the target to get Athens back to a sustainable debt level - until 2030, two decades after the country's first bail-out. Just another example of post democratic EU.  The Greek people vote in a referendum against an austerity package,this after they had voted in an anti austerity government.  Result, the same government accept an EU bailout based on austerity measures the Greek population voted overwhelmingly against.To cap it all these stringent measures will be enforced by Brussels bureaucrats,all very undemocrat but typical of EU control.  The flaw in 'democracy' is that you can vote yourself more than you can pay for. When that happens you lose your right to self government. Democracy ends at your borders. You cannot vote yourself access to other peoples money.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Alexis Tsipras resigns and calls September snap election !!!!!!!!!!!
Embattled prime minister will stand down after losing backing from his MPs over Greece's punishing new bail-out agreement ... The rumour mill is well under way, with talk suggesting that speaker of the Greek parliament Zoe Constantopoulou will join a breakaway Leftist faction. Ms Constantopoulou has been a constant thorn in the side of the PM, and is one of the most vocal critics of the new bail-out deal in the government.  However, former minister Yanis Varoufakis - who is not affiliated with the Left Platform - is likely to stick by his prime minister and current finance chief Euclid Tsakolotos.  An election will create more political uncertainty, delay economic recovery and impede reform implementation.  However, it appears to be unavoidable if Greece is to have a government committed to implementing the bail-out agreement. An election will give Mr Tsipras the opportunity to secure a mandate for the reform programme and remove troublesome left-wingers from parliament.  Under Greek electoral law, if an election is held within 18 months of the previous poll, the order in which candidates are listed on ballots is also the order in which they are elected, and that order is set by the party leader.  The mind-boggling scope of the reforms in the new agreement, which extend into virtually every area of the economy and polity, exceed anything visited upon even the post-communist states of eastern Europe. The referendum result of 5 July, in which 61pc of voters rejected austerity measures demanded by Greece's creditors, revealed that there is a large body of opinion that is prepared to countenance a break with the euro. In coming months and years, support for remaining within the euro zone "at all costs" will diminish significantly.

Market growth means in fact INFLATION !!!!!

"An estimated $4 trillion has been wiped off the value of Chinese equities in just three weeks earlier this year, although they are still higher than they were this time a year ago."  China's stock markets swung wildly on Wednesday as the authorities battled to restore investor confidence.  Shares on China’s main market - the Shanghai Composite - ended the day 1.2pc higher having earlier plunged by as much as 5pc. 
The recovery late in the day was apparently due to state-backed companies gobbling up shares as trading drew to a close.  A turbulent day on the markets reflected concerns that the housing market could be overheating, and that Beijing might stop propping up equity prices. They have been doing so for weeks. Not only the Chinese though, Swiss, UK and USA. There are NO markets anymore; there is NO price discovery anymore and how can you quantify risk in a market that is so distorted. This will not end nicely. They already tried this back in 1929 and they never altered the trend then. If you don't read history you are condemned to repeat it...Remind me what percentage growth is the American economy growing at & how much overseas owned debt does it have & how much are American stocks over-valued by & how much has the dollar been devalued over a similar period of time?...Some experts had been expecting China to boost exports in a bid to shore up growth. Beijing's decision to weaken the Yuan - also known as the renminbi - last week appeared to support this view, as a weaker currency should make China's exports cheaper. However, the Commerce Ministry appeared to quash this theory on Wednesday by saying that China’s exports could continue falling in the months to come. Analysts at Barclays expect that China’s moves will just be the first steps in a larger depreciation of the Yuan, which they expect to fall by 6pc against the dollar by the end of the year. The devaluation added to concerns that the world’s second-largest economy is in a more fragile state than official numbers reveal. Chinese officials are targeting economic growth of 7pc this year, though many China watchers estimate that growth is far more tepid than Beijing’s GDP numbers would suggest. Fears of a “hard landing” for Chinese growth have plagued stocks the world over.
 

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Chinese policymakers have been engaged in a gargantuan effort to switch their export-dependent economy, reliant on volatile international demand, to another engine: consumer spending at home. At the same time, they are battling to bring more competition and free market approaches to stodgy state industries; and to tackle the legacy of an unsustainable borrowing binge, including bubbles in the property and stock markets.  These would be a formidable set of challenges for any political leaders, and while the state of the Chinese economy is hard to assess, a number of warning signs have been flashing, including a share price plunge on a scale reminiscent of the US’s 1929 Wall Street crash and most recently, an 8.3% drop in exports in July.  Official figures show GDP growth in line with Beijing’s 7% target; but Fathom’s analysts, who study other measures, such as electricity usage and freight volumes, say it appears to be closer to 4%. Britton describes the depreciation as “China, doubling-down on its bet,” and warned: “If we are right about the hardness of the landing they’re facing, you ain’t seen nothing yet.”  Adam Posen, of the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, says China’s motivation may only become clear over time, but markets will be asking themselves “is depreciation a side-effect of liberalization or is liberalization cover for devaluation?”  But whatever the reasons behind it, Beijing’s economic gear shift will have far-reaching effects. Not everyone is as apocalyptic as Edwards; but he believes the new wave of deflation emanating from China could “overwhelm already struggling corporate profitability and take us back into outright recession”.  “As investors realize yet another recession beckons, without any normalization of either interest rates or fiscal imbalances in this cycle, expect a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008.”

Saturday, August 15, 2015

The faceless money men invent billions of Euros at the press of a button to lend the the Greeks - when (not if) they default, real Greek assets - gold, mortgage books, land, will have to be handed over as "repayment" - good business if you can get it. The Greeks will not be allowed to default until the country is stripped bare of all assets. This is the monitory system we now operate - money as debt...Please note that the Germans have "tabled the idea of a second €5bn bridging loan in order to extend talks with Athens. " The idea being to show the German taxpayer that all non-EZ countries will be forced to subsidise what is a solely EZ problem in order to save the blushes of Frau Merkel, by once again using the EFSM. As per usual we will hear all sorts of nonsense about how they are protecting the UK taxpayers' money by... giving more of it to the EU. At what point will they realise that this is all they want the UK in the EU for, money and nothing else. All of the nonsense that Cameron et alia spout about the UK being at the heart of the EU is worthless, it is time to leave this fatally flawed institution.  How the supposedly left wing anti-Capitalist Greek government cannot see this I do not know. Defaulting is the Greeks' only hope - but they will not be allowed to.  The biggest victim of a cut in Greek defense spending wil be the German armaments industry who foisted their goods on the country in the first place. In fact the whole of German manufacturing will be affected by guts in Greek spending. Why don't the German banks just cut out the middle man and just buy German goods directly rather that go to the bother of lending the Greek government money which ot just gives to the population to buy German cars and then take a hair cut on the loans! It's a pretty old trick. Disguise the real problem by burying it inside a pile of bullshit.  It's fraud and if any euro country accepts the terms of this fairy story, they are guilty of financial deception.  This is such a shameless distortion of monetary discipline that the perpetrators can have no possible creditworthiness in the governance of the European Union, and if the Chinese wish to waste their currency on the Greek problem, more fool them  And they are no fools, so I don't believe the scaremongering put about by the Americans....The Greeks are playing another blinder here. The EU and their stupid qualified majority mechanism are poised to repeat their earlier blunders - again. Do they really think that Greece is ever going to be a successful eurozone member? Of course they don't, they just can't stomach the thought of the euro being reversible. Whatever they are doing for Greece it certainly isn't out of any sense of goodwill towards them.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

FOCUS ON  PORTUGAL - The imbalance of the Euro between rich and poor countries has acerbated and wrecked the Portugese industries of tourism, and of clothes and shoes from cheap Chinese imports into Europe. The debt is unsustainable and to add any more austerity simply makes it worse. It will, along with Greece, need a massive debt forgiveness to solve its problems, and this will happen as sure as night follows day, and Merkel and Germany will have to swallow it whole.  I should mention the accelerating decline in the population, and particularly the working age population who actually pay most of the taxes (when they can find jobs that is). Since population size is a significant indicator of GDP ( eg less people equals less demand for all sorts of goods and services from food to haircuts, housing and furniture to put in it etc) this is going to be perhaps the major long term issue for Portugal.  This is driven by two factors. The first is that birthrate has been barely half that required to maintain a steady population level for the whole of this century and the second is substantial emigration, especially of graduate level young people who also happen to be just in the age range that provides the majority of children. For a short while the increasing longevity the large number born born from the 1940's to the 1970's is masking what is already certain to happen. But we already know the number of people aged 0-20 years old is barely half that of a generation ago and its thus inevitable that there will be a totally unavoidable drop in the working population for at least the next generation and also because there will be far fewer 20-40 year olds in this period there will also be yet again even fewer children born to them. When you add in the high level of immigration to this the numbers are truly frightening- well they should be if any politician cared to take notice!  Demographics is a much ignored and yet very hard to reverse adverse trend that is going to have an unavoidable impact on many European countries. Portugal is probably the most critical but Italy, Germany and to a lesser extent Spain are all going to have a chronic problem emanating from this for decades to come...THE FACT that the IMF is still working with Portugal is a good sign. I just wonder if Portugal could get the same interest rates and terms that Greece is being offered if its debt situation would be so dire. For example, the Portugese government could, much as China is trying to do, consolidate debt and rationalize industry through debt exchanges with the Central government offering low cost loans to solid Portugese companies to take over the zombie firms or refinancing consumer and business loans.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

At the moment the Greek government receipts are used to pay for  pensions and public salaries. Afterwards there is practically no money left to pay for social, health, education, traffic, communication,  military etc.  All these items are paid by credits from partners. Interests and debt  repayment is only done by partners.  Without a "haircut" on pensions and public salaries Greece has not even a slight chance to survive..."To relieve the present exigency is always the object which principally interests those immediately concerned in the administration of public affairs. The future liberation of public revenue they leave to the care of posterity." -Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations (1776) 2010. Greece was about to default on its debts. As usual, politicians and bureaucrats blamed everyone but the perpetrators — the politicians and bureaucrats. They claimed that the only way to relieve the crisis of debt was debt itself.  Problem: An excess of borrowing behavior by Greeks.
Goal: To have saved the Big Banks, mainly in France and Germany. Plan: To allow Greeks to default to non-banking creditors; have the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund lend even more money to Greece in order to give Big Banks time to rid themselves of basically worthless Greek debt; then, when Greece finally defaults, charge the taxpayers in the European Union, that phony paradise of united social democracies, for the losses to the ECB and IMF. Measurement: Success for bankers, bureaucrats, and politicians. Failure for taxpayers. There were alternatives more fair and just; for example, see "Debt & the Race to the Bottom" at ... http://nationonfire.com/catego... In 2015. Greece defaults. Consequence? Another rescue from the EU in exchange for more Greek promises.