Wednesday, January 7, 2015

...a sign to start stuffing the mattresses...


I still hold out hope that an economic implosion of the Eurozone could lead to the break up of the EU which affords Romania and others an easy low cost and smooth exit without any political upheaval. If such a bounty were to happen it could mark the very lowest point of 100 years of perpetual decline. The eurozone has officially slipped into deflation, after latest figures showed prices in December were 0.2pc lower than a year earlier.   The figure, far short of the European Central Bank's target of just under 2pc, is the latest pointer towards fresh intervention by the bank as it tries to prop up a sluggish economy.   Energy prices slumped 6.3pc compared to a year ago, driven by falling oil prices. The cost of industrial goods and food was flat while services rose 1.2pc. This is the first time the euro area has experienced deflation since 2009.   The ECB will meet on January 22 to consider whether to go beyond its existing stimulus measures and start buying sovereign bonds in a program of quantitative easing.   ECB president Mario Draghi has dropped numerous hints that he hopes to push cash through the eurozone economy in this way, despite grumblings in Germany that such measures are outside the central bank’s mandate. The euro, which reached a fresh nine-year low of $1.1842 before the figures were released, rose slightly after the announcement.   The currency has dropped from a high of $1.39 in May as the economic recovery in the United States diverged from the torpid eurozone.  The inflation figures follow German data on Monday showing that the currency bloc’s biggest member had experienced inflation of just 0.1pc in December, down from 0.5pc in the previous month and short of forecasts of 0.2pc. A purchasing managers’ index for December was published on Tuesday showing continued weak growth in the eurozone economy, with a reading of 51.4. A score of 50 or above denotes growth, but survey compiler Markit said the reading pointed to expansion of just 0.1pc in the final three months of 2014.   Watched from the sidelines of the UK, a fanatically driven religious war and deflationary spiral both coming from different directions to annihilate the entire European Project and re ignite a nationalist / fascist backlash throughout Central and Eastern Europe that engulfs the Continent would undoubtedly be the most exhilarating and awesome piece of history to unfold in 1000 years.   Armed with 24 hour digital media, chilled beers and comfy armchairs it would deliver the most stunning entertainment on a perennial basis as seminal pages of history are written whose importance to the future of Humanity and the map of the earth is of such magnitude that will be taught, debated and analyzed for hundreds, possibly thousands of years into the future.   Every time I dismiss it as just a dream events take it one big step nearer....So, the Eurozone enters a deflationary spiral and the markets? Shows just how disconnected they are from real economic data. Pushing up on a few words of obfuscation from Draghi as opposed to looking at the hard aspects of economics and the ability for major companies to generate profit / return.   If that ain't a sign to start stuffing the mattresses, I don't know what is.

The answer is NO.....

Michael Fuchs, deputy parliamentary floor leader of the German chancellor's Christian Democrats (CDU), told Deutschlandfunk on Friday: "We shouldn't pump extra money into these states, but rather make sure they continue along the reform path.  "I'd be grateful if (ECB President Mario) Mr Draghi would make statements along these lines."  In an interview with German financial daily Handelsblatt published on Friday, Draghi urged politicians to implement necessary reforms, reduce tax burdens and cut red tape to support a fragile euro zone recovery.
He also said the risk of the central bank not fulfilling its price stability mandate was higher now than half a year ago, and reiterated its readiness to act soon if needed, with government bond purchases among the tools it could use.  With the euro zone flirting with deflation, financial markets interpreted Draghi's comments on Friday as strongly suggesting the ECB would soon embark on outright money-printing, and the euro sank to a 4-1/2 year low against the dollar.  Printing money to buy government bonds, a measure known as quantitative easing (QE), is seen as one of the last tools the ECB has to revive inflation. The bank has already pushed its key interest rate down to a record low of 0.05 percent and doubts are growing about the impact of earlier measures.
"I expect there to be fierce discussion over this at the next ECB meeting," said Fuchs, referring to opposition to the bond-buying plan by the head of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann. The ECB's next policy meeting is on Jan. 22.  Fuchs has frequently expressed frustration felt by many German politicians and the public about the pace of reform in twice-bailed-out Greece.
He was quoted as saying in a newspaper interview published on Wednesday that euro zone politicians were not obliged to rescue Greece as the country was no longer of systemic importance to the single currency bloc.  Greece holds a general election just three days after the ECB meeting and polls suggest the left-wing Syriza party, which rejects the terms of Greece's euro zone bailouts, will emerge as the strongest party. 
Reuters...
Do you think that Americans, Chinese, Russians will let the Germans to prosper from now on? --- The answer is NO.
Do you think that Europe will help the Germans? --- The answer is NO.
Do you think that Europe will forget the arrogance and loans-debt-injustice-blackmailing forced to their children for 100 years or more by Germans ? --- The answer is NO.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

BEIJING (AFP) -  China has appointed a top official of the ruling party's propaganda department as president of the Xinhua news agency, the key mouthpiece of the Communist state.
The appointment of Cai Mingzhao, a vice director of the propaganda department, is the latest of several replacements in the party's key information and media agencies over the past year.
Cai, 59, replaced Li Congjun, who turned 65 in October and reached the age limit for ministerial-level posts, the agency said in a statement on Wednesday.  Cai is "politically sober and firm, keeps an appropriate grasp in guiding public opinion and conscientiously aligns himself with the party's central committee", the statement quoted Pan Ligang, a deputy head of the party's Organisation Department, as saying.  Cai was previously head of the information office of the State Council, China's cabinet.  He worked for Xinhua for 23 years from 1978, reports said, first as a journalist and later promoted to managerial level. On Sunday, Luo Shugang, a vice director of the Propaganda Department, took over from Cai Wu as culture minister.
In April, Yang Zhenwu was appointed the new president of the People's Daily, the party's flagship newspaper.   Xinhua was founded in 1931 and started using its current name in 1937. It is headquartered in Beijing and has more than 180 outlets overseas, according to the agency's website.
The agency has a virtual monopoly on the distribution of information for the Chinese domestic market.
Global consumption of crude oil grew from around 83.2 million barrels a day to 90.4 million in the 10-years from 2004 to 2013, according to the EIA. With the exceptions of 2008 and 2009, when the global financial crisis stifled economic growth in much of the world, oil consumption has been rising, but about 65% of the increase is from the developing economies of China and India. China consumed about 6.44 million barrels a day in 2004 and 10.12 million barrels a day in 2013, while India added about a million barrels a day of consumption in the same period.
About 80% of world oil consumption is attributable to transportation by road, rail, sea and air. As a transportation fuel, products derived from oil are difficult to replace due to their high energy content, their transportability and their relative safety.
As a fuel for generating electricity, oil’s role has largely been relegated to one of meeting peak demand for short periods, but there are some exceptions. Saudi Arabia, for instance, currently generates 100% its electricity by burning oil or natural gas. Japan, following its nuclear disaster in 2011, is another temporary exception.
Among many developed countries, oil consumption is falling, due in part to slow economic growth that tamps down demand for crude. Another contributor to slowing demand is more fuel-efficient motor vehicles. As for future demand projections, it is too early to know how much of the decline in consumption is due to structural changes like more fuel-efficient vehicles and how much to a weak global economy. The answer to those questions will indicate both the direction and the strength of crude oil demand in the years to come.

Monday, January 5, 2015

Now that the Bank of England has openly admitted that Commercial Banks create money out of thin air when they make loans - they lend money that they don't have - I thought it would be worth pointing out clearly what this means in the case of soveriegn debt. You have probably heard the story that Commercial Banks are supposed to have a certain amount of capital to back up their loans. You often hear that Banks can only generate about 10 times as much in loans as they have deposits....Well, this is quite clearly wrong.  Take a look at the 192 page document published by the Bank for International Settlements on "Minimum Capital Requirements".  Starting on page 19  you can find the details of how credit risk is calculated. First we learn that there are two different systems in use. "The Committee permits banks a choice between two broad methodologies for calculating their capital requirements for credit risk. One alternative, the Standardized   Approach, will be to measure credit risk in a standardised manner, supported by external credit assessments. The other alternative, the Internal Ratings-based Approach, which is subject to the explicit approval of the bank’s supervisor, would allow banks to use their internal rating  systems for credit risk." Then we get to hear how how the standardised approach works. Here's a table showing how the risk weighting works for lending to governments.

Yes, you have read that correctly. When a Government has a rating between AAA and AA-, the risk weighting is 0%. Here is a map of Standard & Poors credit ratings for European Countries (you can find similar graphs for Fitch's and Moody's.

So, if you are in countries like the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark, commercial banks can create unlimited amounts of "money" to make their loans - WITH NO CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS AT ALL.
And then, those Banks can sit back and collect the interest on that loan made with non existent money. Those interest payments have cost a fortune - as you can see in the table I compiled last year.
Even when the Banks create money to lend to countries that are rock-solid like Germany, they still get to rake in a fortune in interest. German taxpayers have handed over €1,174 billion since 1995. Italian taxpayers have handed over €1,433 billion. French taxpayers have handed over €835 billion. And so on.  Isn't this the most incredible racket you have ever heard of? By comparison, Mafia mobsters going round local shops and demanding money for "protection" is nothing.
Here we have the Banks lending unlimited amounts of inexistant money to governments with ZERO risk, and "earning" interest. And of course, if any government was to complain, they would soon pay for it by discovering that all of a sudden, their interest payments went up from a couple of percent, to 27% (like it did for Greece in 2012). As I say, the Mafia are small fry compared with this.
This has to stop. It cannot be justified.

Sunday, January 4, 2015

Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras (bottom right) and other opposition MPs applauded the result of the vote
Shortly after the vote, Mr Samaras announced that elections would take place on 25 January.
"The country has no time to waste," he said in a televised address.
Mr Dimas, a former European commissioner, secured the votes of only 168 MPs, the same number he had won during the second vote last week.
The government failed to attract the support of two smaller parties, Independent Greeks and Democratic Left, which it needed to win the vote.
The defeat is regarded as a major setback for the prime minister, as well as for eurozone countries that worked hard to bring Greece back from the brink in 2010.
Since then €240bn (£188bn; $290bn) has been spent helping Greece pay off its debts. In return for two major bailouts, the EU and IMF demanded stringent austerity measures.
Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras praised the vote as a "historic day for Greek democracy" and Independent Greeks leader Panos Kammenos said the era in which Mr Samaras and his coalition partners had "surrendered" Greece's sovereignty was now over.
A party colleague of Mr Samaras, Dora Bakoyiannis, bitterly accused Syriza of forcing the vote at the worst possible moment for the Greek economy.

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Motivele Curtii de la Luxemburg pentru respingerea aderarii UE la CEDO tin de o serie intreaga de aspecte, printre care: La CEDO adera doar state, iar Uniunea Europeana "nu poate fi considerata ca fiind un stat".  "Aceasta aderare trebuie sa tina seama de caracteristicile particulare ale Uniunii, ceea ce este tocmai ceea ce impun conditiile pe care tratatele insele le-au prevazut in vederea aderarii".
 
  • Aderarea este susceptibil sa aduca atingere caracteristicilor specifice si autonomiei dreptului Uniunii si nu previne riscul de a aduce atingere principiului increderii reciproce intre statele membre in dreptul Uniunii.
  • Aderarea este susceptibila sa aduca atingere articolului 344 din Tratatul prifind Functionarea UE, deoarece nu exclude posibilitatea ca litigiile dintre statele membre sau dintre acestea si Uniune referitoare la aplicarea CEDO in domeniul de aplicare material al dreptului Uniunii sa fie deduse judecatii Curtii Europene a Drepturilor Omului.
  • Acordul de aderare nu prevede modalitati de functionare a mecanismului coparatului si a procedurii implicarii prealabile a Curtii care sa permita conservarea caracteristicilor specifice ale Uniunii si ale dreptului sau.
  • Acordul de aderare a UE la CEDO nu tine seama de caracteristicile specifice ale dreptului Uniunii in ceea ce priveste controlul jurisdictional al actelor, actiunilor sau omisiunilor in materie de Politica Externa si Securitate  Comuna (PESC), deoarece incredinteaza controlul jurisdictional al unora dintre aceste acte, actiuni sau omisiuni exclusiv unui organ extern Uniunii.
  • CJUE subliniaza ca, in masura in care conventia CEDO confera partilor contractante posibilitatea de a prevedea standarde de protectie mai ridicate decat cele garantate de conventie, trebuie sa se asigure o coordonare intre CEDO si Carta drepturilor fndamentale a UE. Astfel, atunci cand drepturile recunoscute de carta UE corespund unor drepturi garantate de CEDO, "posibilitatea conferita de CEDO statelor membre trebuie sa ramana limitata la ceea ce este necesar pentru a evita compromiterea nivelului de protectie prevazut de carta, precum si suprematia, unitatea si caracterul efectiv al dreptului Uniunii". Curtea de Justitei a UE constata, insa, ca in proiectul acorduluid e a derare a UE la CEDO nu s-a prevazut nicio dispozitie pentru a asigura coordonarea intre Carta UE si conventia CEDO.