Friday, August 21, 2015

There's an interesting symmetry between the Greek and German parliaments. So far, Syriza has lost a chunk of its own MPs during debates, but it's counted on the support of the Opposition to get through its prior actions (at least, the selected few measures it's presented so far). The angry mob outside the Vouli is ignored.Merkel too knows that even with the angry dissent of many of 'her own' CDU MPs she has the supine SPD as part of the Grand Coalition, jumping nearly as high as she dictates, with only the unpopular Gyzi and die Linke opposing her.  That the Bundestag is acting against the will of 85% of the German people seems not to worry its MPs at all.  Only concerted opposition from CDU and SPD against their own leaderships would change anything in the Bundestag. or new elections.
Ditto in Greece,, It seems Greek MPs are also "completely in the dark" about whether Greece will receive any debt relief - and if yes, when. I've just got off the phone with Costas Lapavitsas, a Syriza MP and professor of economics at SOAS university in London, who has described today's agreement in principle as "outrageous", misleading and based on policies that have failed over the past five years.  He described claims by officials that Greece will avoid austerity measures worth around €20bn because of the relaxed primary surplus targets attached to the new debt deal as "wrong".
He said the debt deal had "bypassed democratic procedure" because MPs had not been consulted before it was announced. "When were these conclusions [on prior actions and targets] made? Who decided on that? It's outrageous, it's absolutaely outrageous," he said. 

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Alexis Tsipras resigns and calls September snap election !!!!!!!!!!!
Embattled prime minister will stand down after losing backing from his MPs over Greece's punishing new bail-out agreement ... The rumour mill is well under way, with talk suggesting that speaker of the Greek parliament Zoe Constantopoulou will join a breakaway Leftist faction. Ms Constantopoulou has been a constant thorn in the side of the PM, and is one of the most vocal critics of the new bail-out deal in the government.  However, former minister Yanis Varoufakis - who is not affiliated with the Left Platform - is likely to stick by his prime minister and current finance chief Euclid Tsakolotos.  An election will create more political uncertainty, delay economic recovery and impede reform implementation.  However, it appears to be unavoidable if Greece is to have a government committed to implementing the bail-out agreement. An election will give Mr Tsipras the opportunity to secure a mandate for the reform programme and remove troublesome left-wingers from parliament.  Under Greek electoral law, if an election is held within 18 months of the previous poll, the order in which candidates are listed on ballots is also the order in which they are elected, and that order is set by the party leader.  The mind-boggling scope of the reforms in the new agreement, which extend into virtually every area of the economy and polity, exceed anything visited upon even the post-communist states of eastern Europe. The referendum result of 5 July, in which 61pc of voters rejected austerity measures demanded by Greece's creditors, revealed that there is a large body of opinion that is prepared to countenance a break with the euro. In coming months and years, support for remaining within the euro zone "at all costs" will diminish significantly.

Market growth means in fact INFLATION !!!!!

"An estimated $4 trillion has been wiped off the value of Chinese equities in just three weeks earlier this year, although they are still higher than they were this time a year ago."  China's stock markets swung wildly on Wednesday as the authorities battled to restore investor confidence.  Shares on China’s main market - the Shanghai Composite - ended the day 1.2pc higher having earlier plunged by as much as 5pc. 
The recovery late in the day was apparently due to state-backed companies gobbling up shares as trading drew to a close.  A turbulent day on the markets reflected concerns that the housing market could be overheating, and that Beijing might stop propping up equity prices. They have been doing so for weeks. Not only the Chinese though, Swiss, UK and USA. There are NO markets anymore; there is NO price discovery anymore and how can you quantify risk in a market that is so distorted. This will not end nicely. They already tried this back in 1929 and they never altered the trend then. If you don't read history you are condemned to repeat it...Remind me what percentage growth is the American economy growing at & how much overseas owned debt does it have & how much are American stocks over-valued by & how much has the dollar been devalued over a similar period of time?...Some experts had been expecting China to boost exports in a bid to shore up growth. Beijing's decision to weaken the Yuan - also known as the renminbi - last week appeared to support this view, as a weaker currency should make China's exports cheaper. However, the Commerce Ministry appeared to quash this theory on Wednesday by saying that China’s exports could continue falling in the months to come. Analysts at Barclays expect that China’s moves will just be the first steps in a larger depreciation of the Yuan, which they expect to fall by 6pc against the dollar by the end of the year. The devaluation added to concerns that the world’s second-largest economy is in a more fragile state than official numbers reveal. Chinese officials are targeting economic growth of 7pc this year, though many China watchers estimate that growth is far more tepid than Beijing’s GDP numbers would suggest. Fears of a “hard landing” for Chinese growth have plagued stocks the world over.
 

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

It was once seen as a British disease. But Euroscepticism has  now spread across the continent like a virus. As data from  Eurobarometer shows, trust in the European project has fallen even faster than growth rates. Since the beginning of the euro crisis, trust in the European Union has fallen fro  +10 to -22 percent in France, from +20 to -29 percent in  Germany, from +30 to -22 percent in Italy, from +42 to -52  percent in Spain, from +50 to +6 percent in Poland, and from -13 to -49 percent in the United Kingdom.  What is so striking is that everyone in the EU has been losing  faith in the project: both creditors and debtors, and Eurozone  countries, would-be members, and “opt-outs”

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

There's an interesting symmetry between the Greek and German parliaments. So far, Syriza has lost a chunk of its own MPs during debates, but it's counted on the support of the Opposition to get through its prior actions (at least, the selected few measures it's presented so far). The angry mob outside the Vouli is ignored.Merkel too knows that even with the angry dissent of many of 'her own' CDU MPs she has the supine SPD as part of the Grand Coalition, jumping nearly as high as she dictates, with only the unpopular Gyzi and die Linke opposing her.  That the Bundestag is acting against the will of 85% of the German people seems not to worry its MPs at all.  Only concerted opposition from CDU and SPD against their own leaderships would change anything in the Bundestag. or new elections.
Ditto in Greece,, It seems Greek MPs are also "completely in the dark" about whether Greece will receive any debt relief - and if yes, when. I've just got off the phone with Costas Lapavitsas, a Syriza MP and professor of economics at SOAS university in London, who has described today's agreement in principle as "outrageous", misleading and based on policies that have failed over the past five years.  He described claims by officials that Greece will avoid austerity measures worth around €20bn because of the relaxed primary surplus targets attached to the new debt deal as "wrong".

Monday, August 17, 2015

Finland could stay out of a planned third bailout deal for Greece, the Nordic country's Eurosceptic foreign minister said on Saturday, amid calls from his nationalist party, The Finns, for a more critical stance toward the EU.  Finland has taken one of the hardest lines against bailouts among euro zone members, and got even tougher in May when The Finns joined a new center-right coalition. Of course we can stay out of (the third bailout), that is possible," Timo Soini told Reuters on the sidelines of his party's congress.  "We're really out of patience ... Our government has a very tight policy on this. We will not accept increasing Finland's liabilities, or cuts in Greece's debts."  Athens is racing to wrap up agreement on a bailout worth up to 86 billion euros within days, hoping to receive a first disbursement in time to make a debt repayment to the European Central Bank.  Finland has said it could accept a deal under which the EU's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, would be used only within its current capacity.  At a meeting of euro zone finance ministers last month, Finland supported the idea of a temporary 'Grexit' - Greece leaving the bloc - but eventually accepted that new loan talks could begin.  "If we vote against a deal, it goes to the emergency procedure, and a package is implemented regardless of us," Soini said, referring to a clause in the fund that allows measures to be passed without unanimous approval if stability is deemed to be at risk.  "I don't believe that this (bailout) policy will provide solutions, and I think that, in the longer term, 'Grexit' is the most likely scenario."  Soini's party, formerly known as True Finns, has risen from obscurity within just a few years to become the second-biggest parliament group in an election last April.   Its criticisms of the EU and its calls for tougher restrictions on immigration have resonated among many citizens as Finland struggles with recession and rising unemployment.
But the party had to make compromises as it agreed for the first time to enter government, teaming up with millionaire prime minister Juha Sipila's Centre party and the pro-EU National Coalition party.  Lately, The Finns has stirred controversy with a Facebook post by one of its lawmakers that called for a fight against multiculturalism.  The congress on Saturday re-elected Soini as party leader, but replaced one of his three deputies with hardline EU opponent Sebastian Tynkkynen, who said the party should not soften its positions.  "We must start thinking whether we should be in government at any cost," Tynkkynen said.  "The party must become more critical towards the EU, and demand the return of an independent monetary policy."  Erkka Railo, a political scientist at the University of Turku, said he believed the compromises that had to be made in government would inevitably cost The Finns some of their support.  "Nevertheless, the party has established its position and will probably be a significant force in politics for years to come," he said.

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Chinese policymakers have been engaged in a gargantuan effort to switch their export-dependent economy, reliant on volatile international demand, to another engine: consumer spending at home. At the same time, they are battling to bring more competition and free market approaches to stodgy state industries; and to tackle the legacy of an unsustainable borrowing binge, including bubbles in the property and stock markets.  These would be a formidable set of challenges for any political leaders, and while the state of the Chinese economy is hard to assess, a number of warning signs have been flashing, including a share price plunge on a scale reminiscent of the US’s 1929 Wall Street crash and most recently, an 8.3% drop in exports in July.  Official figures show GDP growth in line with Beijing’s 7% target; but Fathom’s analysts, who study other measures, such as electricity usage and freight volumes, say it appears to be closer to 4%. Britton describes the depreciation as “China, doubling-down on its bet,” and warned: “If we are right about the hardness of the landing they’re facing, you ain’t seen nothing yet.”  Adam Posen, of the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, says China’s motivation may only become clear over time, but markets will be asking themselves “is depreciation a side-effect of liberalization or is liberalization cover for devaluation?”  But whatever the reasons behind it, Beijing’s economic gear shift will have far-reaching effects. Not everyone is as apocalyptic as Edwards; but he believes the new wave of deflation emanating from China could “overwhelm already struggling corporate profitability and take us back into outright recession”.  “As investors realize yet another recession beckons, without any normalization of either interest rates or fiscal imbalances in this cycle, expect a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008.”