Monday, January 4, 2016

Bail ins are coming. ALL major banks are technically insolvent as they have exposure to derivatives and cds than actual assets- if they were normal businesses they would be allowed or forced to fold. All taxpayers are still technically on the hook, previously a government would foot the bill and pass on the cost, now it's depositors actual money at risk, money which in law is a credit to the bank, not legally owned by the depositor- the account holder. Many derivatives contracts are linked to oil prices or interest rates and as the worldwide economy is tanking, and there is plenty of evidence for this, these contracts WILL take down some big players. JPMorgan, citi, BoA, Deutsch bank, and many others use off book accounting to hide their actual liabilities and the whole cabal is fraudulent on an unbelievable scale. When confidence in the system falls, it will collapse and trillions in wealth will be confiscated.
The global monetary system was designed by bankers for bankers and they get a cut at every step in the process.
They are given the privilege of creating money out of thin air (fractional reserve banking), which they can then lend out and charge interest on.
There is only one task they have to carry out and that is to lend the money prudently to people that can pay them back plus the interest.
Could it be any easier, with no manufacturing, supply and distribution chains to worry about?
What are bankers like at prudent lending?
“What is wrong with lending more money into the Chinese stock market?” Chinese banker recently
“What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?” Chinese banker last year
“What is wrong with lending more money to Greece?” European banker pre-2010
“What is wrong with a NINA (no income no asset) mortgage?” US banker pre-2008
“What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?” US banker pre-2008
“What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?” Irish banker pre-2008
“What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?” Spanish banker pre-2008
“What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?” Japanese banker pre-1989
“What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?” UK banker pre-1989
“What is wrong with lending more money into the US stock market?” US banker pre-1929
Globally incompetent at the only job they have to do.
Shouldn’t we be asking why bankers are so useless rather than bailing them out?

Sunday, January 3, 2016

It’s an idea whose adherents over the centuries have ranged from socialists to libertarians to far-right mavericks. It was first proposed by Thomas Paine in his 1797 pamphlet, Agrarian Justice, as a system in which at the “age of majority” everyone would receive an equal capital grant, a “basic income” handed over by the state to each and all, no questions asked, to do with what they wanted.
■ A “basic income”, first proposed by Thomas Paine is an income unconditionally granted to all on an individual basis, without any means test or requirement to work.
■ It is paid irrespective of any income from other sources.
■ It is paid without requiring the performance of any work or the willingness to accept a job.
■ Advocates say it will allow people to genuinely choose what sort of employment they take, and to retrain when they wish.
■ Its proponents also claim that a basic income scheme is one of the most simple benefits models, and will reduce all the bureaucracy surrounding the welfare state, making it less complex and much cheaper to administer.

Saturday, January 2, 2016

The number of people forcibly displaced worldwide is likely to have "far surpassed" a record 60 million this year, mainly driven by the Syrian war and other protracted conflicts, the United Nations said on Friday.  The estimated figure includes 20.2 million refugees fleeing wars and persecution, the most since 1992, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said in a report.

Nearly 2.5 million asylum seekers have requests pending, with Germany, Russia and the United States receiving the highest numbers of the nearly one million new claims lodged in the first half of the year, it said.  "2015 is on track to see worldwide forced displacement exceeding 60 million for the first time - 1 in every 122 humans is today someone who has been forced to flee their homes," it said. The total figure at the end of 2014 was 59.5 million. An estimated 34 million people were internally displaced as of mid-year, about 2 million more than the same time in 2014. Yemen, where civil war erupted in March, reported the highest number of newly uprooted people at 933,500.  "Never has there been a greater need for tolerance, compassion and solidarity with people who have lost everything," Antonio Guterres, U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, said in a statement.  Developing countries bordering conflict zones still host the lion's share of the refugees, the report said, warning about growing "resentment" and "politicization of refugees".  The report, based on official figures as of mid-year before the influx of refugees and migrants crossing the Mediterranean to reach Europe peaked in October, extrapolates from trends to estimate the global total. Syria's civil war that began in 2011 has been the main driver of mass displacement, with more than 4.2 million Syrian refugees having fled abroad and 7.6 million uprooted within their shattered homeland as of mid-year, UNHCR said.  Together, nationals of Syria and Ukraine, where a separatist rebellion in the east erupted in April 2014, accounted for half of the 839,000 people who became refugees in the first half of 2015, it said.  Violence in Afghanistan, Somalia and South Sudan sparked large refugee movements, as well as fighting in Burundi, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Iraq. Voluntary returns - a measure of how many refugees can safely go back home - are at their lowest levels in more than three decades, with only 84,000 people returning by mid-year against 107,000 at the same time a year before, the UNHCR said. Many refugees will live in exile for years to come, it said. "In effect, if you become a refugee today your chances of going home are lower than at any time in more than 30 years."

Friday, January 1, 2016

Crude oil price trend  - January WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures are trading below the psychological mark of $35 per barrel. Prices have been moving within the narrow range of $34–$37 per barrel for the last five trading sessions. Crude oil prices are following a long-term falling trend. The consensus of rising crude oil inventory at Cushing, Oklahoma, is weighing on crude oil prices. Support and resistance - Short covering and bargain buying could support crude oil prices. The next resistance level for oil prices could be $40 per barrel. In contrast, record production from Russia and Saudi Arabia could drag crude oil prices to record lows. Crude oil prices could see support at $34 per barrel. Prices tested this mark in December 2008. January 2016 crude oil futures contracts expire on December 20, 2015. Bearish traders could cover their shorts ahead of the expiration.Oil price estimates - Reuter’s surveys suggest Brent crude oil prices could average $57.95 per barrel in 2016. Likewise, US crude oil prices are expected to average $53.73 per barrel. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), Eni, Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC), and Hess Corporation (HES) reported huge losses in 3Q15. The trend might continue in 4Q15 due to record-low prices in December. Russia’s Ministry of Energy estimates that crude oil prices could average around $55 per barrel in 2016. The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) forecasts that Brent crude oil prices could average $56 per barrel and that WTI crude oil prices could average $51 per barrel in 2016.
ETFs like the iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (IEO) and the PowerShares DWA Energy Momentum Portfolio (PXI) are affected by volatility in the crude oil market.

Thursday, December 31, 2015

Bumper growth will put Britain on course to become the world's fourth largest economic powerhouse ahead of an ageing Japan and Germany in the 2030s, according to the Cebr's latest world economic league table. The total cash value of the UK economy will grow to around $4.7 trillion by 2031, but is expected to be quickly overtaken by Brazil in fourth spot by the 2040s.  UK economic growth is set to hit 2.9pc this year, the second fastest in the advanced world after the United States. It means the economy is now 6.1pc larger than its pre-financial crisis peak. The Treasury said the Cebr's analysis was evidence the Government's long-term economic plan was working.  "With the deficit reduced by almost two thirds as a share of GDP since its peak in 2009-10, an average of 1,000 extra people in work each day, the government’s plan for more prosperous future is delivering for working people", said a spokeswoman. The only thing one can say with certainty is that economic forecasts are less accurate than weather forecasts, and we all know how accurate they are. If one takes France as an example and directly compares it with the UK one will find than France has a better road system, a better rail system, a better education system and a better health system. (It does not have a better political system). You will argue that they are all bankrupt or about to go bankrupt. I will respond 'so what'. I know it's Christmas and they have to fill the pages but this is not only nonsense but dangerous nonsense and I don't like tempting the Gods; nevertheless I hope it's true; but don't count on it.

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

The arrival of sub-$40-a-barrel oil has caused more than a few members of the OPEC cartel to splutter about the need to cut production to force prices higher. So far, Saudi Arabia isn’t listening.The strategy is to keep pumping, apparently in the hope of forcing the US shale industry – whose impact Opec underestimated as late as 2011 – to curb production. Non-Saudi members may therefore be alarmed that even the organisation’s own economists don’t exactly envisage US shale producers being forced to their knees....Indeed, the projections show North American tight oil volumes increasing from 4.4m barrels a day at present to 5.2m barrels in 2020. From a Saudi perspective, that forecast could be taken as yet another reason to keep pumping to protect Opec’s share of the market.  One of these years, lower levels of investment, which always follow lower prices, could produce a spike in prices and the report, rightly, warns of the danger. It suggests $10tn (£6.7tn) of investment will be needed between now and 2040 and that the “right signals” – meaning higher prices – will be required.  But a spike in 2016? That is hard to imagine while Opec’s members squabble before the Saudis get their way...The oil price has bugger all to do with stopping fracking. How could that be the reason when low prices hurt both US fracking investments and Saudi wealth... Saudi Arabia being almost entirely dependent on oil to finance government expnediture. Look further at Iran and Russia. The US used low oil prices to help to bring about the economic collapse of the USSR and are merely trying to do the same thing again. The Saudis are just doing what they are told.

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Spain should be taken over by an newly independent Scotland and Russia should take over Germany. Australia should take control of the United States of America, with Norway taking control of Australia. Brazil should govern China, with England taking over Brazil. And England should be governed by Poland. There should be a one-world currency called 'Kossuth', named after the old Hungarian Soviet-era beer that took its name from Hungary's patriotic leader of the 19th century...All the mainstream parties in Spain are hopelessly corrupt. If Iglesias brings podemos into a coalition govt with the PSOE, his future will be counted in months, not years. BTW too much provincial left right bickering here. The real problem is Austrian School economics to which both the left and right adhere, especially in the France of president Flamby!!