Tuesday, March 1, 2016

The European Parliament backs the monetary policy carried out by the European Central Bank to guarantee price stability but warns that its effect won't last without structural reforms, budgetary discipline and productive investments in the Member States. Moreover, the risks of the ECB's unconventional measures need to be monitored carefully, the European Parliament cautions in its Annual Report on the European Central Bank.  Tom Vandenkendelaere MEP, Shadow Rapporteur and Member of the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, calls for a multi-tiered approach to stimulate growth and job creation: "We support the ECB's efforts to increase inflation to under but close to 2%, and its policy to increase the supply of money is slowly yielding results. However, we should not be blind to the risks of this approach and carefully monitor for negative side effects. In addition, Member States should deliver on their part and carry through the necessary reforms and productive investments to boost economic growth and employment."
Tom Vandenkendelaere is appreciative of the ECB's efforts to increase transparency and maintain close ties with the European Parliament: "Thanks to the ECB's efforts on greater transparency, most central banks are now in the habit of explaining important monetary decisions to the wider public."

Monday, February 29, 2016

Shares in Deutsche Bank tumbled another 4.7pc on Tuesday. The bank’s shares fell to €13.26 and are now down 46pc since the start of the year and 58pc in the last six months. Last month the bank reported a €6.8bn (£5.3bn) loss for 2015.  Deutsche has led the wider banking market down as fears spread over the profitability and financial stability of Germany’s biggest bank. Yesterday Swiss institution Credit Suisse’s shares were down by almost as much, plunging 7.75pc. Spooked investors also sold off shares in other banks, leaving Barclays down 5.2pc, BNP Paribas down 4.8pc and Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo down 4.9pc.  The turmoil in stock markets since the start of the year has been driven in part by worries over the strength of China’s economy as well as the crash in commodities prices, but investors are particularly concerned by the banking sector’s ability to cope with another downturn.  Investors have also been fleeing Deutsche’s bonds. Analysts have warned that if the bank has any large unexpected costs it may, from next year, be unable to pay the interest on its contingent convertible bonds (or “cocos”). The relatively risky class of securities - also known as AT1s - is designed to ensure that institutional investors pay the bill to help bail out any troubled bank, rather than the taxpayer...Dump Bank shares and any government paper. If you are old enough to cash out your pension... do it. Pension funds here in the UK have about a 650 billion hole in them and growing because of ZIRP and NIRP. Most of them will have sovereign bonds that have yet to blow up.

Sunday, February 28, 2016

The ECB is to discuss whether to expand its stimulus measures at its next meeting March 10. Draghi said there were "a variety of instruments" the ECB could employ if it decided more is needed. It could increase its 60 billion euros in monthly bond purchases with newly printed money, a step aimed at driving down already low interest rates and raising inflation that remains too low at 0.4 percent.
He expressed some frustration with governments that have held back spending at a time of economic weakness. He urged governments that are in better shape financially to spend more on public investment that would increase grow and to avoid excessive taxation.
Monetary policy from the central bank "is the only truly stimulative policy over the past four years," he said. ECB officials have warned governments not to rely just on central bank stimulus to boost the modest eurozone recovery.

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Frankfurt, Germany • European Central Bank head Mario Draghi says some eurozone banks "face challenges" but that the system is more resilient due to oversight that was strengthened after the global financial crisis.  Draghi said Monday that thanks to new supervision at the European Union level, banks were in a position to bring down the amount of bad loans burdening their finances "in an orderly manner over the next few years."  His comments in the European Parliament follow a week of violent swings in the stock prices of major European banks including Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale. Draghi said some banks faced challenges from litigation and restructuring costs as well as working off soured investments.  The recent sharp drops in stock prices reflected fears banks might be exposed to risks in commodity producing markets, companies and countries. Commodity prices have dropped amid fears about the health of the global economy. Draghi said the situation was "amplified" by perceptions that banks may have difficulty adjusting to an economy with lower growth and lower interest rates. Low interest rates, in part the result of central bank policies, have squeezed bank earnings by narrowing the difference between the rate at which they borrow and the rate at which they lend.

Friday, February 26, 2016

Gideon plan A has failed us all. If we don't start investing soon we truly will be under that water. Investing in social housing will create jobs, investing in hospitals will create jobs, investing in transport will create jobs. Investing in some Tory friends crooked business or awarding contracts will not create jobs, just angry bitterness that the taxpayer is being ripped off by the Tories yet again. Any investing from now on in, needs to be for the tax paying people, who after all is paying for it. There really needs to be a public run accountability body to approve spending by any government and to check that the politicians are not linked in some way or another to a certain company or holding shares or family and friends have an interest. We really need to clean up Parliament corruption....I would turn around and say though...What on Earth do you mean by less austerity? There is no austerity, merely less, marginally less credit expansion. Now, I'm firmly in the camp of a annual social wage. So, don't be calling me some kind of crazy neoliberal, race to the bottom type, but let's not lose track of reality. Classical economics has collapsed, period. Droning on about cuts, cuts, cuts, misses the bloody great gorilla in the room, namely that without credit expansion the global economy would have never recovered, let alone prospered after the first oil shock of 1973. The rest of history, real history, since has been about growing credit roughly online with productive output, minus 10% to keep the Poles in-line.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

The European Commission has cut its forecast for economic growth in the eurozone this year. It has cut its prediction for the 19-country bloc in 2016 to 1.7% from the 1.8% it had forecast in November.  That figure would still mark a moderate increase from the figure of 1.6% in 2015. The Commission said government spending had been unexpectedly high because of the number of migrants arriving in Europe, which had boosted GDP.  But it warned that the crisis posed "major political challenges" that could undercut growth if not properly handled.  And vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said: "Europe's moderate growth is facing increasing headwinds, from slower growth in emerging markets such as China, to weak global trade and geopolitical tensions in Europe's neighborhood."  "It is important to continue structural reforms that can help our economies grow, withstand shocks in the future and improve job opportunities for our population." The Commission cut its inflation forecast for this year from 1.0% to 0.5%, even further below the European Central Bank's target of about 2%. Consumer prices fell by 0.3% in 2015, largely as a result of the fall in energy prices.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

The US dollar has suffered one of the sharpest drops in 20 years as the Federal Reserve signals a retreat from monetary tightening, igniting a powerful rally for commodities and easing a ferocious squeeze on dollar debtors in China and emerging markets. The closely-watched dollar index (DXY) has fallen 3pc this week to 96.44 and given up all its gains since late October. This has instant effects on the world’s inter-connected financial system, today more geared to the US exchange rate and Fed policy than at any time in modern history. David Bloom, from HSBC, said the blistering dollar rally of the past three years is largely over and may go into reverse as weak economic figures in the US force the Fed to pare back four rate rises loosely planned for this year. A more dovish Fed and a weaker dollar is a bitter-sweet turn for the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank as they try to push down their currencies to stave off deflation. Their task has become even harder. The euro has rocketed by more than 3pc this week to $1.12 against the dollar. In trade-weighted terms the euro is 5pc higher than it was in March, when the ECB began quantitative easing, showing just how difficult it has become for authorities to drive down their exchange rates. Everybody is playing the same game. Global recession is now a certainty.  The only question is how soon? For the Europe,  it spells Armageddon.  Once the housing bubble bursts and those 2 million zero hours minimum wage service sector jobs disappear very rapidly, a Sterling crisis, bank bust and we have to beg for an IMF bailout will rapidly follow.