
Thursday, May 26, 2016

Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Three-month interbank offered rates in Riyadh have suddenly begun to spiral upwards, reaching the highest since the Lehman crisis in 2008. Reports that the Saudi government is to pay contractors with tradable IOUs show how acute the situation is becoming. The debt-crippled bin Laden group is laying off 50,000 construction workers as austerity bites in earnest. Societe Generale’s currency team has advised clients to short the Saudi riyal, betting that the country will be forced to ditch its long-standing dollar peg, a move that could set off a cut-throat battle for global share in the oil markets. Francisco Blanch, from Bank of America, said a rupture of the peg is this year’s number one “black swan event” and would cause oil prices to collapse to $25 a barrel. Saudi Arabia’s foreign reserves are still falling by $10bn (£6.9bn) a month, despite a switch to bond sales and syndicated loans to help plug the huge budget deficit. Can Saudi Arabia weather the current storm? The country’s remaining reserves of $582bn are in theory ample – if they are really liquid – but that is not the immediate issue. The problem for the Saudi central bank (SAMA) is that reserve depletion automatically tightens monetary policy. Bank deposits are contracting. So is the M2 money supply. Domestic bond sales do not help because they crowd out Saudi Arabia’s wafer-thin capital markets and squeeze liquidity. Riyadh now plans a global bond issue. While crude prices have rallied 80pc to almost $50 a barrel since mid-February, this has not yet been enough to ease Saudi Arabia’s financial crunch. The rebound in crude is increasingly fragile in any case as tough talk from the US Federal Reserve sends the dollar soaring, and Canada prepares to restore 1.2m barrels a day (b/d) of lost output. “We feel that markets have moved too high, too far, too soon. We still face a large inventory overhang and supply outages are reversible,” said BNP Paribas. Total chief Patrick Pouyanne told the French senate last week that prices could deflate as fast as they rose. “The market won’t come back into balance until the end of the year,” he said. Mr Pouyanne said the collapse in annual oil and gas investment to $400bn – from $700bn in 2014 – would lead to a global shortage of 5m barrels by 2020 and another wild spike in prices, but first the glut has to be cleared. The oil rally is now at a make-or-break juncture. A growing number of oil traders warn that speculative purchases of “paper barrels” by hedge funds have decoupled from fundamentals. There is usually a seasonal slide in demand over the late summer.
Monday, May 23, 2016
Moody's said the eurozone debt crisis had made policymakers more reluctant to cede sovereignty, while "significant fiscal union" was "off the table". "The process of further integration seemingly relies on further shocks almost by design," it said. Brussels' flagship growth plan also faced significant difficulties as countries with room to invest refused to increase public spending, while fear of further bail-outs meant the banking union remained incomplete, it added. Moody's said the Greek crisis also remained a big threat to the eurozone and EU. "The risk of “accidents” remains high in a process that suffers from partial solutions and, increasingly, public scepticism," it said.
"Crises can be great catalysts for change, and this has been the case in the euro area. "Still, significant vulnerabilities remain - with 'Brexit' and 'Grexit' still key risks. In a period of relative financial calm, the political will to further pool sovereignty evaporates quickly, and it is only against the alternative of a break-up of the existing system that further measures come back into consideration." "There are no empires in Europe any more and our leaders would do well not to try to recreate one." The economics professor added that the global economy would be in "deep trouble" if interest rates remained at their record lows for a long period of time as he called for urgent action to boost productivity and trade. "A Keynesian stimulus can only buy time," he said.
"I'm not saying central banks should raise rates and say: 'to hell with it', but central bankers should deliver speech after speech to say 'we can do no more'". Separately, Adam Posen, a former Bank of England policymaker, urged Mark Carney, the current governor, to speak out against the “delusional fantasy” that Britain could thrive outside the EU.
Sunday, May 22, 2016

The price of spot gold has risen 16% in the first three months of 2016, the biggest quarterly rise since 1986, according to Bloomberg. The Bloomberg index which tracks the evolution of 14 major gold producers has doubled this year, after a decline of 76% in the 2011-2015 period.
Saturday, May 21, 2016
The US central bank left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%-0.5% for a third time this year when it met in April. After the Fed raised rates from near zero for the first time in almost a decade in December, it was expected to hike rates four times this year. The forecast has since been adjusted to just two hikes in 2016. The US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as June, according to minutes from its April meeting, with Fed members arguing the risks of a slowdown in the global economy have receded. Yet even as the members have become more bullish about US economic resilience, they remained cautious about raising rates. They voted 11-1 to keep interest rates unchanged for a third time this year at the April meeting. The minutes released on Wednesday listed concerns about the slowing growth of US economy in the first quarter, Britain’s potential exit from the EU and lingering uncertainty over China’s economy. “Since the March FOMC [Federal Open Markets Committee] meeting, foreign financial market conditions eased, on net, and overall risk sentiment appeared to have improved,” the Fed noted in its minutes. Yet concerns about potential risks of a slowing US economy and global markets remain. “Many others indicated that they continued to see downside risks to the outlook either because of concerns that the recent slowdown in domestic spending might persist or because of remaining concerns about the global economic and financial outlook,” according to the minutes. “Some participants noted that global financial markets could be sensitive to the upcoming British referendum on membership in the European Union or to unanticipated developments associated with China’s management of its exchange rate.”
Friday, May 20, 2016

Despite the effective tax cut offered by low oil prices to importers of the commodity, the turmoil that engulfed financial markets at the beginning of the year will be enough to prompt a slowdown among advanced G20 markets this year, Moody’s believes.
The rating agency expects the GDP of advanced major economies to rise by 1.7pc this year, compared with a 1.9pc increase in 2015. Elena Duggar, a Moody’s associate managing director, said advanced economies had failed to return to the growth rates enjoyed before the recession, as they have done historically following economic busts. Ms Duggar said that the factors pulling down on global growth “may prove to be enduring, and global real GDP growth will remain low for some years”. She added that while “financial market volatility from earlier in the year has abated, it showed that the risks of weaker growth scenarios have become more tangible”. “The global recovery has weakened further and prospects across countries remain uneven and generally weaker than over the past two decades. In addition, global trade remains subdued, while spillovers from emerging markets shocks to financial markets globally have increased substantially.” Moody’s anticipates that oil prices, currently just below $50 a barrel, will average $33 across 2016, before rising to an average of $39 in the following year. Alongside the commodity slump, the ratings agency warned that the possibility of higher US interest rates and the risk of a more severe slowdown in China could further darken the outlook.
Thursday, May 19, 2016
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