The core assumption of the anti-Brexit economists is that leaving would erect damaging barriers to trade; the pro-Brexit side must take on and demolish these arguments. The good news is that it’s quite easy to do so. The Leave campaign’s long-term aim is to break away completely from the EU. But there is no doubt that, were we to vote Leave on June 23, the UK would seek to adopt, as an interim solution, a Norwegian-style relationship with the EU which ensures that we remain in the single market, giving us plenty of time to work out new arrangements with the rest of the world. 

That is both the only realistic way we would quit the EU – the only model, that, plausibly, MPs would support as a cross-party compromise deal – and the best possible way for us to do it. The Norwegians would welcome us with open arms, as their own influence would be enhanced, and other EU nations would seek to join us. Such a deal would eliminate most of the costs of leaving, while delivering a hefty dose of benefits as a down payment. As part of the European Free Trade Association, we would remain in the single market, complete with its Four Freedoms, while withdrawing from agricultural and fisheries policies, justice and home affairs and the customs union. The City wouldn’t lose access and virtually all of the anti-Brexit scare stories would be neutralised, which is presumably why that option was mysteriously absent from the Treasury’s ludicrous analysis of the short-term impact of Brexit. We would save money: Norway’s net contribution per person is lower than Britain’s. We would have to follow fewer rules: Norway has adopted 1,369 out of 1,965 EU directives, and just 1,349 out of 7,720 EU regulations. So Norway has been forced to swallow just 28 per cent of the total “acquis communautaire”, against all of it for the UK. 

The head of the US Federal Reserve has said an interest rate rise is likely to be “appropriate in the coming months”, if the economy continues to improve.  Speaking at an event at Harvard University, Janet Yellen said the central bank will monitor incoming data and risks, reiterating that the Fed will tread with caution in raising rates.  “It’s appropriate - and I’ve said this in the past - for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time.”  In Yellen’s biggest hint yet that the central bank could act this summer, she added: “Probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate.”  “If we were to raise interest rates too quickly and we trigger a downturn we have limited scope to respond. We should be cautious about raising rates too steeply.”...The rate hike is contingent on the ongoing improvement in the world’s largest economy, specifically the labor market. Unemployment currently stands at 5pc. “The economy is continuing to improve…. Growth looks to be picking up,” said she added. Joshua Mahony, of IG, said: “Much has been made of today’s speech from Janet Yellen, which caps off a week where seemingly every member has had their say on the possibility of a June rate hike.”

Another vote in the Greek parliament, another self-imposed punishment beating as the parliament in Athens votes through fresh austerity measures. There will be higher VAT and an increase in taxes on all the pleasures of life: coffee, booze, fags, gambling, even pay TV. And just in case Greece might need to tighten its belt by another couple of notches to meet stringent budget targets, there will be additional measures that will kick in if there is any fiscal slippage over the next couple of years. George Harrison started his song Taxman with the words: “Let me tell you how it will be/There’s one for you, nineteen for me.” The Greeks know exactly what he meant. Greece’s predicament is simple. It has debt repayments to make this summer and it doesn’t have the money to pay the bills. The European Union can solve this acute cash flow problem by unlocking the funds pledged to Greece under the terms of last summer’s bailout agreement, but it will only do so if Athens demonstrates that it is serious about sorting out its budget. Austerity today will lead to generosity from EU finance ministers when they meet on Tuesday. That, at least, is the hope of Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s prime minister, who is looking for a package in which he gets debt relief in return for austerity. Here’s where things get interesting. The difference between this Sunday and all the other tension-packed Sundays that have studded the Greek crisis over the past six and a half years is that, this time, the battle is not between Greece and the “troika” of the European commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Instead, there is a face-off between Europe and the IMF. The Europeans badly want the fund to be part of Greece’s bailout and to contribute money to it. But Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, says her support is conditional on two things: a credible deficit reduction plan and a decent slug of debt relief.

Leaving the EU and joining EFTA would make us more, rather than less, influential. We have only a small share of the votes in Brussels and can thus easily be outvoted. But Norway, which has technically no votes, has regularly moulded key rules, including the Consumer Rights Directive. The real reason why we – as a large and powerful economy – would have greater influence in EFTA than in the EU is that Brussels is increasingly not the place where big decisions take place. Rules are increasingly negotiated under the auspices of global bodies: automotive norms are determined by the World Forum for the Harmonisation of Vehicle Regulations; food standards are determined by Codex Alimentarius; naval rules are under the aegis of the International Maritime Organisation; and the crucial new banking regulations are being determined by the Financial Stability Board. These regulations are then passed down, with the odd gold-plating, by the EU. These global bodies proceed by consensus, not qualified majority; we are currently represented by the EU at these meetings. A Brexit would allow us to have a seat at these top tables, and thus to disintermediate Brussels. We would also be able to sign free trade deals with countries such as China: the EU has proved incompetent at this task, partly because it needs the agreement of all 28 members. Norway has been far more successful; we would be even more so.

A review of 67 research studies, published in the journal Oncology and Cancer Case Reports, suggests that the nutrient can be used to slow down the enlargement of the prostate, which causes the embarrassing condition. With age most men suffer an unexplained expansion of the prostate, which is wrapped around the urinary tract. The prostate constricts the tube and may block it altogether, causing a condition called benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH). Professor Hiten Patel, from Bart’s and the Royal London Hospital, led the team which reviewed the research.  “We knew lycopene seems to slow down the development of prostate cancer, but now it seems it can slow down the enlargement of the prostate and development of BPH as well,” he said. “We need to do more research before we can say it should be recommended routinely for everyone, but the outcome of this review is very promising.” The findings appear to corroborate previous studies conducted in China where traditional diets include a much higher intake of fruit and vegetables and lower rates of BPH were found Other research by Bristol University showed that those who ate the most tomatoes had an 18% risk of prostate cancer.  Dr Athene Lane, lead author of the Bristol study, said: “There is definitely something in lycopene to be investigated further so we can understand how the mechanisms works.”  Despite identifying lycopene as a potentially helpful factor in controlling prostate expansion, treatment may be more complicated than simply eating more tomatoes.  This is because lycopene is not easily absorbed into the blood unless processed in some way.  However, researchers believe this problem can be circumvented by administering the nutrient in the form of a supplement pill LactoLycopene.

Three-month interbank offered rates in Riyadh have suddenly begun to spiral upwards, reaching the highest since the Lehman crisis in 2008.  Reports that the Saudi government is to pay contractors with tradable IOUs show how acute the situation is becoming. The debt-crippled bin Laden group is laying off 50,000 construction workers as austerity bites in earnest. Societe Generale’s currency team has advised clients to short the Saudi riyal, betting that the country will be forced to ditch its long-standing dollar peg, a move that could set off a cut-throat battle for global share in the oil markets.  Francisco Blanch, from Bank of America, said a rupture of the peg is this year’s number one “black swan event” and would cause oil prices to collapse to $25 a barrel. Saudi Arabia’s foreign reserves are still falling by $10bn (£6.9bn) a month, despite a switch to bond sales and syndicated loans to help plug the huge budget deficit.  Can Saudi Arabia weather the current storm?   The country’s remaining reserves of $582bn are in theory ample – if they are really liquid – but that is not the immediate issue. The problem for the Saudi central bank (SAMA) is that reserve  depletion automatically tightens  monetary policy.  Bank deposits are contracting. So is the M2 money supply. Domestic bond sales do not help because they crowd out Saudi Arabia’s wafer-thin capital markets and squeeze liquidity. Riyadh now plans a global bond issue.  While crude prices have rallied 80pc to almost $50 a barrel since mid-February, this has not yet been enough to ease Saudi Arabia’s financial crunch.  The rebound in crude is increasingly fragile in any case as tough talk from the US Federal Reserve sends the dollar soaring, and Canada prepares to restore 1.2m barrels a day (b/d) of lost output. “We feel that markets have moved too high, too far, too soon. We still face a large inventory overhang and supply outages are reversible,” said BNP Paribas. Total chief Patrick Pouyanne told the French senate last week that prices could deflate as fast as they rose. “The market won’t come back into balance until the end of the year,” he said. Mr Pouyanne said the collapse in annual oil and gas investment to $400bn – from $700bn in 2014 – would lead to a global shortage of 5m barrels by 2020 and another wild spike in prices, but first the glut has to be cleared.  The oil rally is now at a make-or-break juncture. A growing number of oil traders warn that speculative purchases of “paper barrels” by hedge funds have decoupled from fundamentals. There is usually a seasonal slide in demand over the late summer. 

Moody's said the eurozone debt crisis had made policymakers more reluctant to cede sovereignty, while "significant fiscal union" was "off the table".  "The process of further integration seemingly relies on further shocks almost by design," it said. Brussels' flagship growth plan also faced significant difficulties as countries with room to invest refused to increase public spending, while fear of further bail-outs meant the banking union remained incomplete, it added. Moody's said the Greek crisis also remained a big threat to the eurozone and EU. "The risk of “accidents” remains high in a process that suffers from partial solutions and, increasingly, public scepticism," it said.

"Crises can be great catalysts for change, and this has been the case in the euro area.  "Still, significant vulnerabilities remain - with 'Brexit' and 'Grexit' still key risks. In a period of relative financial calm, the political will to further pool sovereignty evaporates quickly, and it is only against the alternative of a break-up of the existing system that further measures come back into consideration."  "There are no empires in Europe any more and our leaders would do well not to try to recreate one." The economics professor added that the global economy would be in "deep trouble" if interest rates remained at their record lows for a long period of time as he called for urgent action to boost productivity and trade. "A Keynesian stimulus can only buy time," he said.

"I'm not saying central banks should raise rates and say: 'to hell with it', but central bankers should deliver speech after speech to say 'we can do no more'". Separately, Adam Posen, a former Bank of England policymaker, urged Mark Carney, the current governor, to speak out against the “delusional fantasy” that Britain could thrive outside the EU.