Wednesday, July 27, 2016

 The "standard" model of coups organized by officers and failed is the Operation Valkyrie (Unternehmen Walkure), organized during WW2, to overthrow Hitler. The success or the failure of coups planned and executed by soldiers depends on successfully resolving three problems. The first is "concealment". Officers can't meet in secret in parks to plan a coup and they don't live for decades in foreign countries from where they are "dropped" in the country where they have to execute the coup! The solution always assumes the fact that the planning and staging activities of the coup are visible for the one whose removal from power is being sought, the supreme authority within the state, the supreme commander of the army, whether they are president or king. If the concealment of the coup doesn't work, then the military putsch will often fail in its embryo stage. In the case of Operation Valkyrie, the planning and organization was done under the pretense of a plan for exceptional situations, approved by Hitler himself, meant to prevent the loss of power under the pressure of a mass uprising of the population against the regime, due to the growing discontent and increasing sacrifices made in times of war, on the front as well as at home. It provided for the total transfer of the power in the hands of the reserve army, the legal dissolution and the dismantling of the other institutions of authority such as the SS or the Nazi party (NSDAP), the arrest of the leaders and the placing of the troops under the command of the commanders of military regions. The second condition is the quick removal of the head of state from the game, who legally holds authority over the army. Armies cannot function efficiently with divided loyalties. If the removal doesn't happen as soon as the coup starts, the odds of success fall proportionally, the longer the coup takes.
The 1943 version of the first public statement from the Valkyrie plan began with the words: "Fuhrer Adolf Hitler is dead" !!! In the real "movie" of the operation this item didn't work out, due to the failure of the attack of July 20th.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

The eurozone economy grew by 0.6 percent in this year’s first four months, compared to 0.4 percent in last year’s final quarter. Growth is expected to continue this year, although at a lower pace.
Draghi stressed that it was “essential that the bank lending channel continues to function well” in the eurozone.  He said that non-performing loans (NPLs) - bad loans that weigh on banks' results - were a “significant problem for future profitability and for the capacity and the ability the banks have for lending."  The problem is acute in Italy, where banks are faced with up to €360 billion of bad debts. Draghi, a former governor of the Bank of Italy, said the Italian banks issue was “a big problem” that will take time to address.  He said the solution was to create a market to trade NPLs and that governments should pass legislation to foster its development.  He also suggested that public money could be used as a backstop “when in times of exceptional circumstances the NPL market is not well functioning” and to avoid fire sales.  He said the measure would be “useful” but should be agreed with the European Commission.

 He stopped short of saying a public backstop should be put in place to solve the Italian banking crisis. Eurozone politicians outside Italy have so far said this was not necessary.  Pressed to comment on the possibility that Spain and Portugal could be sanctioned by the EU for their excessive deficits, Draghi said the decision was “entirely in the hands of European Commission”.  The EU executive “has the responsibility, the power and the knowledge to take a decision,” he said.

Monday, July 25, 2016

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, will stand trial over a state payout to the French tycoon Bernard Tapie, an appeals court has ruled.  She is charged with negligence over the award to Mr Tapie of €404m ($445m; £339m) in 2008 when she was France's economy minister. Ms Lagarde had appealed against a lower court ruling from December. She is now expected to appear before a special court for government ministers.  The case stems from Mr Tapie's sale of his majority stake in the sports equipment company, Adidas, which was handled by the state-owned bank, Credit Lyonnais. The businessman sued for compensation after claiming he was defrauded by the bank and received too little from the sale in 1993.  Ms Lagarde was responsible for the rare decision to appoint an arbitration panel, rather than allowing the courts to decide on the dispute.  She served as economy minister when President Nicolas Sarkozy was in office. Mr Tapie was a supporter of Mr Sarkozy and there were allegations this may have played a role in her decision. She has always denied any wrongdoing, saying she acted in the interest of the state and with respect for the law.  After learning of the decision by France's highest appeals court, Ms Lagarde's lawyer, Patrick Maisonneuve, said he was convinced that the trial would show she was innocent. Reacting to the latest ruling, the IMF said the executive board continued to express confidence in her ability to carry out her duties and was being briefed on developments. Ms Lagarde, who was given a second five-year term as IMF managing director in January, is the third head of the organisation to face legal proceedings. For his part, Mr Tapie is currently appealing against a French court's decision to dismiss the settlement at the heart of the case.

Sunday, July 24, 2016

President Francois Hollande has been trying throughout his term to reduce unemployment, long around 10 percent.  Left-wing rebels, who have already failed twice by just two votes in their bid to win a censorship motion against the bill, said they would make a last-ditch attempt to muster 60 signatures from MPs to seize France's Constitutional Council for "non respect of parliamentary debate" after the prime minister rushed through the law without a vote for the third time.  Despite the final vote, leftist unions insisted the fight to see the law scrapped - which has seen dozens of sometimes violent mass protests in recent months and blockades of fuel depots - will continue after a "summer pause". "The anger is still there. The government hasn't seen the end of this," said Philippe Martinez, whose CGT union has spearheaded militant opposition to the law. FO, another leftist union, said that the final debate on the law should have been postponed "for democratic reasons" given the "context linked to terror attacks and the debate going on in parliament on prolonging the state of emergency". The small and medium-sized businesses union, CGPME has dismissed the law, saying it "won't help in any way to create jobs". The larger employers' union Medef has called the reform "failed" as it watered down several key points but said it brings progresses in some areas. In a scathing editorial, Le Monde, the daily newspaper of reference, said the government had "pulled off the feat of turning this 'great social reform' into a fiasco" due to a "calamitous method" that has split the Left, the labour and employers' unions.

Saturday, July 23, 2016

MUNICH, July 22 (Reuters) - Gunmen went on a shooting rampage in a shopping mall in the southern German city of Munich on Friday, killing and wounding many people, police said.  Authorities were evacuating people from the Olympia mall but many others were hiding inside. The Bavarian Interior Ministry said three people were dead, NTV television reported. A Munich police spokeswoman said multiple people were killed or wounded.  "We believe we are dealing with a shooting rampage," the spokeswoman said.  More than one gunman was believed to be involved and no one had been arrested, she said.  "We believe there was more than one perpetrator. The first reports came at 6 p.m., the shooting apparently began at a McDonald's in the shopping center. There are still people in the shopping center. We are trying to get the people out and take care of them."  Police special forces had arrived at the scene, NTV said.  It was not immediately clear who carried out the attack, which took place a week after an axe-wielding teenager went on a rampage on a German train. Islamic State claimed responsibility for that attack.

Friday, July 22, 2016

Counter Balance and its partner CEE Bankwatch have launched a new report exploring corruption cases in Romania’s third largest company. The Oltenia Energy Complex (OEC) is a key player in the energy sector in Romania and today operates ten lignite mines and four power plants. Supposed recipient of a EUR 200 million loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD),  OEC stands out for a long list of corruption scandals collected in the last decade. Focusing mainly on the dodgy contracts signed by the company with the Șova and Associates law firm, the report shows a repeated history of state capture practices, involving prominent figures of the Romanian political panorama such as Dan Șova and Victor Ponta, members of the national Parliament, but also local officials.  Although, after fierce protests by civil society, the EU public money did not reach the Romanian company, it is worth remembering the Oltenia Energy Complex case as one to draw some lessons from. Alexandru Mustață, author of the report, claims: “It is crucial that large infrastructure financiers better investigate companies before doing business with them, and monitor them from that moment onwards”. Xavier Sol, director of Counter Balance, underlines: “Such cases of state capture should alert infrastructure financiers like the EBRD to aim for transparency of both the loaner and the loaned as an essential part of the due diligence practice public banks have to conduct”.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Speaking in Brussels on Monday, French foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said: "It would be unbelievable if the death penalty was re-established in Turkey". He said Turkish reformists should ask themselves if they wanted progress to be "abruptly stopped" and that the EU would make "no concessions on values". German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said: “Reintroduction of the death penalty would prevent successful negotiations to join the EU”.  Steffen Seibert, chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman, said in Berlin that Merkel had phoned Erdogan.  “A country that has the death penalty can't be a member of the European Union and the introduction of the death penalty in Turkey would therefore mean the end of accession negotiations”, he said.  Nato does not require its members not to execute people, but the defence alliance reinforced the EU’s appeals on Monday.   Its secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, also phoned the Turkish president. “Being part of a unique community of values, it is essential for Turkey, like all other allies, to ensure full respect for democracy and its institutions, the constitutional order, the rule of law and fundamental freedoms”, Stoltenberg said afterward. In a sign of the mood in Ankara, Egemen Bagis, Erdogan’s former EU affairs minister, said on social media: “Do you think Turks care about what EU states at this point? We are furious”. “EU should support Turkey not Feto”, he added, referring to Fethullah Gulen, an Islamic preacher who lives in the US and who was also accused of plotting Erdogan’s downfall.  Speaking in a statement on Monday, John Bass, the US ambassador to Turkey, said: "Unfortunately, some ... public figures have speculated that the United States in some way supported the coup attempt. This is categorically untrue, and such speculation is harmful to the decades-long friendship between two great nations".  He said that if Turkey submitted an extradition request for Gulen, then it would be "considered" by US courts.