Saturday, August 16, 2014


Word on the Street is Germany will allow PIIGS to deficit spend in order to prop up German economy for a couple of years, before the EZ is finally broken up.
They want to squeeze every last dime out of the suckers' pockets before ditching them...You know I could swear that somebody once said "the worst of the eurocrisis is behind us". Now who was it again ? Oh yes, Draghi, arch Eurolooney at the ECB. Maybe his crystal ball wasn't a CE approved model so he can blame that on his duff statement. The EZ should be referred to more accurately as GZ, the German Zone. Within the GZ there are areas being sacrificed on the alter of German economic superiority. The utter economic chaos in Spain, among the other broken economies of the GZ, has no chance whatsoever of recovering. Germans failed with Tiger tanks, but they have conquered with economic weapons that have secured their growth over the last several years, whilst others languish in decline. Germany is still the European menace, and there is a growing realisation that they have masterminded a piece of economic trickery, and continue to do so. The nations who fell for German economic idealism have themselves to blame, but how this utter financial mess will develop over time has many speaking of rebellion and revolution. Frankly, whatever happens there is only deeper chaos ahead...Spot on in € being a D-Mark and look what happened when locked in trading bands with that, In effect you must have your economic needs exactly the same otherwise you fail. People signed up to €, and in Spain, and maybe Portugal, Greece, they will stick with it as it's their defence against dictatorship. Franco was in charge till when, Greece abolished became a republic when, ditto Portugal. € membership gives them a seat at the 'top table p art of Worlds no.2 currency' for that they keep willing to pay what seems a crazy price...
While the great and good of the EU financial wizards make their plans and predictions regarding the Euro and banks and stability et al, they are ignorant, deliberately or otherwise, of a simple and economically uncomplicated set of facts.
While, Prima Face, the Europe Central Bank has not indulged in quantitative easing, the reality is that the individual banks and industrial companies have done. They have achieved this by the banks extending loans to businesses which in normal times would be unable to raise finance. Those businesses though add a multiplier effect.
Where in the UK, an SME business would normally work with one bank or two where there is a specific reason, in Europe, a company will work with ten, fifteen or twenty banks or more.
The problem in Europe lies in invoice/sales order/purchase order backed finance, especially related to export sales. It is not unusual to find a company raising finance against a customer order, then raising finance to purchase goods/material to fulfill that order with a separate bank and then, when shipped, to discount the invoice with another bank and then discount it again with another or even another still. The outcome is one order/sale boosting the money supply maybe two, three, four or five times the value of the order. And they are all at it because the culture within Clubmed is that it's all OK. The banks must be aware but are turning a blind eye.
Compound this further with a general move of banking facilities from long term to short term, replacing existing borrowings with more expensive new ones and the associated transactional costs paid for by the borrowing businesses; then the whole system is awash with short term debt that is based on collateral many times less than the money borrowed, so it doesn't take a genuis to work out what will happen when the merry-go-round finally, inevitably, grinds to a halt.
All the economists will be wrong footed by this and when the crash comes it will be epic. Nobody has asked the simple question; why has it been so easy for businesses in the Eurozone to access cash when the rest of the west has been at the opposite end of the scale and why have no European banks needed rescuing? The answer is that they are simply kicking the can down the street in a dwam of general stupidity. The nettle hasn't been grasped, the bullet is unbitten and the chickens are coming home to roost.

Friday, August 15, 2014

The fact of the matter is, War is wrong. Killing is wrong

My entire heart is with the people of SE Ukraine and it is difficult for me to watch this video without getting upset. My dilemma is this: - Some experts believe that the US is trying to provoke Russia (and perhaps China) to give them a pretext to start a full blown WW3. This, they say, is the only way for the USA to avoid economic collapse - you go to war and, after you win, (if you win), you re-write the books, cancel the loans, and redraw the borders to get new resources and new markets. Should Putin give them that pretext? What if it is uncertain who would win? Should he risk everything? And then, again, what if the Americans are bluffing? Counting on Russian leadership to buy into it to paralize Russia, to scare it from responding. The guy at the end of the video is right - if Russia lets go of Ukraine, sonner or later NATO will be on its border and Russia will be next. This is where it all has been heading from the beginning. Don't forget that the pathological Russophobe Brzezinski aided Obama's election campaign and is, most likely, still influencing Obama's foreign policy.
European diplomats reached a deal on “tier 3” sanctions aimed at shutting Russian banks out of global capital markets and slowly suffocating the Russian economy, though the original plan to limit technology for oil and gas exploration has been diluted. Creditors have already frozen a $1.5bn loan for VTB bank due to be agreed last week.  The European Commission said the measures are likely to cut 0.3pc of GDP off EU economic growth this year, and 0.4pc next year, even if the crisis is contained without a serious disruption of energy supplies. “This is a significant hit to growth. It implies such low growth in parts of southern Europe that it makes it almost impossible to arrest the rise in debt ratios,” said Mr Tilford.  The Moscow newspaper Izvestia said Russia’s parliament is already drawing up legislation to blacklist “aggressor countries”, specifically targeting auditors and consultants. These include Deloitte, KPMG, EY (formerly known as Ernst & Young), Boston Consulting and McKinsey.  Tim Ash, from Standard Bank, said this would trigger clauses on bond covenants that rely on external audits. “If they go down this path they could provoke a brutal market reaction,” he said.  David Owen, from Jefferies, said a lack of genuine economic recovery is what lies behind Europe’s falling yields, already replicating the pattern seen in Japan in the 1990s. “A third of all countries in the eurozone are already in deflation once you strip away taxes, and another four have no inflation, including France and Spain,” he said.   “Corporate profits fell in the first quarter, and so did household disposable income, if you exclude Germany. We are seeing no growth at all in world trade, which is highly unusual. The CPB trade index rolled over in May and fell 0.6pc,” he said.  Mr Owen said investors are starting to price in quantitative easing by the ECB, which would entail sovereign bond purchases and potentially push yields lower. The Bundesbank would be the biggest buyer on a pro-rata basis under the ECB’s “key”, but German debt is relatively scarce. “Investors know this and it is driving Bund yields even lower,” he said. 
For Russia, deep recession looks inevitable. The commission said sanctions will cut Russia’s growth by 1.5pc in 2014, and by 4.8pc in 2015. A return to the Soviet stagnation of the early 1980s is becoming all too likely.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Kiev’s so-called “anti-terrorist operation” in the eastern regions of Ukraine has intensified lately. The most recent crackdown was in the village of Gorlovka, in the Donetsk Region. It resulted in 31 civilians being killed there. According to UN figures, at least 1,129 people have been killed and nearly 3,500 wounded in eastern Ukraine since the start of the operation in April. Also, 100,000 people have been forcibly displaced.  The UN report said that the cause of the rising death toll is intensified artillery shelling of civilian residential areas and so-called “collateral damage” in heavily-populated areas. The European Union has “quietly” agreed to lift restrictions supplying Kiev with military technology and equipment which can be used for the “repression” in the country, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. "During a recent meeting of the Council of Europe in Brussels, leaders of EU member states agreed 'on the quiet' to remove restrictions on exports to Kiev of equipment that could be used for internal repression," the ministry said in a statement on its website. "Exports of military technologies and equipment were also allowed."  Moscow slammed the move as "contradicting the rules of military technologies and ammunition exports which have been earlier applied by the EU" and also "pierced" by double standards. ‘Situation atrocious’: Russian Red Cross says E. Ukraine faces humanitarian catastrophe. The EU approved its rules for controlling the export of weapons and ammunition on December 8, 2008. Criterion #3 calls on the EU member countries to stop issuing export licenses for military equipment and technologies that can provoke or prolong conflict.

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

In my opinion, Germany is in a race to the bottom...

As I keep saying, soon, soon they will all want to talk, their plans of expansion to put off that day have not worked, Italy has hit the buffers and is a train wreak that cant be rescued, then I said France would be the next train running up Italy's rear end, then I said that would drag Germany into it, then would come the time to talk, I said we would need a strong man with the peoples will at heart, not the royal will or the city's will but the peoples will, Cameron tried to convince us he was that man, now Boris, but are they? I did say it would be an unexpected man or woman, one that is in the background now, one the pundits wont see as a contender, then UKIP emerged as a contender, is he this man? what chance do UKIP have of winning an election, maybe it is not a politician, maybe its a man who is in Europe on our behalf but has a handle on both Europe's will and the peoples will that can draw up that agreement, but if the EU is to be saved then they must find that man in every country as I keep saying, soon. but the snipers, what was that all about? didn't see any of that, so is it worth saving... and, it is getting worst, not flat lining which would mean it could get better on its own but worst, they are fiddling the figures more and more, soon they will have nothing left to fiddle, we all need a trade agreement, as we can see those are breaking down and trade wars are starting to take place all around it, while the politicians talk so the country side burns, to me I see hell all around, I see how it came and how it grew, the cities attempts to make us all junkies while destroying our means of production so we would be dependent on them, so securing their position on top, that is failing dramatically and making the people feel they are under threat from them, this is making the people wish to take them down with them and fill the lamp post with bankers(which I amplify here), Germany is not all right it is surrounded by a raging forest fire that will SOON cross their boarders and consume them. But there again, snipers, lol, we all get what we deserve.