Friday, September 12, 2014

Spain AND THE REST OF THE CHRISTIAN COUNTRIES are about as close to recovery as a the most drowned of drowned rats. Germany's relatively low growth number will probably beg the question of it sustaining its internal budget commitments & its real problem is the low demand from its ring fenced client base know as the EU/EZ at least for the foreseeable future. France & Italy second & third economies by size of the EZ & stuck within the currency have lost one solution to their problems the use of an independent currency.....so the slide continues. To make matters even worse Chinese demand slow...The UK is the first economy to resemeble the economies of 2007 ... do you remember spiralling house prices... high consumer debt? ...Sound familiar...Have a go at Spain and the Eurozone economies if you like but the reality is it's still the UK's bigggest market even if readers of this paper don't want to hear it, .....look it up ...UK manufacturing down in August because the Eurozone itself is down. The idea that the UK will be sole European supplier to India and China is just a fantasy anyway, and all that stuff about the Commonwealth ha ha ha..... . The best thing you can do is hope the Eurozone does better and that the rats don't drown....The idea that Spain is the latest poster child of Euro austerity working its magic, is risible. Has it moved the 1million unsold properties onto the side of the balance sheet marked 'items it is best to forget about'? Are the thousands last count 30,000 this year alone (though how any one knows the number puzzles me) of Spanish youths coming to the UK to find paying work, an indication that things are going well in Spain, thanks to the Euro? I am also intrigued to know what Germany will do with the Target 2 liability it has built up thanks to the Euro inter country trades. The last time I looked it was standing at €800 billion, but hey what is a few billion between friends? Just ask the Greeks for their unbiased opinion. They have experience of welcoming deep pocket friends round. The last time Angela M dropped by, they placed 7000 armed troops on the streets of Athens to ensure she arrived safely.The Euro, the religion, sorry I mean currency of peace, not very convincing is it? If you have to say it, the chances are the facts deny what you are saying. Best not to look too closely at Ukraine these days. More Baroness Ashton anyone....iN CONCLISION :
The country is dead on its feet.... It may have made a slight recovery from the depths of the recession....
But the banks are still wallowing in a cesspit of bad debt from the housing boom... They are still holding loads of property on the books. The only thing keeping the country afloat is that the banks stuffed their bailouts into the government....
Its not pretty over there High unemployment and bad banks.. The recovery over there is similar to the UK one... It ignores a lot of the rubbish and focuses on the good things... In the UK its property.. In Spain its better exports.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Brussels has called into question whether the French government’s economic plan can bring the country’s deficit back into line with tough EU budget rules, suggesting Paris must make further cuts in welfare and healthcare spending to achieve compliance.
The recommendations form part of the European Commission’s annual review of EU national budget plans ... (The report) notes that “sizeable short-term savings cannot be achieved” unless France significantly cuts increases in social security spending. It also says healthcare and pension costs must be cut further, noting reforms adopted in December still left France’s pension programme in deficit. So the EU controls and approves the budgets of member states, even the most mighty ones. And France at least has representation in Brussels. And at least Brussels checks the budgets of all members. And the euro zone has many members so it is much less asymmetrical (in distribution of power and risk) than the pound currency union would be. On the other hand, iScotland will have NO representation in Westminster, and will have a currency union with one, ten times larger, very dominant neighbour.
What would the Scottish yes supporters say if in the future Westminster demanded that due to the pound currency union, iScotland has to make additional cuts to welfare, health care, pensions? I suspect they would say all those things which they are saying about Westminster now. And of course, it is ridiculous to even imagine that Westminster would reciprocally send the rUK's budget for approval to Holyrood. So, you see, such a currency union would be a one-way street, with Westminster ruling over iScotland. Yet, this is what the SNP want, and they claim that this is 'independence'.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

With the escalating Ukrainian crisis towards the top of the agenda at this week’s NATO summit in Wales, a group of former American intelligence workers is urging the alliance to be careful before crafting a response. Sixty foreign leaders and dozens of diplomats and defense officials from around the globe will convene at the event this week and are expected to approve a plan that calls for assembling a 4,000-strong “spearhead” force to counter “Russia's aggressive behavior,” NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said on Monday, in the wake of the release of satellite images purported to show the advancement of at least 1,000 Russian troops and artillery into eastern Ukraine.  But on the eve of the first major NATO meeting since 2012, a coalition composed of seven former United States intelligence officers is asking the alliance to recall the 2003 invasion of Iraq before authorizing any military action.   According to the group, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, the evidence produced by NATO from the Ukrainian-Russian border is on par with the “same dubious, politically ‘fixed’ kind used 12 years ago to ‘justify’ the US-led attack on Iraq.”   “We saw no credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq then; we see no credible evidence of a Russian invasion now,” reads an excerpt from the memo signed by the VIPS steering group — a coalition composed of former National Security Agency analyst William Binney, retired CIA analyst Ray McGovern, retired US Army Colonel Ann Wright and others — published online over the weekend and addressed to German Chancellor Angela Merkel.   “Photos can be worth a thousand words; they can also deceive. We have considerable experience collecting, analyzing and reporting on all kinds of satellite and other imagery, as well as other kinds of intelligence. Suffice it to say that the images released by NATO on August 28 provide a very flimsy basis on which to charge Russia with invading Ukraine,” the group added.   Samantha Power, the US ambassador to the United Nations, begged to differ, however. Upon release of the satellite images last week, the UN group held an emergency meeting on Thursday, the likes of which Power said marked the twenty-fourth time the Security Council hosted a meeting “to try to rein in Russia’s aggressive acts in Ukraine.”    “Every single one of those sessions has sent a straight-forward, unified message: Russia, stop this conflict. Russia is not listening,” Power added. “We said it when Russia flagrantly violated international law in occupying Crimea. We said it after the shocking downing of Malaysian Airlines flight 17, which took the lives of innocent men, women, children and infants from 11 countries. And we say it today, as Russia’s soldiers, tanks, air defense and artillery support and fight alongside separatists as they open a new front in a crisis manufactured in and fueled by Russia.”   Power’s sentiments were countered by Russia’s UN representative, Vitaly Churkin, who said, “Russian volunteers in eastern parts of Ukraine” are involved in the conflict, but not the Kremlin.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

The White House expressed support for Poroshenko's "efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution to the conflict", and pinned the blame for the conflict on Putin, condemning Russia's "flagrant violation of Ukraine's sovereignty".
Nato has ruled out intervening in Ukraine with troops or equipment and pressure from the West has come mainly through sanctions.
Poroshenko caught Nato officials off-guard with the disclosure. He did not name the country involved but only a relatively small number of countries, such as the US, Poland or even Britain, have both the necessary equipment and the sympathy for the Ukrainian cause.
Such weapons are desperately needed by Ukraine because it is confronting an estimated 100 tanks and it does not have the kind of anti-tank weapons that can be fired at distance.
The number of Russian troops were said by Ukraine to be in the thousands rather than just 1,000, suggesting an escalation rather than de-escalation. Such an assessment by Poroshenko casts serious doubts over the prospect of a deal in Minsk.
Nato, at the end of the two-day summit, is to issue a strongly-worded document condemning Russian actions in the Ukraine, declaring Moscow to be in breach of international agreements. There have been disagreements over the wording with the US, Britain and Poland seeking tough language and Germany seeking to water it down.
European Union ambassadors meeting in Brussels agreed that restrictions imposed on Russian state-owned banks will be extended to state-owned defence and energy firms. The US and Britain pushed for the sanctions to go ahead in spite of the ceasefire but other countries were more hesitant.

Monday, September 8, 2014

Britain has a chance to flourish if it leaves the European Union and would be better off outside the 28-nation bloc if policymakers fail to renegotiate the country’s position within it, according to the head of the British Chambers of Commerce. John Longworth said it would be “crazy” to think that Britain would be shut out if it left the EU, though an exit would be “disruptive” and less preferable than staying in the bloc and bringing some powers back to Westminster. The BCC’s director general said the worst possible outcome would be for Britain to remain in an unreformed Europe. “It would be crazy to think if the UK exited the European Union it could not negotiate new trade deals with EU members,” he said. “EU countries sell more to the UK than we sell to them. Last year the UK was Germany’s biggest export market, larger than the US, larger than China. The thing is, whatever happens to the UK, it’s highly unlikely that these countries would erect trade barriers because it would damage them more than us.”  Mr Longworth’s comments were supported by the BCC’s latest business barometer, which showed rising numbers of UK businesses are in favour of renegotiating Britain’s relationship with the EU. The survey showed 60pc of respondents believed that renegotiation would be positive for their economic prospects, up from 54pc three months ago. “It is our preference to stay in the free trade area and renegotiate our relationship because that would give us the best of all worlds,” said Mr Longworth. I don't believe there will be any meaningful reform and that the Brexit has been priced in by the rest of the EU. The UK is looking at an exit and being outside is not going to be an easy ride. It's nice to believe in a half way house, but can't see it happening. The EU has always been about ever closer union so the UK not even agreeing to the EU's founding principles would be facing the exit. 

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Germany's newest party, the Eurosceptic "Alternative for Germany" (AfD), has won its first seats in the state parliament of Saxony, according to preliminary results.
Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats won the vote with 39.5% according to exit polls. The AfD, which says it is anti-euro (the currency), rather than anti-Europe, won around 9.6% of the vote. Eurosceptic parties made large gains in the European elections in May. The projected results from Saxony, a state in eastern Germany, indicate a much more successful showing at the ballot box than had been predicted. The BBC's Damien McGuinness in Berlin says this is the first time that an anti-euro party has won seats in a German state parliament - which is big news in a country where support for the European Union is traditionally strong.
The AfD appeals to some conservative voters who think that Angela Merkel has moved too far to the centre, he adds.
The new party, which is one year old, entered the European parliament in May's elections, calling for the breakup of the euro and campaigning against bailouts for southern European countries.
However the party is seen by some as being controversial, accused of catering to nationalist sentiment and attracting right-wing extremists, our correspondent adds.
Angela Merkel, whose party sits on the centre-right, has ruled out any future coalition with AfD.

Saturday, September 6, 2014

Ukraine could need a further $19bn in emergency international funding by the end of next year if there is no resolution to the escalating conflict in the east of the country, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.
Peace talks are scheduled to resume this week in Minsk as the humanitarian disaster deepens and the outlook for Ukraine's economy darkens. Factories are shutting down, the country's industrial heartlands are under attack and the currency has been in freefall, contributing to a sharp increase in prices.
The IMF last week approved a $1.4bn (£840m) loan to Ukraine, the second tranche of its $17bn bailout programme agreed in April to stave off default.
Ukraine urgently needs IMF loans to support its budget and prop up its faltering currency as its debts come up for repayment. Almost $4bn must be repaid before the end of the year, with $9bn due in 2015. In exchange for IMF aid, Ukraine's government has agreed on sweeping economic reforms, including curbing public-sector wage increases, increasing energy prices to bring them more in line with market values, overhauling banking and currency regulations and tackling chronic graft that has made the country one of the most corrupt in the world.
The IMF praised Ukraine's progress, but said risks to the programme had increased. Since mid-July, the conflict has escalated, while Naftogaz, Ukraine's national gas company, and Gazprom, Russia's state energy group, have been locked in a standoff over the price of gas, which until recently the Russians supplied at a hefty discount. The dispute is likely to further increase Ukraine's debts.