Tuesday, September 30, 2014

President Barack Obama has declined to supply Ukraine with “lethal aide” despite the passionate plea for more military equipment that Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko made to Congress earlier on Thursday. During a White House meeting between the two leaders that occurred after Poroshenko’s address to Congress, President Obama said the United States would keep working to mobilize the international community in order for the conflict in Ukraine to be solved diplomatically, Reuters reports. Following the meeting, Poroshenko said he was pleased with Washington’s help, and expressed hope that the shaky ceasefire in Ukraine would eventually lead to stability and peace. Earlier in the day, however, Poroshenko suggested that NATO give “special” security status to Ukraine. Addressing the US Congress, he called on Washington to provide Kiev with “more military equipment, lethal and non-lethal” to “keep peace” in the eastern part of his country. While President Obama has continued to say that only non-lethal assistance will be supplied to Kiev – bullet-proof vests, helmets and the like – Poroshenko said this would not be enough. Aside from asking for military assistance, Poroshenko called on the US to continue its economic pressure on Russia. "And I also ask that the US be forceful and stand by its principle with respect to further sanctions against the aggressor. Economic sanctions are important for many reasons. They help to distinguish between good and evil. They help us to defend and stand the moral high ground and not to sink into indifference, disgust and pragmatism," the Ukrainian president said.
Meanwhile, the United States has pledged $53 million in fresh aid to Ukraine. The new assistance would include $46 million to bolster Ukraine's security in its conflict in eastern Ukraine and $7 million in humanitarian aid.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Moscow will curtail Ukraine's access to vital Russian markets if Kiev implements any part of a trade agreement with the European Union, President Vladimir Putin warned in a letter, toughening his stance on a deal at the center of East-West tensions. In a letter to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, seen by Reuters on Tuesday, Putin warned that even changing national legislation to prepare for the EU-Ukraine trade deal, known as the association agreement, would trigger an immediate response from Moscow. "We still believe that only systemic adjustments of the Association Agreement, which take into account the full range of risks to Russian-Ukranian economic ties and to the whole Russian economy, will allow to retain existing trade and economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and Ukraine," Putin wrote in the letter, which is dated Sept. 17.  Putin did not go into detail about possible retaliation, but Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said last week he had signed an order to curb Ukrainian exporters' access to Russia. Those measures are yet to take effect.  In a last-minute concession to Moscow, the EU delayed implementing the trade accord until Dec. 31 2015. Brussels hopes that will give it time to assuage Russian concerns about the pact, which is now a legal treaty that cannot easily be changed.
But Putin's letter suggests that the Kremlin considers the 15-month delay to the EU-Ukraine agreement a complete freezing of the process until Russian demands for changes to the legal texts are met.
"Adoption of such amendments to Ukrainian legislation, including implementing acts, will be considered as infringement of the arrangement to postpone implementation of the Association Agreement, entailing immediate and adequate retaliatory measures from the Russian side," Putin wrote.  Putin wants three-way negotiations to amend the EU's accord with Kiev, which Russia says will hurt its own economy. According to EU officials, Russia wants to remove more than 2,000 products eligible for duty-free access to the European Union, tearing up about a quarter of the agreement.
Russian companies are also concerned they will not be able to import into Ukraine after Ukraine adopts higher EU standards as part of its implementation of the pact. Ukrainian companies will receive European technical help and funds to help adapt to EU regulations. But without some kind of agreement with the EU, Russia would have to put up its own funds to help its companies such as carmakers modernize and comply with EU standards. EU officials say there is room for compromise.  Russian exporters could have a soft route to compliance with EU quality and other standards in Ukraine so that they only need meet the requirements for selling goods into the EU-Ukraine free-trade area over a very long time. (Reuters)

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Well to be honest, Cameron, Hollande and Merkel saw, in the violence in Ukraine, an opportunity to give Mr. Putin a good kicking - and took it (in their own, limp-wristed, spineless kind of a way). They took the opportunity knowing that it would have repercussions on their own countries' economies but, hey, it wouldn't affect them personally so why not? ... Now we have a kind of a deal going on in Ukraine, one that seems to favour the pro-Russian faction, and so European manufacturers once again have had to suffer so that their political parasites' egos could be burnished....The EU/UK lackeys of the US Empire, are like naughty children playing with matches, whilst the evil governess looks on, unconcerned. It's becoming clear that the EU has been persuaded to drink the kool-aid and nirvana awaits them on the other side. It's Kafkaesque. The premiss seems to be that a bankrupt entity sanctions a rich creditor nation (although nation is too smaller word for a country encompassing 12 times zones and 40-45% of known world resources) into submission by refusing to offer them more debt. Europe will be weakened for a generation and become, increasingly, an unimportant peninsula on the Eurasian continent.  Meanwhile, Russia-China cement, extend and strengthen their already (natural) geo-political, trade and resource provider/manufacturer complementarity. The US Empire is gambling that its mighty military machine can subdue and subjugate the BRICS (through primarily Russia/China) to stop them becoming the new geo-political and trading hub, before the rest of the world catches on to the US$ reserve currency ponzi scheme. Game for for the Empire if that happens.... In conclusion : The sanctions were completely unnecessary. The EU should not always obey the US as they do. Cameron and Hollande have even less balls than Merkel, and she does not have any. Sorry if this sounds somewhat crude. But the EU leaders are pathetic wimps and cowards.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a report pointing out that Italy is in need of radical economic reforms in its labor market based on major economic indicators, Press TV reports.
The world body has urged Rome to implement revisions in its labor market law in a bid to generate new employment opportunities.
The development comes as the nation’s unemployment rate stands at 12.6 percent, the highest level since the World War II, and is projected to remain above 10 percent at least until the year 2017.
Although official statistics indicate that the unemployment rate in Italy stands at over 12 percent, labor market experts insist that the situation is much more alarming.
Italy's inactivity rate among those aged between 15 and 64 years has recently been recorded at nearly 40 percent. "Inactivity, defined as an unemployed not looking for work, is a structural problem in the Italian society. Relying on official unemployment rate...is [just] misleading,” said Mariano Bella with Confcommercio, adding, “The issue is that our economy continues to contract and unfortunately latest forecast shows that it won’t grow enough next year.”
This is while the country's largest industrial employers' association, Confindustria, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) both forecast the Italian economy will shrink by 0.4 percent this year.
Even though the IMF predicts the economy in Italy will grow by 1.1 percent in 2015, the OECD’s forecast shows that the Italian economy will barely recover within the next year, growing only by 0.1 percent.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Key gauges of Germany manufacturing slumped in September, falling to a 15-month low as ongoing tensions over Ukraine weighed on the sector.  Markit’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the sector dropped to 50.3, from 51.4 a month earlier. The reading is barely above 50, implying that the sector is expanding, but slowly. 
No analyst polled by Reuters expected a number this bad.
The most pessimistic expert forecast that the PMI figure would fall to 51, while the average analyst believed Germany’s PMI would drop to 51.2.  Germany’s factories are particularly exposed to any conflict between Russia and its neighbours, as well as the tit-for-tat sanctions exchanged between Russia and the EU.   Yes, it is difficult to imagine more stupid and counter-productive foreign policies than those pursued by the brain-dead European ruling class. Europe and Russia are natural allies, both geographically and in terms of commercial and energy interests. We must vote a new generation of leaders into office all across Europe, one which is not stuck in cold war thinking and glued to American energy policies and global militarism....The terrible thing about the huge losses being incurred by EU countries in the tit-for-tat sanctions by Russia is the feeling that the EU simply didn't think Russia would respond! Instead Poland, Greece and others have lost a large market for their agricultural products. France seems determined to destroy any future military (and no doubt civilian) technology sales to Russia. In the meantime Russia is seeking and finding alternative sources. So the Russian market is waving goodbye to the EU. (Interestingly, that good NATO member Turkey is one of the new sources.)...Meanwhile, just to ramp things up even more, the US is to sell cruise missiles to Poland which are capable of hitting targets in Russia.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

There is a general asset price bubble in process. If you look at stats like GDP, production, exports, interest rates, bond prices and house prices the developed world's recovery is not based on innovation and production but debt.
Cash is flowing around the economy being printed or virtually created in vast amounts and then passed on at close to zero interest rates. This money is very expensive to get hold of if you are a regular person at credit card APR levels or very, very expensive if you go for payday loans. However money is cheap if you are a bank, billionaire or VC. Hence IPOs have become the casino of the rich.
If you have money at near zero interest rates then you are, in effect, just using other people's money. Mostly taxpayers since they are funding the sovereign debt. So normal calculations of investment and return dont apply. So what if your investment goes up and down because you borrowed the money from a bankrupt bank that got the money from a central bank that printed it.
It's not a bubble in the traditional sense because even if the price collapses the only people who lose are are the taxpayers in different countries funding the debt....
Who allocates long-term state funding for new ventures and enterprises? Name any that have been successful. Bureaucrats are no good at picking winners.  Europe does not have many real venture capitalists, as in Silicon Valley. Most of those who call themselves venture capitalists are really into funding later stage ventures for growth rather than technology start-ups at inception.
Most of the European success stories actually got themselves funded despite these handicaps, because of the sheer market appeal of their offerings. Irrational exuberance is a wider market phenomemon, not just restricted to tech bubbles. It also happens in property, as a glaring example. The reason is always market manipulators - pimp and dump tactics by market gatekeepers, for example investment broker firms who deal in tech stocks and banks who lend for property bubbles.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Spending money wont save the EU. If you want to save the EU then try creating wealth rather than destroying it through taxes, regulations and stupidities like green energy scams. Do you morons seriously think that you can power an advanced economy with windmills! By creating wealth and encouraging business and investment you can create employment rather than unemployment. The EU has been destroying wealth and discouraging business and investment for decades (Exhibit A - France, Exhibit B - all the others), and still the idiots learn nothing, they refuse to change.
How did this guy ever win the title 'Super Mario' when he doesn't understand the fundamentals of economics?

"Mr Draghi suggested that countries in Europe should be encouraged to increase spending within the existing rules designed to reduce deficits and rein in debt in order to boost economic reform and create more jobs"
Please correct me if I am mistaken , but this statement seems like double speak or BS nonsense.
On the one hand 'the existing rules' says no spending past 3% (the fiscal compact) and then he says they should be 'encouraged to 'increase spending' !!
WTF, France et al are already way past 3% . So what on earth is he talking about?
Spending can't be increased.
He makes no mention of reducing the welfare budget for example, (unless that means " national structural policies") ,so I can only assume he is just 'talking the talk!'
His LTRO and the newer version of offering cheap loans do not seem to working.