Friday, June 26, 2015

The Greek government has rejected a proposed five-month extension of the country’s bailout accord, Helena Smith reports from Athens. Greek officials have turned down the deal. “The text that was given to the Greek side is worse than the memorandum,” one was quoted as saying by the Athens news agency.  Government sources have lashed out at the “unacceptable” tactics employed by interlocutors representing foreign lenders at the EU, ECB and IMF. There are reports, says Helena, that prime minister Alexis Tsipras is making a speedy return to Athens....Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker have finally held their press conference. Here are the main points:  European council head Tusk said there are three days left to strike a deal with Greece, and we are very close to the day when the game is over. Both struck a conciliatory tone, responding to earlier comments by Tsipras who accused creditors of “blackmail and ultimatums”. European Commission president Juncker denied that the eurozone had issued an ultimatum to Greece.
Juncker also said that progress had been made in the debt talks, adding that there is a real chance of concluding an agreement. 
Last-ditch debt talks between Greece and its international creditors collapsed for the second time in less than 24 hours on Thursday, pushing the country towards the abyss of an unprecedented default in five days' time.  A second meeting of eurozone finance ministers was aborted after Athens failed to give ground on an ultimatum presented by its paymasters. In the three-hour meeting, both sides could not agree on a final version of a deal to report back to European leaders convening for a two-day summit.  The moment that Greece postponed repaying the IMF a couple of weeks ago was the start of the end game. Now the IMF has pulled out of further bail outs and the EZ and ECB can no longer carry their taxpayers to fund the rest unsupported. It wouldn't matter what proposals Greece puts forward now, none of them would be credible enough to seal the deal. Grexit is inevitable. It was inevitable two years and many billions ago. A pity that no-one was prepared to admit it, a lot of grief could have been spared ... so the gloves are finally coming off, threatening intimidation from the EU cannot defeat a political ideology that beholds different economic principles. Greece can be pushed only so far,if pride takes over they just might walk away knowing the creditors will lose everything ensuring both sides will suffer turmoil. This tale has an inevitable outcome, either a win-win for both sides or a lose - lose . the Greek government cannot accept the humiliation of an enforced lose-win, that would be political suicide. Go back to the Cuban Missile crisis, Kennedy gave up American missile bases in Poland in return for the Russian fleet turning back from the naval blockade. That deal averted a nuclear war, ensuring a lose - lose scenario resulted in a win- win. Same applies here, although the result could go either way...

Thursday, June 25, 2015

LUXEMBOURG (AP) — Europe was scrambling Friday to pick up the pieces after another failed meeting over Greece's bailout that reinforced fears that the country was heading for bankruptcy and a possible euro exit.  Several European countries said openly they are getting ready for the possibility of Greece leaving the euro. And though there was no sign of panic in the streets of Greece over that prospect, officials say Greeks are taking money out of banks in growing amounts.  As a result, the European Central Bank has scheduled a teleconference of its governing council to discuss emergency credit for Greek banks — just two days after it increased the amounts it was willing to provide. The ECB has been steadily increasing the credit it allows Greek banks to draw on.  The ECB could turn off that support if it thinks Greece is going bust, but that's not expected ahead of Monday's emergency meeting of the eurozone's 19 leaders. The country needs a deal to get more bailout loans from creditors before June 30, when it has the first of a series of debt repayments it cannot afford.
Without a deal, the ECB would be under intense pressure to stop pumping money into a banking system that might collapse.  Relations between the creditors and the Greek government, which was elected in January on a promise to end the crippling austerity cuts demanded since 2010 in return for the bailout money, have soured significantly in recent days, with each side blaming the other in stronger language for the impasse.  In Athens, there were no visible signs of distress, or larger than usual lines at banks or supermarkets, despite reports of large withdrawals and transfers, which can also be made electronically.  An EU official said 2 billion euros ($2.3 billion) had been taken out of Greek banks in the last three days.  "Money is going out of the Greek banks faster than at any time before," said the official, who spoke only on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the situation.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Syriza ran on an anti-austerity platform, knowing [1] the dates and amounts of repayment of Greek debt, [2] the condition of the Greek economy, and [3] that Greece's creditors had never stated that they would agree with Syriza's anti-austerity platform and [a] change the amount of the loans due, [b] change the dates on which the loans were due, or [c] offer Greece more money even if it did not pay its loans in full and on time. Syriza gambled with the Greek people as its chips and bet that 3a, 3b, or 3c above would occur simply because of the intimidating, bullying, insulting and narcissistic tactics of Varoufakis and Tsipras. In the end, Syriza lost its bet because Greece's creditors refused to be intimidated, and they said: "Fine, Varoufakis and Tsipras, you keep your anti-austerity platform; we'll keep our money. Have a good day." Syriza has what it told Greek voters they would have: anti-austerity. Therefore, about what can Syriza and those who voted for it complain? Syriza has only itself to blame - as do those Greeks who voted for Syriza. They shall have no future loans from creditors, and they shall be responsible for finding the money to run their anti-austerity economy. Where will Syriza find such money to run their anti-austerity economy? Nowhere, because the money does not exist and never existed: Greeks do not and shall not pay taxes, so there is no revenue, and no private or governmental lender will loan Greece money. In the end, and ironically, Greece shall have its anti-austerity, but it shall not have an economy and, therefore, its economy shall be the greatest anti-austerity economy in the world. If any Greek Erinyes are searching for someone to blame for this, they can start with Varoufakis and Tsipras. And what shall happen next? "Let all the poisons, which lurk in the mud, hatch out."

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Greece’s international creditors are aiming to strike a deal to stop Athens defaulting on its debt and possibly tumbling out of the euro by extending its bailout by six months and supplying up to €18bn (£12.9bn) in rescue funds.  The Brussels-based negotiating team are also proposing to pledge debt relief for the austerity-battered country – but officials stressed that a breakthrough hinged on a positive response from the Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras.  Negotiations were continuing on Sunday night, hours ahead of crucial gatherings of eurozone finance minsters and leaders in Brussels, which Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, François Hollande, the French president, and Tsipras are expected to attend. All three leaders spoke over the weekend, with contributions from European commission head Jean-Claude Juncker.  The crisis meeting was convened in an attempt to ease Greece’s debt crisis before a critical €1.6bn payment to the International Monetary Fund falls due next Tuesday. 
Reuters reported on Sunday that €1bn worth of withdrawal orders had been lodged with Greek banks over the weekend – on top of the €4bn that left the country’s banking system last week. The news agency also said that the European Central Bank was set to discuss extending financial help to the banks this morning, amid fears that Greek banks would be unable to open on Tuesday.
A hectic round of telephone diplomacy took place over the weekend between leaders in Athens, Berlin, Paris and Brussels while technocrats on both sides sought to hammer out the small print of the fiscal arithmetic forming the basis for a last-minute agreement days before Greece’s existing bailout expires.  With time running out, the only way an IMF default could now be avoided is for the ECB to raise the ceiling on the short-term debt Athens is allowed to sell, the officials said. This would need to happen by Monday next week. Brussels sources also signaled moves to address Tsipras’s key demand – that the creditors need to offer debt relief to Greece.  Some form of debt restructuring would be promised to Athens in the future, but it would come with strings attached and not as part of the current bailout package, they said.  Yanis Varoufakis, the outspoken Greek finance minister, said on Sunday that Greece’s fate hinged on Merkel, and told her she faced a stark decision. But his spokesman reacted sceptically to suggestions of creditor promises on eventual debt relief, describing the eurozone as “pathological liars”.

Monday, June 22, 2015

EU council chief Donald Tusk has left his meeting with Mr Tsipras and given a short statement to reporters.  Here's what he had to say: "I have called this summit because time is running out, not only for Greece but all of us. We only have one week before the current programme expires. This means the lets-wait-and-see strategy must end.  "It is my responsibility to ensure we respect all taxpayers in all a countries. If they hadn't borne the burden of austerity, they wouldn't be able to help Greece today.  " I am absolutely convinced that the blame game leads nowhere. I want all cards on the table. This doesn't mean negotiating technical details, but to end the political gambling. Since I called this informal meeting, some promising things have happened, including today's talks. And the latest Greek prosposals are the first real proposals in many weeks, although they still need an assessment from the institutions.  "We must avoid the worst case scenario, which means an incontrollable, chaotic Greixdent." ...George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank highlights that the only thing keeping Greece in the euro is the ECB.   The central bank moved to raise its ceiling on emergency funds today by a further €1.3bn as the country is in the throes of a bank run. Saravelos now thinks the ECB will now be called upon every day to hike its liquidity limit to prevent a banking collapse. But, in order for that to happen, European leaders need to provide some positive signs out of tonight's series of meetings.  Some insights:  Written acknowledgment of progress is likely to be required to maintain ongoing ECB financing of Greek banks, with the central bank approving an additional increase in ELA provision to the Greek banking system this morning given accelerating deposit outflows. Given the scale of deposit outflows and ECB discomfort with rising exposure, ELA approval is likely to take place on a daily basis over the course of the week depending on the evolution of talks.  If progress is achieved over the course of the day, the Euro leaders summit is likely to open discussions for post-programme arrangements, though press reports that a parallel discussion around a "plan B" of a breakdown in talks is also possible.  The Euro leaders summit is likely to address some of the parameters for a third programme, inclusive of the potential for debt relief. We would expect a re-affirmation of the November Eurogroup 2012 commitments on the latter to be the most likely outcome.  Nothing is likely to be finalized unless a full staff-level agreement has been reached between Greece and its creditors over the next few days. There will be a second (and likely last) opportunity for Greece to be discussed at the Euro-area leaders level in Thursday/Friday’s EU leaders’ summit.

The key dates for Greece over the next 2 months, via RBC

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