When oil analysts look at the markets to try to get a sense of where oil prices are heading, one of the great unknowns, at least in the U.S. shale industry, is the large volume of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs). As oil prices began collapsing two years ago, shale drillers increasingly decided to defer the completion of their drilled wells, hoping to wait out the downturn and bring production online at a later point when prices rebounded.  But with oil prices suffering from a prolonged downturn, the DUCS began to mount, leaving a huge backlog of potential production that was yet to come online. From the point of view of the nascent and fragile oil price recovery (or more accurately, several cycles of recovery in the past year or so), the DUCs threatened to kill off the price rally, as they would bring a flood of new production online right when prices rose high enough.  However, it appears that the “fracklog” is already getting worked through. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the number of DUCs stopped rising in the first quarter of this year.

GfK’s latest confidence barometer showed households were more pessimistic about their personal finances and the general economic outlook compared with June, with all five measures of its survey falling sharply this month.  Its headline reading fell to -12 in July, from -1 in June. This represents the biggest monthly drop since March 1990 and is steeper than the decline to -9 recorded by an initial estimate in the first week of July.  Joe Staton, head of market dynamics at GfK, said: “We’ve seen a very significant drop in confidence, as is clear from the fall in each of our key measures.” Mr Staton said the index was still at a “relatively elevated level by historic standards”, and the survey suggested Britons were not yet preparing to stash away more cash into their savings accounts in anticipation of a downturn.  “The future trajectory depends on whether we enter a new period of damaging economic uncertainty or restore confidence by embracing a positive stance on negotiating a new deal for the UK,” said Mr Staton.  GfK’s survey of 2,000 people was conducted in the first two weeks of July, with the poll ending just before Theresa May became prime minister on July 13.

 According to Reuters, amid the disputes between the European and Italian authorities, concerning the initiation of a new bail-out program for Italian banks, but without the prior application of the bail-in procedure, Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB, has expressed his support for the governmental aid offered to Italian banks, because "such a program will allow them to sell some of their non-performing loans, which reduce their lending ability". But is such a "release" of Italian banks' lending capability rational and prudent, when the current volume of non-performing loans shows that they are incapable of correctly evaluating risks?  In the recent meeting of finance ministers of the G20 countries, Pier Carlo Padoan, Italy's finance minister said that "we are going in the right direction and there are no risks when it comes to systemic stability", according to an article in Financial Times. Padoan also rejected the possibility of a bail-in, as he said that such a measure would not be necessary. Shortly after Padoan's statements, shares of the Monte dei Paschi bank saw a new massive drop in Milan, according to Bloomberg, over "concerns over the need for a capital increase". Other information on the web indicates that the Italian authorities already know the results of the stress tests, and that has allowed the finance minister to express his faith in the stability of the banking system in the country.  A completely opposed opinion on the financial stability of the Italian financial system comes from the statements several Italian professors gave Financial Times.   Marcello Messori, a professor at the LUISS University of Rome said that "banks have allocated funds in a distorted and not at all selective manner", while Lorenzo Gai, a finance professor at the University of Florence, estimates that the loan portfolio of the Monte dei Paschi bank represents a "a paradigmatic history of value destruction", as "the management of the loan granting process did not work, and that is an euphemism".  This explains the concerns of the Italian authorities rather well, but 50 billion Euros, the amount of the bail-out program "negotiated" with Brussels, will not be enough.

EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker appointed former French commissioner for financial services as chief negotiator in charge of negotiations with the UK. Michel Barnier, a 65-year old former French minister and vice-president in the previous Commission between 2010-14, was in charge of the internal market and services.  He sought the job of EU Commission president in 2014, but the task was later given to Juncker, his rival in the conservative European People's Party.   Barnier said in a tweet that he was “honoured to be entrusted” with the post.  He added: "Rendez-vous for beginning of demanding task on 1 October." His official title will be "chief negotiator in charge of leading the Commission Taskforce for the Preparation and Conduct of the Negotiations with the United Kingdom" under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. The UK has not yet triggered the exit procedure under Article 50, and British prime minister Theresa May suggested it is unlikely the UK will launch the process before the end of the year. Michel Barnier will report directly to Juncker and will have a team of experts at his disposal.  He will be regularly invited to the the meeting of the commissioners to brief the college on the negotiations. Juncker said he wanted "an experienced politician for this difficult job", adding: "Michel is a skilled negotiator with rich experience in major policy areas." Most of the negotiations are nevertheless expected to be done by the council, representing member states.  They will have to navigate through the difficult two-year negotiations and find a balance between the UK's access to the single market in exchange for some level of freedom of movement from and within the bloc.  Barnier's France has been urging for a tough exit deal for Britain, as French president Francois Hollande faces challenge ahead of next year's presidential elections from far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who wants France to hold a referendum on its membership.

UK = A report from the Home Affairs Committee said: "Past experience has shown that previous attempts to tighten immigration rules have led to a spike in immigration prior to the rules coming into force.  "Much will depend on the negotiations between the UK and the EU and the details of any deal to retain or constrain the free in the European Union."  It suggested three “cut off” dates for when EU citizens can apply for permanent UK residence: the June 23 referendum, the date Article 50 is triggered to begin Brexit talks or the day Britain actually leaves the bloc.  Mr Vaz said: "There is a clear lack of certainty in the Government's approach to the position of EU migrants resident in the UK and British citizens living in the EU...One in three lorries arriving in Britain do not have the security measures needed to keep out stowaways, border officials have also found as it emerged almost half of all people smuggling fines are never paid. Around 750,000 vehicles a year come to the UK without the necessary locks on doors and other measures needed to make sure illegal migrants cannot ride across the border undetected, according to the Border Force. Millions of pounds of penalties for people smuggling have also gone unpaid in recent years after thousands of foreign drivers were caught but failed to pay up.

After the events in Nice, some citizens justifiably complained about the failure of the security measures, in an event celebrating the National Day of France. Furthermore, some of them have announced that they were going to ask the courts to decide who and to what extent was guilty for these criminal "lapses" in the procedures and measures for ensuring people's safety in a public event, which was known and prepared months in advance!!! What was the reaction of the "state"? More specifically, of some of those wallowing in the luxury of the privileges offered by the high official institutions, starting with impotent Hollande himself? They got offended!!! How can that be, some lowly citizens daring to accuse Its Majesty, the State, of failing to honor its contractual obligations???!!! And to add insult to injury, the Internal Affairs minister has announced the subjects of the state of Freedom, Equality and Fraternity that from now on, they can expect events like the one in Nice all the time, events which the state won't be able to prevent in the future, just like it wasn't able to deal with them in the past, as a result of universal fatality!!! The same chilling wind has started blowing in Germany, as, in less than two weeks, there have been three events involving lethal violence in public. So what is the State doing? Sleeping on the job? Who cares about all the paperwork, plans, resolutions and stamps put on who knows what papers, when people are getting killed by bullets, axes or machetes, or by devastating explosions? It is clear that somebody, and not just some persons, but institutions of the state, if not the State itself, is seriously, criminally liable to its citizens!!! It seems the time has come for citizens to hold the state to account. To note the failure to meet the contractual obligations and to plan the restructuring of the institutions that we collectively call the State from the ground up.

 The "standard" model of coups organized by officers and failed is the Operation Valkyrie (Unternehmen Walkure), organized during WW2, to overthrow Hitler. The success or the failure of coups planned and executed by soldiers depends on successfully resolving three problems. The first is "concealment". Officers can't meet in secret in parks to plan a coup and they don't live for decades in foreign countries from where they are "dropped" in the country where they have to execute the coup! The solution always assumes the fact that the planning and staging activities of the coup are visible for the one whose removal from power is being sought, the supreme authority within the state, the supreme commander of the army, whether they are president or king. If the concealment of the coup doesn't work, then the military putsch will often fail in its embryo stage. In the case of Operation Valkyrie, the planning and organization was done under the pretense of a plan for exceptional situations, approved by Hitler himself, meant to prevent the loss of power under the pressure of a mass uprising of the population against the regime, due to the growing discontent and increasing sacrifices made in times of war, on the front as well as at home. It provided for the total transfer of the power in the hands of the reserve army, the legal dissolution and the dismantling of the other institutions of authority such as the SS or the Nazi party (NSDAP), the arrest of the leaders and the placing of the troops under the command of the commanders of military regions. The second condition is the quick removal of the head of state from the game, who legally holds authority over the army. Armies cannot function efficiently with divided loyalties. If the removal doesn't happen as soon as the coup starts, the odds of success fall proportionally, the longer the coup takes.

The 1943 version of the first public statement from the Valkyrie plan began with the words: "Fuhrer Adolf Hitler is dead" !!! In the real "movie" of the operation this item didn't work out, due to the failure of the attack of July 20th.