Ireland yesterday became the third eurozone country to have its credit rating downgraded to junk status as Europe slid into a war it may struggle to win with international credit ratings agencies. It followed a week in which the agencies partly forced a shift in the EU response to the Greek sovereign debt crisis. A week after slashing Portugal's status, Moody's cut Ireland's credit rating to junk and warned that the country would be likely to require a second bailout. The Irish government, which wants to return to debt markets in 2013 when its current EU-IMF bailout runs out, said the development was completely at odds with the recent views of other ratings agencies. "We are doing all that we can to put our house in order and the progress that we are making is there for all to see," the department of finance said in a statement. The commissioner in charge of the EU's single market, French politician Michel Barnier, alternately sneered and threatened the three big agencies who dominate 90% of the ratings industry: Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch. His remarks followed a broadside on Monday from fellow commissioner Viviane Reding, who said the ratings agencies' "cartel" should be "smashed up" as they were seeking to determine the fate of Europe and its single currency. "We were surprised that the agencies would downgrade a country without any warning," Barnier said of last week's verdict from Moody's on Portugal, branding its debt junk and predicting the country was the new Greece. "You don't rate a country the same way you rate a company or a product. That's an issue. We're examining that issue." Barnier said he would announce "stiff measures" in November aimed at taming the power of the agencies. They would be forced to justify their decisions by revealing the details of their analyses and criteria. Whether they were properly registered in Europe would also be scrutinised. "I want to have transparency regarding their methods, especially when they are rating countries," he said. S&P concluded last week that Greece would be found to be in a form of default on its sovereign debt if its private creditors were involved in a new EU bailout, as is planned. That verdict helped to trigger the rescue rethink announced over the past 48 hours in Brussels. Christine Lagarde, the new IMF chief, when French finance minister, suggested that the agencies be banned from delivering ratings decisions on the eurozone countries being bailed out: Greece, Portugal and Ireland. "It's just an idea," Barnier addedHe said he would ask the Poles on Monday, who are chairing the EU, to put a ban on the agenda of EU finance ministers. Jacek Rostowski, the British-born Polish finance minister and former Tory party member, will be chairing the meetings of EU finance ministers for the next six months. He looks an unlikely convert to the Barnier ban. (source the guardian.uk)
Access Investments-Building Awareness - European Union-ROMANIA
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Ireland yesterday became the third eurozone country to have its credit rating downgraded to junk status as Europe slid into a war it may struggle to win with international credit ratings agencies. It followed a week in which the agencies partly forced a shift in the EU response to the Greek sovereign debt crisis. A week after slashing Portugal's status, Moody's cut Ireland's credit rating to junk and warned that the country would be likely to require a second bailout. The Irish government, which wants to return to debt markets in 2013 when its current EU-IMF bailout runs out, said the development was completely at odds with the recent views of other ratings agencies. "We are doing all that we can to put our house in order and the progress that we are making is there for all to see," the department of finance said in a statement. The commissioner in charge of the EU's single market, French politician Michel Barnier, alternately sneered and threatened the three big agencies who dominate 90% of the ratings industry: Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch. His remarks followed a broadside on Monday from fellow commissioner Viviane Reding, who said the ratings agencies' "cartel" should be "smashed up" as they were seeking to determine the fate of Europe and its single currency. "We were surprised that the agencies would downgrade a country without any warning," Barnier said of last week's verdict from Moody's on Portugal, branding its debt junk and predicting the country was the new Greece. "You don't rate a country the same way you rate a company or a product. That's an issue. We're examining that issue." Barnier said he would announce "stiff measures" in November aimed at taming the power of the agencies. They would be forced to justify their decisions by revealing the details of their analyses and criteria. Whether they were properly registered in Europe would also be scrutinised. "I want to have transparency regarding their methods, especially when they are rating countries," he said. S&P concluded last week that Greece would be found to be in a form of default on its sovereign debt if its private creditors were involved in a new EU bailout, as is planned. That verdict helped to trigger the rescue rethink announced over the past 48 hours in Brussels. Christine Lagarde, the new IMF chief, when French finance minister, suggested that the agencies be banned from delivering ratings decisions on the eurozone countries being bailed out: Greece, Portugal and Ireland. "It's just an idea," Barnier addedHe said he would ask the Poles on Monday, who are chairing the EU, to put a ban on the agenda of EU finance ministers. Jacek Rostowski, the British-born Polish finance minister and former Tory party member, will be chairing the meetings of EU finance ministers for the next six months. He looks an unlikely convert to the Barnier ban. (source the guardian.uk)
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"Real M1 deposits in Italy have fallen at an annual rate of 7pc over the last six months, faster than during the build-up to the great recession in 2008," said Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors.
Such a dramatic contraction of M1 cash and overnight deposits typically heralds a slump six to 12 months later. Italy's economy is already vulnerable – industrial output fell 0.6pc in May, and the forward looking PMI surveys have dropped below the recession line.
"What is disturbing is that the numbers in the core eurozone have started to deteriorate sharply as well. Central banks normally back-pedal or reverse policy when M1 starts to fall, so it is amazing that the European Central Bank went ahead with a rate rise this month," Mr Henderson said.
Italy is not a high-debt nation. Italian households are frugal by Spanish and UK standards. However, Italy has a toxic trifecta of problems that affect long-term debt dynamics: a public debt stock of €1.8 trillion or 120pc of GDP; rising interest rates; and economic stagnation. It is the interplay of these elements that has set off flight from Italian bonds.
Italy has to roll over or raise €1 trillion over the next five years, with a big spike as soon as August. "Any new issuance will be above the average rate. That is the real cause of the destructive market action," said Paul Schofield from Cititgroup
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