MARSEILLE, France (Reuters) - IMF chief Christine Lagarde said on Saturday that reports of a draft IMF document showing a 200 billion euro (172 billion pound) shortfall in European banks' capital were misleading and the lender was still finalising its study. "There has been misreporting about the 200 billion euros, this number is tentative," Lagarde told a news conference after G7 and G8 finance talks in the southern French city of Marseille. "This is not a stress test that the IMF conducts nor is it the global capital need for European banking institutions, that it is not, and we are currently in discussions with our European partners to assess the global methodology until we reach a tentative draft. It will be published before the end of September." 
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Sunday, September 11, 2011
MARSEILLE, France (Reuters) - IMF chief Christine Lagarde said on Saturday that reports of a draft IMF document showing a 200 billion euro (172 billion pound) shortfall in European banks' capital were misleading and the lender was still finalising its study. "There has been misreporting about the 200 billion euros, this number is tentative," Lagarde told a news conference after G7 and G8 finance talks in the southern French city of Marseille. "This is not a stress test that the IMF conducts nor is it the global capital need for European banking institutions, that it is not, and we are currently in discussions with our European partners to assess the global methodology until we reach a tentative draft. It will be published before the end of September." 
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Ray Boulger at mortgage broker John Charcol: "I would see [the base rate] staying at 0.5% until mid-2013, and then only going up slowly."
Brian Hilliard, chief UK economist at Société Générale: His best guess for the next rate rise is "some time in 2013" – probably the early part of that year.
Martin Ellis, housing economist at the Halifax: "It's now looking increasingly likely we won't see a movement until some time in 2012." He believes predictions that the next rise won't be until 2013 are too pessimistic.
The Guardian's economics editor, Larry Elliott: "Even the most hawkish people in the City are talking about late 2012. I don't think there will be a rise while Mervyn King is governor of the Bank and he ends his term in the summer of 2013."
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight: "Whenever interest rates do start to rise, the probability remains that they will move up relatively gradually and remain very low compared with past norms."
So how does this translate into your finances?
I'm in the market for a new mortgage. Is a tracker the way to go?
There are still some very good tracker home loan deals on offer, particularly if you are looking to remortgage and have built up a decent amount of equity in your property. Borrowers in that position should be aiming to find a tracker deal priced at around 2.5%.
HSBC and ING Direct are both offering lifetime trackers with current pay rates of 2.49% (base rate plus 1.99% for the term of the mortgage) where the maximum loan is 60% of the property's value. The HSBC deal has no booking fee, while ING Direct's has a £945 fee.
The counter-argument is that many fixed-rate mortgage deals have come down in price lately and are looking a lot more attractive. If you can't afford to get the interest-rate guessing game wrong and/or you don't want to live with the fear of rates rising, however unlikely that may seem, fixing your monthly payments may be the way to go. Ultimately, the base rate will rise – it's just a case of when.
David Hollingworth at mortgage broker London & Country highlights Chelsea building society's five-year fixed-rate deal priced at 3.29% until 30 November 2016. For really long-term reassurance, how about a deal that fixes your payments until the end of 2021? The Chelsea also has a 10-year fixed deal priced at an attractive 3.99%. But in both cases the maximum loan is 70% and the product fee is a chunky £1,495.
I'm in a fix. Should I bail out?
Some of those who took out fixed-rate deals three or four years ago will be paying 5% or 6% – or even more in a few cases – and wondering if it makes sense to get out.
The big obstacle for many is the early repayment penalty charged if you ditch your current loan. Often, these are calculated as a percentage of the outstanding loan, and can easily be 3% or more. In many cases the penalty will be several thousand pounds.
Some people will definitely save by switching to a cheaper mortgage, even taking the penalty into account. But for others, the cost of escaping their current deal will be greater than the potential saving. As a rough rule of thumb, if the lock-in is two years or more, there is a good chance that switching will stack up financially, says Hollingworth. If it's less than a year, it is less likely you will gain.
The Guardian can help with the maths – our website features a mortgage switching calculator, provided by London & Country, which will give you an idea of whether it is worth paying the early repayment charge (ERC) to remortgage at a lower rate. Key in your current mortgage balance, interest rate and ERC, and how long the penalty has to run, and it will show you the interest rate you would need to achieve to make a switch worthwhile.
Take the example of someone with a £100,000 mortgage who is paying 5% interest, has a 3% ERC, and has three years to go until the charge ends. They need a rate of around 4% – assuming valuation and legal fees are paid by the new lender – which is perfectly achievable.
But if they only had one year to go until the charge ends, they would need to find a rate of 2% or less for a switch to be worthwhile.
Don't forget to factor in another potentially chunky cost associated with many new deals: the product fee. And remember that if you switch from a fixed rate to a variable one, and interest rates start to go back up, this will, of course, eat into any savings.
El ministro griego de Finanzas, Evangélos Vénizélos, ha anunciado que el Gobierno tomará este mismo año nuevas medidas para sumar a sus cuentas alrededor de 2.000 millones de euros que ayuden a subsanar los desvíos en sus cuentas públicas, como exigen tanto la Unión Europea como el FMI, y poder afrontar sus compromisos internacionales.
Grecia se comprometió a reducir su déficit presupuestario del 14,5% del PIB a menos del 3% para el año 2014, y a tener superávit primario el año próximo. Para que el país mantenga sus compromisos, el ministro considera que el país necesita ganar 2.000 millones de euros y apuesta para ello por aplicar una "tasa especial sobre la propiedad inmobiliaria", según ha anunciado Vénizélos en televisión.
El titular de Finanzas advierte que es necesario un "nuevo esfuerzo nacional" para combatir la mala imagen de Grecia en el extranjero por los rumores insistentes de una eventual bancarrota del país y salida del euro.
Este anuncio llega apenas unas horas después de que el primer ministro griego, Yorgos Papandreu, mostrara su firme voluntad de mantener al país en la zona euro y de llegar "hasta el final" para cumplir con los compromisos suscritos con los prestamistas internacionales tras reconocer, eso sí, que el país estaría "en peligro" si no lo hiciera.
"Grecia cumplirá con su palabra y estamos decididos a aplicar las decisiones del 21 de julio. Nuestra primera prioridad es asegurar el rumbo para salvar al país de la bancarrota", dijo durante su discurso de 'rentrée', dado en la feria internacional celebrada en esa ciudad del norte de Grecia
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