Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Can somebody tell me what's great about this plan, and why the market and euro rallied?

RECAP-Bloomberg: "Merkel's office: “dreams that are taking hold again now that with this package everything will be solved and everything will be over on Monday won’t be able to be fulfilled,” The search for an end to the crisis “surely extends well into next year.”" UK Telegraph: "Diplomats say Mr Geithner’s plan to use the ECB as a guarantor of eurozone sovereign bonds was dismissed out of hand, while the EU failed to offer clear assurances that bank recapitalisation would be carried out with sufficient speed and scale to halt an incipent run on the system." "German foreign minister Westerwelle politely told the US to mind its own business. “I cannot understand some of the comments of our American friends. You can’t solve a debt crisis with more debt,”" "RBS said any attempt to solve the eurozone crisis without the ECB playing a key role in shoring up the system is doomed to failure." "Trichet, ...said late last week that the bank has done “all it could” ... has now exhausted its role of “lender of last resort”." "Ackermann, head of Deutsche Bank, said plans to leverage the EFSF may be illegal. “We cannot allow a rescue fund of this magnitude. The (constitutional) court would’t permit, and nor would the people,” he said." Germany wants private investors to increase haircut to 50%. Financial Times: Investors say no. 21% was agreed, and they're sticking with that. (Search for: "Investor threat to second Greek bail-out") If banks take bigger haircut, they will incur bigger losses and will be downgraded again. If EU forces this, then it's involuntary and triggers CDS payouts on default. If EFSF is leveraged, then it will be downgraded from AAA, which means it can't borrow anymore.EU wants to re capitalize banks. DB said no. Germany and France have higher Debt to GDP ratios than Spain, and Spain is one of the PIIGS. Is this the poor helping the poor? When do their AAA ratings get downgraded? Spain was downgraded last Friday. If Germany or France get downgraded, how will the EFSF be able to sell bonds to raise the 440b euros?There are obstacles to almost every part of the plan. Can somebody tell me what's great about this plan, and why the market and euro rallied?

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Germany lies at the very heart of Europe but the rest of the continent has never really understood it.

Germany is very clearly saying "No" to fiscal union, but the rest of the continent- France and the ECB in particular- and global financial markets simply aren't getting the message.

Anonymous said...

The so called masters of the universe - Would you buy a used derivative of this guy ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lei0wVtlczQ

Time for change - greed = exploitation

Enough is enough
I welcome this statement and sentiment from Schauble.

Why on earth should Germany jump just because the banks and finincial institutions want her to. Let them sweat for a few weeks until the plans are revealed. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Anonymous said...

Europe, like the US and Canada, have been stealing from children for decades, through their ever increasing debts, to fuel their fake economies for ~45 years.

Europe will try to solve a debt crisis with more debt.

With the EFSF, they will bring their over-borrowing up another notch, by borrowing more to give to the incompetent countries that borrowed too much and the incompetent banks.

This means that they will steal even more from their children.

Read:

Europe's "Stealing from Children" goes into Overdrive

http://www.newworldparty.org/2011/10/europes-stealing-from-children-goes.html

IMF might give more good money after bad to Europe, as well. Since the U.S., UK, Canada, Australia and other countries fund the IMF, IMF may join in the "stealing" from your children.

Before we agree to this, somebody needs to present a clear analysis and explanation, showing the long term, quantified advantages and disadvantages and cost / savings to the different parties, of the following scenarios:

1. Stop giving money to Greece. Let them default or restructure.
a. Let Greece stay in the Euro Zone. What is the cost of this to the current generation and to which countries?
b. Let Greece exit the Euro Zone and go back to the Drachma. What is the cost of this to the current generation and to which countries?
c. Let the other European countries save their banks. What is the cost to the current generation and to which countries?
d. Let the banks fail. What is the cost to the current generation and to which countries?

2. Continue giving money to Greece and watch them continue to waste it. What is the cost of this to the future generations and to which countries?

Where is this analysis from the EU, Euro Zone, European Commission, ECB or IMF?

Anonymous said...

09.35 More on those inflation figures - the Office for National Statistics said the increase in inflation was largely down to higher utility bills as gas and electricity companies raise their prices.

Inflation of 5.2pc is the same rate as September 2008, making it the joint-highest level since 1992.

The retail price index rate of inflation, which includes housing costs unlike CPI, increased to 5.6pc last month.

09.30 BREAKING UK inflation figures are out and they're higher than expected - consumer price index (CPI) inflation increased by 0.6pc in September, taking the annual rate of inflation to 5.2pc.