PARIS—President Nicolas Sarkozy was thrust into a fight for his political
survival after lagging behind Socialist candidate François Hollande in the first
round of France's presidential poll. Voters must now choose between Mr. Sarkozy,
the 57-year-old incumbent who says he has the experience and energy to steer
France clear of Europe's sovereign debt crisis, and Mr. Hollande, also 57, an
affable career politician who promises a more regal, conciliatory air in the
Élysée presidential palace. One crucial question is whether Mr. Sarkozy will be
able to lure the 18.0% of voters who chose far right leader Marine Le Pen. Polls
show that a large portion of people who voted for Ms. Le Pen in the first round
may abstain in the second round rather than vote for Mr. Sarkozy. France's
choice has large implications for the rest of Europe. Until now, the country has
conformed to Germany's austerity recipe for tackling the crisis. But Mr.
Hollande, who is favored to win the May 6 runoff, has urged his neighbors to
spend more to achieve economic growth. "My responsibility, and I know that I am
being watched beyond our borders, is to reorient Europe on the path of growth
and job creation," Mr. Hollande told supporters on Sunday....Another European
development over the weekend underlined signs that more Europeans were rebelling
against the frugality that has dominated the continent's response to its
sovereign debt crisis. In the Netherlands, talks over measures to slash the
Dutch government's budget deficit collapsed after seven weeks of negotiations.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said early elections were an "obvious" outcome.
Access Investments-Building Awareness - European Union-ROMANIA
Monday, April 23, 2012
PARIS—President Nicolas Sarkozy was thrust into a fight for his political
survival after lagging behind Socialist candidate François Hollande in the first
round of France's presidential poll. Voters must now choose between Mr. Sarkozy,
the 57-year-old incumbent who says he has the experience and energy to steer
France clear of Europe's sovereign debt crisis, and Mr. Hollande, also 57, an
affable career politician who promises a more regal, conciliatory air in the
Élysée presidential palace. One crucial question is whether Mr. Sarkozy will be
able to lure the 18.0% of voters who chose far right leader Marine Le Pen. Polls
show that a large portion of people who voted for Ms. Le Pen in the first round
may abstain in the second round rather than vote for Mr. Sarkozy. France's
choice has large implications for the rest of Europe. Until now, the country has
conformed to Germany's austerity recipe for tackling the crisis. But Mr.
Hollande, who is favored to win the May 6 runoff, has urged his neighbors to
spend more to achieve economic growth. "My responsibility, and I know that I am
being watched beyond our borders, is to reorient Europe on the path of growth
and job creation," Mr. Hollande told supporters on Sunday....Another European
development over the weekend underlined signs that more Europeans were rebelling
against the frugality that has dominated the continent's response to its
sovereign debt crisis. In the Netherlands, talks over measures to slash the
Dutch government's budget deficit collapsed after seven weeks of negotiations.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said early elections were an "obvious" outcome.
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Hollande Will Sweep the Election, Polls Reaffirm
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Par Le Figaro in English pour le cercle : Le Figaro in English
The first round of the French election is Sunday and the Socialists may be already holding pre-celebrations. Their candidate François Hollande is the clear favorite in the last wave of polls before this weekend’s election.
Four of the last six polls published predict that Hollande will win. A fifth predicts that he will finish neck and neck with rival Nicolas Sarkozy.
Between 6 and 8 million French voters haven't chosen their candidate… even though the first round is only three days away.
Three days before the French elections and 23% of voters are not sure whose name will be on their ballot. This is one of the principal findings of the Opinion Poll for Le Figaro and LCI.
And if this year’s election is anything like the election in 2007, 14% will decide who they are voting for when they are already inside the voting booth!
Sarkozy, who is the most unpopular French president to run for re-election, was not attacked on his initial handling of the crisis but on his record in office, his personal bling-bling style, perceived favouritism for the rich, and policies seen as unjust.
Sarkozy had run a rightwing campaign from the outset, chasing voters on the extreme right by focusing on immigration, saying there were too many foreigners in France and following Le Pen's lead in claiming unlabelled halal meat was a key concern of French voters. He had recently stressed conservative family values and the Christian heritage of France. His strategists will now have to decide whether he lurches even further to the right.
Some observers already claim his strategy had backfired, failed to boost him and only served to increase Le Pen's final result, which was double that of her father in the last presidential election in 2007.
Hollande ran a very cautious campaign, refusing to be drawn into battles or surprise measures.
His stance as being against the world of finance and his proposal of a 75% tax on incomes over €1m (£817,000) was approved by a majority in polls. He was convinced that his more measured, if ploddingly serious, style would win out with an electorate tired of Sarkozy's bling and frenetic policy initiatives.
European markets are continuing to slip lower this morning.
The FTSE 100 is now down by 1.56pc, the CAC has lost 1.67pc and the DAX is 2.46pc off. The FTSE MIB has tumbled 3.06pc.
09.59 We've had gloomy data from France and Germany, now it's the eurozone's turn: private sector activity has shrunk at the fastest rate in five months. Markit's composite PMI fell to 47.4 this month from 49.1 points in March. Markit chief economist Chris Williamson said:
The flash PMI signalled a faster rate of economic contraction in the eurozone during April, extending what appears to be a double-dip recession into a third consecutive quarter. The situation deteriorated across the region. Germany saw growth weaken to near-stagnation, while France saw a worryingly steep downturn, linked in part to increased uncertainty due to the ... presidential elections
Nicolas Sarkozy
• Will balance French finances by 2016.
• Promises to call national referendums on compulsory training for the long-term unemployed and how to deal with illegal immigrants.
• In a bid to shed his reputation for favouring the rich, he promises to tax dividend income, apply a minimum 15% tax on major French corporations and introduce a levy for tax exiles who seek refuge abroad.
• To curb the excesses of the financial industry, Sarkozy promises tougher regulation on banks and the introduction of a financial transaction tax.
• Plans to raise VAT to fund a reduction in social charges for employers and lower the cost of labour.
• Wants to halve the number of foreigners entering the country legally each year and increase deportations of illegal immigrants. Conditions for obtaining French papers and benefits will be tightened – Sarkozy has threatened to suspend France's membership of Europe's visa-free Schengen zone unless he sees progress on EU external border controls.
• Threatens to impose unilateral trade restrictions in public procurement unless the EU introduces "buy European" legislation within a year.
• Backs nuclear power but says renewable energy will make up 23% of power supply by 2020.
• In the wake of shootings by gunman Mohamed Merah, Sarkozy proposes making it an offence to access jihadist websites that glorify killing and to go abroad for jihadist indoctrination.
• Sarkozy opposes gay marriage and euthanasia.
François Hollande
• Will balance French finances by 2017.
• Opposes a financial policy based only on austerity and has promised to renegotiate the European fiscal compact to include provisions on jobs and growth.
• His deficit-reduction measures include reversing tax breaks for the wealthy. Promises to target the rich with a 75% tax rate on those earning more than €1m a year and a 45% tax rate for those earning more than €150,000. He plans to limit executive pay to 20 times the average wage and cut the president's salary.
• Has outlined €20bn of new spending over five years, including creating 150,000 state-aided jobs to tackle youth unemployment, 60,000 posts in education and more police jobs.
• Will restore the right to retire at 60 for those who began work at 18.
• Promises to fight discrimination with sanctions for companies failing to offer equal pay, the creation of a ministry of women's rights and the allocation of half the ministerial posts in his cabinet to women.
• Wants to curb financial excess by: separating retail and investment banking and imposing a financial transaction tax; banning toxic financial products and stock options; curbing bonuses; creating a European ratings agency; and stopping banks operating in offshore tax havens.
• Supports the creation of a public investment bank to support small businesses.
• He wants to reduce the share of nuclear energy in the power supply to 50% from 75% by 2025, and promises to close the ageing Fessenheim nuclear plant but complete work on the advanced Flamanville European pressurized reactor power station.
• Will allow gay marriage and adoption for gay couples.
Several Dutch government ministers refused to speak to the media as they left this morning's emergency cabinet meeting in The Hague. That follows reports that they had agreed that prime minister Rutte should tender the cabinet's resignation to Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands.
Under Dutch electoral rules, it is unlikely that an election could be held before September. Brussels, though, wants to see the details of next year's austerity budget in a week's time.
11.05am: Breaking news from the Netherlands -- Dutch broadcaster RTL reports that prime minister Mark Rutte will offer the cabinet's resignation to the country's monarch, Queen Beatrix.
Rutte's decision comes after this morning's emergency cabinet meeting, which was called after his far-right junior coalition partner walked out of negotiations over the country's austerity budget (see 7.50am for details)
More as we get it....
10.51am: Despite boasting a AAA credit rating, the Netherlands actually posted a larger deficit in 2011 than Portugal or Italy.
Data released this morning by Eurostat (the EU's statistics office) showed that the Dutch deficit was 4.7% of GDP in 2011. That compares with 4.2% for Portugal and 3.9% for Italy, although rather better than
Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte's imminent resignation (see 11.05am) comes just 18 months after he took office.
There may be some Schadenfreude within the eurozone corridors of power, given the tough line that the Netherlands has taken with other struggling European countrie since the debt crisis began.
Reuters has already found one Brussels diplomat who sees rich irony in Rutte's predicament, saying:
First you have a big mouth towards budget offenders and then you yourself can't deliver, and instead have to have new elections only one-and-a-half years after the new government took office.
The collapse of the current administration doesn't necessarily mean that the country will fail to bring its deficit into line by 2013, of course. In theory Rutte, De Jager et al could still manage to persuade the Dutch parliament to support a 2013 budget that brings the deficit down next year. But without the support of Geert Wilders' Partij voor de Vrijheid (Party for Freedom), the task could be much harder.
Social reform and state ownership is deeply unpopular with the capitalists that have gained ruling control over Europe and the destiny of all our lives but having state ownership is not a bad thing.
Putting aside the propaganda of anti socialist ideology the fact remains that having state ownership and private enterprise can work.
The Labour party have abandoned the working class and it is the working class across Europe and the UK who are looking for answers. If UKIP adopt a few socialist values they could be a serious threat to any party over policy.
This Eurozone problem is a problem caused by private business but demands tax payer bail outs. So in sessence it should be fair that asking ordinary folk hard pressed for funds should have some form of ownership but the reality is all the people own is debt and have no say in it.
The banking system of the world is the problem not the solution. What we need is a complete rethink of how banks have such a financial vice like grip on peoples lives.
Putting masses in abject poverty to secure the position of the elitists will only result in public unrest. The greed has to stop and we must address a fair balance of wealth or we risk seeing the likes of fictional "Big Brother" by Orwell become a reality.
Renationalisation of the rail network in the UK would actualy save money as the share holder is taken out of the equation along with the fat cat bonuses. The same can be said of the utilities such as Gas, Water & Electric. We are powerless over price hikes and in reality the price hikes of the last 5 years have proven to be a monopoly according to most independent bodies.
Building up to 3 million council houses is required in the UK to ease the housing shortage but would not solve the problem. It would be more like 5 million new homes over 10 years to get the ratio on to acceptable levels.
It is the private sector who pressure politics regardless of party into anti social measures. Who would have thought just 10 years ago that the NHS would be under threat of profit cherry picking and it is due to the Euro banking and financial zone bullshit that these measures happen.
Balance is possible and if we have a political party that can be honest to stand up to the parasite culture then we may have a chance as people to be treated fair and just. Until then we are nothing but economic slaves.
Social reform and state ownership is deeply unpopular with the capitalists that have gained ruling control over Europe and the destiny of all our lives but having state ownership is not a bad thing.
Putting aside the propaganda of anti socialist ideology the fact remains that having state ownership and private enterprise can work.
The Labour party have abandoned the working class and it is the working class across Europe and the UK who are looking for answers. If UKIP adopt a few socialist values they could be a serious threat to any party over policy.
This Eurozone problem is a problem caused by private business but demands tax payer bail outs. So in sessence it should be fair that asking ordinary folk hard pressed for funds should have some form of ownership but the reality is all the people own is debt and have no say in it.
The banking system of the world is the problem not the solution. What we need is a complete rethink of how banks have such a financial vice like grip on peoples lives.
Putting masses in abject poverty to secure the position of the elitists will only result in public unrest. The greed has to stop and we must address a fair balance of wealth or we risk seeing the likes of fictional "Big Brother" by Orwell become a reality.
Renationalisation of the rail network in the UK would actualy save money as the share holder is taken out of the equation along with the fat cat bonuses. The same can be said of the utilities such as Gas, Water & Electric. We are powerless over price hikes and in reality the price hikes of the last 5 years have proven to be a monopoly according to most independent bodies.
Building up to 3 million council houses is required in the UK to ease the housing shortage but would not solve the problem. It would be more like 5 million new homes over 10 years to get the ratio on to acceptable levels.
It is the private sector who pressure politics regardless of party into anti social measures. Who would have thought just 10 years ago that the NHS would be under threat of profit cherry picking and it is due to the Euro banking and financial zone bullshit that these measures happen.
Balance is possible and if we have a political party that can be honest to stand up to the parasite culture then we may have a chance as people to be treated fair and just. Until then we are nothing but economic slaves.
The world is missing one essential thing. American leadership.
I was a big fan of Obama's ideas during his campaign. But as hard as it is to admit, he doesn't seam to be a very good leader. I guess his skills are more as a legislative maneuverer. That's too little for this decade.
At every crossing point in the post WW2 era, America set the tone and everyone fell in line. Quantitative easing is not my kind of thing, but an organized solution is needed. Everyone is doing something different.
Here are some pitfalls I see on the horizon:
- Turkey: Impressive growth, but way too high inflation. Sometimes higher then growth. At those rates (around 10%) inflation is no joke. Second, the reliance on hot money from foreign investors. If something happens, that money is quickly withdrawn.
- EU : Deflation in the future?! Even if theres no deflation coming, the social damage caused by the high unemployment will take a long time to repair. And think of the even higher youth unemployment, if they don't find jobs in the near future, they will not form households and buy the housing inventory up. That will stretch the sluggish recovery even longer.
- Britain: The quantitative easing hasn't balanced the trade deficit. And are the house-prices back to real value level or still inflated?
- USA: If the GOP gets elected and enacts the Ryan plan to privative Social security and Medicare, it will get tough for future seniors. The current 401k generation has a massive saving gap.
- China: Real estate bubble?! There seems to be a current oversupply in high end real estate and a gap in housing for poorer workers. The one child policy has had a horrible demographic effect. There aren't enough females for that generation. This demographic failure can only lead to social problems and not enough households are formed for the housing oversupply.
- Germany: Incredibly worrying demographics.
It is, generally, never a good idea to impose wide ranging austerity measures on any national economy- let alone when that such nation is already experiencing recession and, in Greece's case, near-depression levels. The best time to introduce a few austerity measures is during a time of economic stability and health growth figures- that way hardly anyone feels the strain on their pockets and a level of fiscal responsibility is kept in order to avoid the build up of debt crises.
What you do not want to do (at all!) is impose a huge range and intensity of austerity measures during an economic downturn- all it does is strains the public's pockets, decreases consumer confidence, decrease construction and manufacturing output data and, thus, leads to even deeper recession and downward spiral of the state of the economy; all in return for a bit of debt scraped off the deficit mountain.
The “Growth” mindset is a far greater threat to the world than austerity, the IMF, the Eurozone, the markets or even bankers. The fundamental truth – which most of us have chosen to ignore until relatively recently – is that you can’t have a long term economic system which only functions as long as economies are growing, on a small planet with finite resources.
In fact, if you look out of the window at the world around you, whether you live in the countryside or in the city, most of what you see is a result of our dependence upon one particular finite resource – oil. Oil is fast running out. Do you think that anyone – politicians or otherwise - would tolerate fracking for shale gas or the destruction of temperate rainforests in Canada in search of filthy tar sands if we weren’t already in a pretty desperate state?
The ‘problem’ is that nobody, no politician, no newspaper, no business and certainly no market trader, is willing to start promoting the alternatives to growth – when we have lived like Croesus, it’s going to be hard (and extremely politically unpopular) to persuade anyone that it was all a temporary illusion and that now, sadly, we have to go back to being ordinary mortals.
So everyone sits and waits nervously for signs of ‘growth’ – desperately hoping that they can kick the problem just a little bit further down the road and that the inevitable doesn’t happen on their watch.
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