Saturday, June 16, 2012

The introduction of eurobonds – joint, aggregate eurozone liabilities – could be part of the solution, if designed properly. There is certainly demand for them in China and other major emerging countries, which are desperate for an alternative to low-yielding US government securities.... But Germany remains opposed on moral-hazard grounds: a joint guarantee of eurozone members' liabilities would strengthen individual national governments' incentive to spend beyond their means. Indeed, this version of eurobonds would fail, both economically and politically. But a different version has begun to gain traction in Germany. The German Council of Economic Experts has proposed a European Redemption Fund (ERF). The plan would convert into de facto 25-year eurobonds the existing sovereign debt of member countries in excess of 60% of GDP, the threshold specified by the Maastricht criteria and the SGP. Steps toward this solution to the short-term debt problem would be paired with implementation of the "fiscal compact," German leader Angela Merkel's proposed solution to the long-term problem.
But this seems upside down. To use eurobonds as the mechanism for eliminating the big sovereign-debt overhang jeopardizes the longer-term objective of eliminating moral hazard: it offers absolution precisely on the 60%-of-GDP margin where countries will have the most trouble resisting temptation. After all, there is little reason to believe that the fiscal compact or proposed "debt brakes" will succeed where the Maastricht criteria and the SGP failed. Rules need a credible enforcement mechanism....It is about German imperialism acquiring a captive market through an undervalued currency, while the poorer countries of Europe have overvalued currencies, the Euro's value being between the two poles of real necessary currency value. Its a mechanism for redistributing wealth from poorer countries to richer ones. Germany wants the benefits of a currency union in this way, but not the responsibility to drag up the poorer nations to its level which it would be obliged to do if it was part of a common state and fiscal union. .... It just shows that capitalism cannot unite Europe because the ruling classes are stuck fast to the nation-state, which is obsolete. Only socialism can do unite Europe.
AMUZING ...ISNT' IT ?...Mrs Merkel warned the policies of the new Socialist president could destroy the eurozone by bringing the sovereign debt crisis to France itself. The bleak assessment came on the eve of an important weekend that will see elections in Greece and France and a key G20 meeting of world leaders in Mexico. "Europe must discuss the growing differences in economic strength between France and Germany," she said. Tensions are running so high that Jean-Marc Ayrault, the French prime minister, was forced to deny that Paris had broken off the Franco-German partnership, following Berlin anger at a Franco-Italian summit in Rome on Thursday. There was a growing sense of crisis in European capitals after David Cameron, the Prime Minister, took part in a tense conference call with Mrs Merkel, Mr Hollande and Mario Monti, the Italian prime minister. ... Well done Merkel for telling this idiot Hollande you might be able to fool your own electorate that everything is rosy but if you expected the Germans to foot the bill for your fantasy growth plan & to bail out your bankrupt banks well you've just had your answer.As one of the German finance ministers said last week "let France & Italy go to the markets on their own with their plans & see how they get on.".Hollande will be the next European leader denying his country require a bailout....I'm sure !

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dutch financial groups, ABN Amro and ING, were the most prominent banks to have their ratings cut yesterday with Moody's warning it could downgrade the banks further if Greece were to exit the euro.
In total, five Dutch banks were downgraded by Moody's. ABN Amro and ING were each cut by two notches on the back of what the agency said were its concerns over the outlook for the Dutch economy and domestic house prices, as well as fears that the lenders were too dependent on wholesale funding markets.

"Today's actions reflect Moody's view that Dutch banks will face difficult operating conditions throughout 2012 and possibly beyond," said the agency.

Anonymous said...

Barring a Greek exit from the euro, Moody's does not to expect to further downgrade four of the banks, but warned that ING could face a further cut to its rating. In particular, it said it was concerned that a large proportion of ING's deposits were non-Dutch.

French banks Banque Fédérative du Crédit Mutuel, BPCE and CIC also had their ratings downgraded by Moody's, along with Belgian lender KBC and Luxembourg-based Banque et Caisse d'Epargne de l'Etat.

Anonymous said...

In anticipation of the cuts, billions of pounds have already been added to the funding costs of lenders as investors price in their new ratings. For the investment banks, any cuts will also force them to put up billions of pounds in extra collateral against their trading books.

The ratings actions put pressure on banks at a time when many are finding it increasingly hard to source external funding and are becoming more reliant on central bank lending schemes.

Anonymous said...

Older people have been warned to be on their guard after it emerged 78 rogue companies that mainly targeted the elderly and "scammed" more than £28m have been shut down in the past three years.

The warning was issued by the Insolvency Service, which said thousands of people, some in their 80s and 90s, had been targetted by companies selling everything from non-existent plots of land and worthless shares to mobility scooters, "heritage" coins, burglar alarms and stairlifts.

Anonymous said...

Companies shut down in recent weeks include:

• Luggie UK Ltd based in Keighley, West Yorkshire, which sold mobility products. It was wound up in May 2012 following an investigation. It began trading in March 2011 under the name Mobility Plus, and used national newspaper advertising to sell scooters to the public. Some customers were unable to use them safely because of their particular disabilities. In just seven months the firm generated sales of more than £750,000.

• Reo Marketing Ltd, a company selling orthopaedic products to older people in their own homes. It was wound up in March 2012 after using misleading or high pressure tactics. Despite the fact many of those targeted suffered from physical and mental health problems, sales visits routinely lasted for three or more hours. The average age of the Chesterfield company's customers was 79. Investigators found it achieved a turnover of £1.3m in less than 10 months "by adopting a confusing pricing structure and offering non-existent discounts".

• Regency Coins (UK) Limited based in Southend, Essex. It was wound up in May 2012. The firm "sold coins at a price far in excess of their true market value, and also of a significantly lower quality than represented". It also sold coins it did not own, sold the same coin to more than one customer, and "abused" people's bank and credit card details by taking more money than was agreed.

Anonymous said...

Greek voters head to the polls on Sunday, and the future of Europe's common currency could hang in the balance. Investors fear that a leftist victory could trigger Greece's exit from the euro zone, magnifying problems in Spain and Italy. Adding to concerns, depositors are rapidly withdrawing their savings from Greek banks.

Anonymous said...

Faced with Greek defiance, officials said the euro zone would not tear up the main targets of the bailout no matter who wins the elections, but it might consider giving a new government in Athens some leeway on how it reaches them.

“The headline targets cannot be changed,” one senior EU official told Reuters. “There could be some tweaks to the path to get there, but not the goals.”

Euro-zone finance ministers are scheduled to hold a teleconference on Sunday evening to discuss the poll outcome.

One euro-zone official said that the main concern, if SYRIZA overwhelmingly won the election, was the risk of large capital outflows from Greece if depositors worry their savings in euros could later be frozen or converted into new drachmas.

“It is not even about a bank run on Monday morning after the elections. People can now log on to Internet banking and make transfers on Sunday evening as well,” an official said, explaining the rationale of the ministerial call.

Spain and Italy, under increasing fire in Europe’s debt crisis, earlier promised new measures to repair their public finances as their soaring borrowing costs raised new alarm.

Anonymous said...

Sunday's Greek election is a choice between staying in the euro and going back to the drachma, the leader of the centre-right New Democracy party has told a final campaign rally in Athens.

The general election, the second in six weeks, is seen as crucial to Greece's future in the eurozone.

New Democracy broadly accepts the EU/IMF bailout of debt-laden Greece but wants changes to the terms.

Main opponents Syriza reject the terms of the bailout but back the euro.

Syriza surged into second place on 6 May, in an election that produced an inconclusive result, with no party or coalition able to form a government.

Unofficial opinion polls suggest a fall in support for anti-bailout parties.

Under Greek election law, official opinion polls are banned in the two weeks before the election.

Continue reading the main story

Start Quote
We will exit the crisis; we will not exit the euro”
End Quote
Antonis Samaras
New Democracy leader

Tough austerity measures were attached to the two international bailouts awarded to Greece, an initial package worth 110bn euros (£89bn; $138bn) in 2010, then a follow-up last year worth 130bn euros

Anonymous said...

Pointing to the huge bank loan package deal between the EU and Spain on Sunday, he argued that a bailout was possible without the kind of drastic cuts demanded of Greece.

"Spain negotiated and succeeded in taking financial support without a fiscal consolidation package, despite the lenders' threats and blackmail," Mr Tsipras said.

Interviewed by Spanish daily El Pais, Jens Weidmann called for the eurozone to impose broad conditions on Spain over its loan package, worth up to 100bn euros.

Continue reading the main story
Sunday's vote
Voting begins 04:00 GMT (07:00 local time)
Voting ends 16:00 GMT with exit polls released immediately afterwards
First official results expected after 18:30 GMT

He warned that Greece, but also the Irish Republic and Portugal, had been given the impression that this was a "rescue with no conditionality outside the financial system" and this was "already eroding the commitment to the terms of the existing programmes".

"But foot-dragging on addressing the structural problems will perpetuate the crisis, and the market reaction reflects this concern," Germany's top banker said

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Anonymous said...

If an exit is averted, Greece still will likely need more bailout aid in coming months to keep its economy limping along, and tensions between Athens and its official lenders are likely to return whoever runs the government.

"Whatever the outcome of these elections, it will be very difficult for Greece to fulfill the requirements of its [bailout] program," Mr. Michels said.

Even if Greece stays in the euro, pressure on Spain and Italy is unlikely to lift. The governments of both countries have relied heavily on foreign investors—and are now vulnerable because foreigners have retreated.

The failure of last weekend's announcement of the preparation of a bailout plan for Spanish banks also exposed serious weaknesses in the region's rescue measures. The bailout funds can't directly provide capital to banks—they can only lend to national governments in order to give them the resources to bailout banks, swelling the debt burden of struggling governments.

The International Monetary Fund said Friday that Spain must redouble its efforts to stop its debt from rising further. Spain's public debt rose to 72.1% of gross domestic product, government figures released Friday showed. That is 30 percentage points higher than in 2008.

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