Saturday, September 8, 2012

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is expected to flesh out his plans for a bond-buying programme he announced in August, although few economists polled by Reuters expect he will reveal its innermost workings. Economists in the Reuters poll were divided, though, over whether the bank will cut its main refinancing rate from 0.75 percent to a new record low of 0.5 percent this week. An October rate cut instead looked equally likely. Heaping further pressure on policymakers and likely adding to expectations for a cut, the PMI for the region's dominant services sector fell to 47.2 from July's 47.9, below a flash 47.5. It has only been above 50 once in the past year. New business has declined for a year, despite firms cutting prices for the ninth straight month, with the sub index coming in at 44.7 - just above 44.5 in July but revised down from a flash 45.0. As the downturn intensifies, firms reduced their workforce again in August, with the composite employment index registering 47.5, above July's reading of 47.2. The index has been below 50 since the turn of the year. "Sharp declines in new orders at manufacturers and service providers, plus further job losses, mean that there is little prospect of a sustained improvement in economic conditions over the near-term".   Well....how many times do I need to explain that this relentless drive for increasing “competiveness” that is supposed to be *the solution * to debt is simply a downward spiral for wages and effective demand. Whether you decrease wages, social wages or increase the productivity of labor (produce more output with same or less wages) to increase competitiveness, the net effect is that you damage the ratio of wages to economic output, you damage effective demand and the health of the economy. And then you have an economy which becomes addicted to injections of unsustainable debt which are absolutely needed to achieve a reasonable level of activity - otherwise unemployment grows at unacceptable levels. This is the problem of the global economy today and the neo liberal "competitive's" still tell us streamline, produce more with less wages, cut wages, cut government spending, give more profits to capital and the problem will be solved. No it won't. You simply slowly kill global demand - the downturn has reached the Finnish economy now.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Economic activity is so low that a bank holiday here or there makes a big difference to the figures. This is a bad sign! Expansion in some sectors in UK is marginal and simply reflects policy-driven weaknesses in other countries. Recession will continue and get worse later this year and next unless policies changes.

Anonymous said...

It doesn't matter any more. The debts are so huge the imagination can't cope with the numbers. They are of the magnitude that can never be repaid. Having taken the road of money printing they have no choice now but to continue, whether in secret or openly.

Inexorably prices will creep upwards, interest rates will remain negative to keep the pretence of low bond yields and the government's only remaining tool is to increase taxes and increase debt.

Capitalism has been replaced with corporate fascism, a blend of government (read taxpayer) sponsored welfare for the big banks and anyone thinking there can be a recovery under these conditions needs their head examined for too much exposure to brainwashing.

It's far too late to introduce a gold standard despite reports that central banks are accumulating it as fast as they can. There will first have to be a complete deconstruction, an implosion of sorts, before we can return to anything resembling normality.

Such reckless borrowing and indifference to the inevitable outcome can only mean they no longer believe it matters. As such everyone should stock up on non perishable food and buy such gold and silver they can afford for after the event when the dust has settled.

Anonymous said...

Anyone come across the expression
"One swallow does not make a summer"
So we have one allegedly good month conpared with the awful month before ; but remember even this good month is still 0.8% down on the same month the year before. (Didn't mention that did he - Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!! It's a secret)
So best advice for now is to keep your powder dry and your pecker hard in the hope that the worm will turn.

And no I don't mean the one who wrote the crap above; young Icarus surrendered long before the war had even started. -
And that puts me in of previous promise declaring
"Peace in our time."
That was pretty hard to swallow too............

He He !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Keep on saying it often enough and people will believe anything.

Did they mention 1 in every 7 shops are shut in England?

Good news about cars though. Shows British workers are capable. The problem all along has been British leadership and management only interested in saving their own necks and general arse covering