Tuesday, January 8, 2013

MADRID—Spain has been quietly tapping the country's richest piggy bank, the Social Security Reserve Fund, as a buyer of last resort for Spanish government bonds, raising questions about the fund's role as guarantor of future pension payouts. Now the scarcely noticed borrowing spree, carried out amid a prolonged economic crisis, is about to end, because there is little left to take. At least 90% of the €65 billion ($85.7 billion) fund has been invested in increasingly risky Spanish debt, according to official figures, and the government has begun withdrawing cash for emergency payments. Although the trend has drawn little public attention or controversy, it has become a matter of concern for the relatively few independent financial analysts who study the fund, which is used to guarantee future payments of pensions. They say the government will soon have one less recourse to finance itself as it faces another year of recession and painful austerity measures to close a big budget deficit. That pressure, some analysts said, could force Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's government to seek a rescue this year from the European Union's bailout fund, a politically risky course he seeks to avoid. In addition, there are worries that Social Security reserves for paying future pensioners are running out much quicker than expected. In November, the government withdrew €4 billion from the reserve fund to pay pensions, the second time in history it had withdrawn cash. The first time was in September, when it took €3 billion to cover unspecified treasury needs. Together, the emergency withdrawals surpassed the legal annual limit, so the government temporarily raised the cap. Demonstrators including a retired couple and their daughter marched at a protest against tax increases and austerity cutbacks in Malaga, southern Spain, in October. Spanish officials defend the heavy investment of the Social Security Reserve Fund in their government's high-risk bonds. They say the practice is sustainable as long as Spain can continue borrowing in financial markets, and they predict the economy will start to recover late in 2013, easing the debt crisis. But some analysts say Spain will have trouble finding buyers for the estimated €207 billion in debt it plans to issue in 2013, up from €186 billion in 2012, to cover central-government operations, debt maturities of 17 regional administrations, and overdue energy bills. "With foreign investors staying away from the Spanish debt market, you're going to need all the support you can get from domestic players," said RubĂ©n Segura-Cayuela, an economist with Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. And domestic appetite for Spanish debt, he added, may not be enough. Spain's commercial banks already have increased their Spanish government-bond portfolio by a factor of six since the start of the crisis in 2008, and now own one-third of government bonds in circulation. The percentage of Spanish government debt held by the Social Security Reserve Fund stood at 55% in 2008, according to official figures; by the end of 2011 it had risen to 90%. Analysts say the percentage has continued to rise, even as international agencies have lowered Spain's credit ratings.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Please guys.
Maoists like Barraso tell the truth as they see it.
Its called statespeak.
He'll be leading a cultural revolution next.

Anonymous said...

Threat to the euro is over, claims EU chief Barroso
The threat against the survival of the euro has been overcome, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said on Monday.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso Photo: REUTERS
7:43AM GMT 08 Jan 2013
22 Comments
"I think we can say that the existential threat against the euro has essentially been overcome," he told a conference in his native Portugal on Monday. "In 2013 the question won't be if the euro will, or will not implode."

His view was rejected by market watchers who said the eurozone debt crisis was far from over.

Neil Mellor, a currency expert at Bank of New York Mellon, said: "2013 will be a tougher year than 2012 for Germany and by extension, the euro area as a whole."

HSBC in its review of 2013 said the troubled region has stepped back from the brink of break-up - "at least for now".

Especially since Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank President, pledged to do whatever it took to save the euro. The bank's plan for unlimited interventions in sovereign debt markets, announced in September, help ease investors' fears.

jiji said...

However, HSBC said: "The short and the medium term challenges are still great. The promise of ECB action has not lessened the need for austerity and structural reform, nor improved the lot of the increasing number of unemployed.".

The bank expects more strikes and demonstrations in countries such as Greece and Spain as joblessness rises and says stability in markets has not made companies "sufficiently confident ... to resume investing".

David Buik, an analyst at City spread-betting firm Cantor Index, said: ‘With the level of austerity that must be implemented, there can be no growth in Mediterranean countries or, for that matter, France for years to come."

The European Commission said last year that that the 17 countries sharing the euro would grow just 0.1pc in 2013.

Another risk for the eurozone is German elections this year, although many commentators predict German Chancellor Angela Merkel will retain power.

Ms Merkel is to meet with Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras later today in Berlin.

Anonymous said...

In its Global Risks 2013 report, the WEF said eurozone instability will weigh on world prospects in coming year and the threat of "systemic financial failure cannot be completely discarded".

The report warned that anti-austerity protests across the eurozone and the election of “rejectionist” governments this year could bring the crisis to a head, "potentially destabilising the global financial system".

As the report came out, European Union data showed the unemployment rate across the troubled eurozone rose to a record 11.8pc in November, with the number of people out of work now nudging 19m.

The survey of more than 1,000 experts and industry leaders fears that persistent global economic fragility is diverting attention of governments from longer-term solutions by limiting resources and investment.

Its more pessimistic outlook "reflects a loss of confidence in leadership from governments", said Lee Howell, the WEF managing director responsible for the report.

Anonymous said...

Neither Marx nor Friedman's ideas have been fully practiced. But they haven't been fully practiced in different ways.

Marxism (as opposed to what Marx said about the nature and future of capitalism) was pursued as an ideological project of political and institutional change. The fact that the Soviet 'experiment' failed does nothing to detract from Marx's account of capitalism and its internal contradictions.

Friedman's ideas reflect - and have re-enforced - another, no less ideological, political project. Its just that this ideology is more conducive to capitalism's functioning. There has never been a purely free market, of course, but the ideological pursuit of such is very useful to capital interests.

It may be trite to say (though its no less true for that): we ought not to pursue either. Tearing up hard fought social and political institutions for the control of capital interests and political power is a terrible mistake. Hoping for a revolution is a mistake also.

The only hope is to muddle along; fight fires where they break out (i.e. try to control the power of finance as much as possible, without destroying western economies in the process) and maintain the institutions of social support as best we can (i.e. crowning achievements of western civilisation such as universal healthcare and universal welfare).