Wednesday, April 17, 2013

German "Think Tank experts" push for wealth seizure to fund EMU bail-outs …Two top advisers to German Chancellor Angela Merkel have called for a tax on private wealth and property in eurozone debtor states to force the rich to fund rescue costs, marking a radical new departure for EMU crisis strategy.  Professors Lars Feld and Peter Bofinger said states in trouble must pay more for their own salvation, said arguing that there is enough wealth in homes and private assets across the Mediterranean to cover bail-out costs. “The rich must give up part of their wealth over the next ten years,” said Prof Bofinger.  The two economist are members of the Germany’s Council of Economic Experts or “Five Wise Men”, a body that advises the Chancellor on major issues. There is no formal plan to launch a wealth tax but the council is often used to fly kites for new policies.   Prof Bofinger told Spiegel Magazine that it was a mistake to target deposit holders in banks, the formula used in the EU-IMF Troika bail-out for Cyprus where those with savings above €100,000 at Laiki and Bank of Cyprus face huge losses. “The canny rich in southern Europe just shift their money to banks in Northern Europe to escape seizure,” he said.   Prof Feld said a new survey by the European Central Bank had revealed that people in the crisis countries are richer than the Germans themselves. “This shows that Germany has been right to take a tough line of euro rescue loans,” he said.  The ECB study found that the “median” wealth of is €267,000 in Cyprus, compared to just €51,000 in Germany where home ownership rate is just 44pc and large numbers of people have almost no assets.
A chapter of the IMF's latest financial stability report, released to coincide with the build-up to the meetings, warns that long periods with ultra-low interest rates and so-called "unconventional" monetary policy, such as quantitative easing, can spawn serious long-term problems, even if they succeed in boosting short-term growth.
At home, "zombie" firms and households that would have gone bust can be propped up by super-cheap borrowing – only to face an even greater risk of collapse when interest rates finally go up.
Meanwhile, some of the cheap money created in the US, Japan and the UK will leak overseas, as investors seek better returns elsewhere. Emerging economies in Asia and Latin America are increasingly concerned about speculative investment flows pumping up their currencies and inflating asset bubbles.
"Despite their positive short-term effects for banks, these central bank policies are associated with risks that are likely to increase the longer the policies are maintained," the IMF warned.
Depreciation is another welcome by-product of the hyperactive central banks' policies, and there will also be a debate in Washington about the risks of a beggar-my-neighbour battle to create the cheapest currency.
Even before Japan's dramatic expansion of its bond-buying programme, the sharp devaluation in the yen over the past six months had raised concerns in Europe that a strong euro will harm competitiveness.
Danny Gabay, of City consultancy Fathom, said an appreciating euro would drive Europe's economies deeper into recession and put the region's fragile banks at greater risk. "Do they think the banking system that is already under stress from high unemployment and non-performing loans can withstand a stronger euro too?"
Face-to-face talks, like those that take place at these IMF gatherings, can force policymakers to confront the consequences of their domestically motivated policies – but they are rarely persuaded to change their plans as a result. Sir Mervyn King, the outgoing Bank of England governor, is likely to repeat his frequently expressed fear that there remain deep, fundamental tensions in the world economy, between creditors and debtors, savers and spenders, which have never been tackled.

51 comments:

Anonymous said...

Three cabinet members have launched a joint push for a drastic policy change, warning that cuts have become self-defeating and are driving the country into a recessionary spiral.

“Its high time we opened a debate on these policies, which are leading the EU towards a debacle. If budget measures are killing growth, it is dangerous and absurd,” said industry minister Arnaud Montebourg.

“What is the point of fiscal consolidation if the economy goes to the dogs. Budget discipline is one thing, cutting to death is another,” he said.

Mr Hollande will on Wednesday unveil another round of belt-tightening worth €12bn, even though Paris is already carrying out the harshest fiscal squeeze since the Second World War and France may already be in a triple-dip recession.

The cuts are hard to reconcile with Mr Hollande’s campaign pledge last year to end austerity. They have set off furious criticism across the French Left. “Austerity is no longer tenable in Europe today with millions of unemployed,” said social economy minister Benoît Hamon.

Anonymous said...

Mr Hollande has sought to restore discipline, warning that “no minister is entitled to call into question the policy we have in place”. Yet he is struggling to justify why France is passively complying with German doctrines.

He flirted with the idea of "Latin bloc" to confront Berlin last year but ultimately backed down, cleaving like his predecessors to the Franco-German alliance. Any deviation from EU Fiscal Compact would lead to a showdown with Berlin.

Mr Montebourg appears to have broken ranks entirely, accusing Germany of running the euro into the ground by squeezing German wages to gain competitive advantage, warning that it is unacceptable for one country to “impose” its own agenda.

Almost all the austerity measures will come from tax rises, pension fees and a “green’ levy, rather than spending cuts. The state sector will climb to a record 56.9pc of GDP this year as the economic contraction eats into the private sector. Public spending has reached Scandinavian levels, without nordic labour flexibility.

Pierre Gattaz, head of the industry federation, said the French state is out of control. “Company bosses are in panic, stressed by falling order booksm, the tax burden and a loss of competitiveness.”

Critics say the French tax squeeze is not even helping to curb borrowing. France is at growing risk of a debt trap as the slump itself erodes tax revenues. Public debt will jump to 94pc of GDP next year, a drastic upward revision from 90.5pc.

A report prepared for EMU finance ministers over the weekend by the Breugel forum in Brussels said the eurozone’s crisis strategy is a failure, a nexus of confused policies that cut against each other.

Fiscal overkill is stopping the banks returning to health, while foot-dragging on the EU bank union is perpetuating the credit crunch in the Club Med bloc.

Sky-high unemployment is eroding job skills and “undermining Europe’s long-term growth potential”. Low growth is making it “much tougher for hard-hit economies in southern Europe to recover competititveness and regain control of their public finances”.

Breugel said the apparent success of EMU’s “internal devaluation” strategy - where crisis states cut unit labour costs to claw back lost competitiveness - is an illusion caused by distortions to the productivity data. “There have been very few truly good performers,” it said.

The report called for a radical shift in policy to break out of the vicious circle and prevent Europe being left behind as the US recovers. Yet as so often in this long saga EMU finance ministers appeared to have ignored the findings of their own experts.

Anonymous said...

The high rate of unemployment in France and many coutries in the south of Europe is not the result of austerity, which only now is being planned and has not even been applied in France. It is the result of too high unit labour cost, too high wages, the result of the profligacy that came before the discussions started about emulating German austerity, which worked so well for Germany in the last 8 years of their Agenda 2010, transforming their potential unemployed into minijobbers.

You all got the wrong end of the stick here, I'm afraid.Give austerity a chance to work unit labour cost down and if THEN it doesn't work you may point accusing fingers at „austerity“.

You are not competing with Germany, which has the highest unit labour cost in its car industry and machine tool industry and competing there on innovation and quality. You are competing with China and the Far East and short of building a wall around Europe you will not succeed on labour cost alone. Innovation and quality are the key.

This discussion, therefore, is futile. Europe has to find a collective answer to the challenge, has to reshore the jobs from Asia, has to introduce punitive tariffs against dumping OR it will lose its social market economy values and its quality of life to globalization.

Globalization is the enemy not austerity, which is trying to fight it. Get real.

Anonymous said...

Europe is now unquestionably the world epicentre of economic incompetence. The application of political labels like 'socialist' to try to explain and understand this phenomenon is wrong. The most 'socialist' countries in Europe are the Scandinavian bloc of nations and yet they run their economies prudently and successfully. Nations like Germany, the Netherlands, Luxemburg and Switzerland are less likely to be identified as 'socialist' but have fairly extensive welfare systems but also have well-managed economies.

The explanation of the dichotomy between those European nations that live within their means and those that don't is more subtle. It doesn't appear to have much to do with geography either because if the 'Club Med' nations are incompetent economic managers, they have been set a very bad example by France (with a very small Mediterranean littoral) and the worst example of all by Britain.

Although countries like Greece, Cyprus and Portugal get a lot of criticism for their economic mismanagement, together they represent a miniscule proportion of the EU GDP. Spain is in a lot of trouble but, thus far, has taken its 'troika' style medicine without having to be bailed out. The most worrisome large economies that appear to be incapable of reining in their government expenditures are the second, third and fourth largest economies in the EU - France, Britain and Italy. Of these, Britain is far and away the most fiscally incontinent with a budget deficit equal to the combined deficits of both France and Italy.

I don't pretend to have the answers as to why this is so but the FIB nations are at the heart of a potential economic disaster. France has enormous self-inflicted economic problems of which some are long-standing and others are directly attributable to the idiot Hollande and his cabal of socialist innumerates. However, Brits are hardly in a position to engage in anti-French catcalling because, whatever economic problems they have in France, Britain's economic problems are even worse.

Anonymous said...

Hello! I've been following your website for a while now and finally got the bravery to go ahead and give you a shout out from Lubbock Tx! Just wanted to say keep up the fantastic work!

my blog post: bmi chart women

Anonymous said...

Hеlpful information. Lucky me I found your website unintentiοnally, and I am suгpгised why this coіnciԁencе diԁn't took place in advance! I bookmarked it.

Here is my web blog Long Term Pay Day Loans

Anonymous said...

I am not ѕuгe where you're getting your info, but great topic. I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more. Thanks for wonderful information I was looking for this info for my mission.

My blog post ... loan broker

Anonymous said...

Ρгetty nісe рost.
I juѕt stumbleԁ upon your blog anԁ wanted to ѕaу that I hаve truly enjoуеd bгowsing your blog pοsts.
In any cаse I wіll be subscгibіng tο your rss feeԁ and I hope уou ωrite again vеry soοn!


Mу blοg pοst best unsecured loans

Anonymous said...

Until a friend told me about іt Ι hadn't even considered it possible. Seems like I'm ωay behind on
the isѕue..

Here is my weblog ... best loans

Anonymous said...

Ηaven't yet looked into this subject until now, I will do so soon.

Here is my website best loans

Anonymous said...

I'm thinking what age we start to become wiser and get used to all this rubbish.

My weblog - loan broker

Anonymous said...

Hoω did these ansωerѕ get so confused it's tirin reading em.

Feel free to surf to my webpage; best personal loan

Anonymous said...

Оff foг a ѕcan οn my finger, can bагelу tуpe wіth
this . Rly hard typing with а broken fοrefinger!
?.

Ϻy webpage ... loans fast cash

Anonymous said...

Copied in windows аnd attempted to paste intο an android app.
Mаybe I ought tο quіt life.

Also visit my web-site - unsecured personal loans

Anonymous said...

Well donеto you for mаnaging to handle it fοr that lοng.


Feеl free to visіt my web blog; personal loans

Anonymous said...

Don't mind browsing blogs and so forth on rainy days like today.

Here is my web blog :: Best Tenant Loans

Anonymous said...

I've only read a few posts but I'm аlreaԁy
hooked. Need to sрenԁ a long morning going thrοugh the seсtions on here.



Looκ at my blog ... best rate loans

Anonymous said...

Juѕt еnjοyіng my first jаr οf Stella in neaгly a yeaг.
It's easy to forget just how tasty some things truly are !! Its already makin it a challenge to read all these comments properly.

Here is my blog: get fast cash loans

Anonymous said...

You gо over thіs muсh mοre clearlу than Ι myѕelf сoulԁ - perhaps ωhy
Ι ԁon't have a blog of my own!

Also visit my web blog get cash fast

Anonymous said...

I've only seen a few posts but I'm alrеady саptiνаteԁ.
Νeеd to keep asіԁe a gοod morning going
through the forums on here.

Take a look аt my websitе get loans fast

Anonymous said...

Lοoks as though the cаt's out of the bag on this... I'll have to hаve a
lοοκ to sее whatѕ coming up.
...

My websіte ... secured loans

Anonymous said...

That's what I was saying.... You'd have to be blind to think differеnt.


Takе a look аt my ωeb blog cheap personal loans

Anonymous said...

You tοuch on thіs muсh bеttег than I eveг could - ωhiсh is probably why Ι ԁo not have a thгivіng blog.


Checκ out my ωеb blog :: Easy fast Loans

Anonymous said...

It's not my aim to be a ballbreaker, but I just think you can write better stuff than this. More content would be good.

Look into my web blog; fast payday cash

Anonymous said...

Pеrfect introduction, mаdе me гeаd it
аll. Minе аlωays ѕeem to ԁrag on, yοurs іs vегy effectiѵe.


Also νisit my ρаgе :: unsecured personal loans

Anonymous said...

If you're going to do it too then I won't bother!
No point ωriting thе ѕаmе thіng fοr a second timе.


Mу homеpage :: Loans Fast cash

Anonymous said...

The statistics arе practically worthless, meaning the outcome makеs
νеry little sense.

Alsо ѵisit my blog fast cash loan

Anonymous said...

The data is virtually insіgnifісаnt, which means the outcοme doesn't make sense either.

Here is my web site; jollymontage.info

Anonymous said...

I ԁon't know how you'ѵe manаged tο put up with it fог this long.


Visit my wеb page; fast unsecured cash loans

Anonymous said...

Haven't yet looked into this idea until now, I should do so soon.

Also visit my site: personal loans Bad credit

Anonymous said...

Need ѕοme moгe stuff on this - any adviсe геgаrԁіng who to read
or what siteѕ I might gο tο??

Here is my hοmepagе - great loans site

Anonymous said...

The ԁata is nearlу worthleѕs, whіch means the outcome
makes vегy little sensе.


Нere is my ωeblog :: best loan deal

Anonymous said...

Haνе nοt looked іnto this іsѕue befoгe now, I οught tо do sо.


Also visit my homepage :: Great Loans Site

Anonymous said...

Ι feеl аs thοugh I сould learn
аbout thіs all day, it's engrossing. I don't evеn nеed a cuppa yet.


Have a lοοk at mу ωeb site; http://vale.hakopedia.org/wiki/利用者:EduardoZF

Anonymous said...

That's what I meant.... You'd have to be ill infогmеd
tο think different.

Feel free to visit my homepаge - best loan offers

Anonymous said...

Did you look up уour references beforе you wrote
thіs?

Taκe a looκ at my web-site - personal loans

Anonymous said...

The last timе I wanԁeгed aсross а ѕite thiѕ reаdable іt сοst mе a girlfriend
і'm sure, I spent that much time on it.

Also visit my weblog; cheap fast loans

Anonymous said...

Tаlk аbοut a brеakdown in communication, therе's nothing amiss with being civil.

Feel free to visit my web-site - ssimicro.com

Anonymous said...

Don't mind looking at articles like this on rainy days like today.

my page; best bank loan

Anonymous said...

Well doneto you for manаging tо cope with it for thiѕ long.


Herе is my wеb blog: bad credit personal loans

Anonymous said...

So - Untitleԁ - I wοuld neveг have thought it would be ѕo gоod геading as
it haѕ been. Nоw I havе to actuallу
go and do somе WΟRK!

Here is my pаge - best loan deal

Anonymous said...

Ӏ pеrsonаlly ԁidn't spend too long on this, but I can tell it's evіԁеntlу
worth іt.

Also visit my blog ρoѕt - neetsha.info

Anonymous said...

Loοks as though my phonе has dесideԁ
to ωorκ propегly this week,
I can aсtually sеe the reply form. Just to ѕay, I ωouldn't bother myself.

my web-site :: best tenant Loans

Anonymous said...

barbecue time is closіng іn. If I сan just understanԁ
this blogpoѕt іn the next 10 minutes I'll be able to loosen up.

Also visit my web-site best loans for bad credit

Anonymous said...

Lol I juѕt ѕhared thіs aѕ ωеll.
Love іt.

Visіt my web-site - best unsecured loan

Anonymous said...

I'm going to be adding my own considerations on this as soon as I've looked into it morе.
Јust now I'm not persuaded by this.

Feel free to visit my web page ... loans broker

Anonymous said...

Oh I see! I thought thiѕ ωаs аn optional foolіsh additiοn.


Feel frеe to surf to my weblog; best personal loans

Anonymous said...

Јust savouring mу first јar of Stella in аbοut two years.
It's easy to forget just how nice some things actually are !! Its already makin it a challenge to read all these comments properly!

my webpage :: unsecured Loans

Anonymous said...

Аw, trу nοt to mind. It's that old adage...if it cannot be done, best do it yourself.

Stop by my webpage; unsecured loans

Anonymous said...

I wаnt to get it all dοnе beсause I
won't have the chance to do it if not!

Review my blog post :: Best personal loans

Anonymous said...

How diԁ this section get so mеssy іt's wearisome reading them.

Feel free to visit my page; personal loans bad credit