Monday, April 22, 2013

I quoted  Spiegel and refer to the ECB study claiming that the average Germans pay for the rich Greeks in this crisis, but to me this is all coordinated pro-Troika propaganda aimed at perpetuating the current status quo in Europe.
a) The Spiegel speaks about the euro-bailouts as if they were gifts - i.e. free transfers - while in fact they are loans
b) The research which supposedly shows that Southern Europeans are wealthier than Germans is dubious to say the least.
- It counts houses and property, i.e. assets the value of which was hugely inflated at the time of research (for Spain data is from 2008 and for most other countries 2010). These values have since collapsed and can go further down since the research has been done. Since 2008 house prices in Spain decreased by 50% . 2010 was the year that the Eurocrisis has started, Since then the GDP of Greece has dropped by 20%+, labor cost in Greece has dropped by 40% and houses have lost substantial value. Do you believe that the average Greek is as wealthy as in 2010?  Even if we assume that the methodology of the research was correct (it is certain not), are the findings of this research still valid? Obviously not.
- The ECB does not count transfers by the state, i.e. provision of good education, health, help with childcare, tax credits, housing and other benefits. These add to an individual's wealth and are much higher in Germany than Greece for example. The research should have measured the average income in each country. State transfers boost low incomes and contribute to raising the average. So the results hide some of the average German wealth.
- To my understanding, this research measures the wealth of households - not individual wealth, and the research admits that in Germany households are smaller than in Southern Europe on average. If you have more people in the household, the wealth is less per individual. But the emphasis was deliberately placed on household income because this makes Southern Europe look richer. Importantly, there is a fundamental question here: how countries like Spain and Greece with consistently lower GDP per capita since time immemorial people can be richer than Germany on average?. Shall I suggest that Germans, instead of saving to buy a house, they squander their money sailing on the frozen lakes of Finland or doing archaeology in Mongolia? Talking about GDPs, the per capita GDP of Greece (PPP - what one can buy) in 2011 was lower than that of the Czech republic's and Slovenia's. Now, thanks to all the beneficial effect of austerity it might approaching that of Zimbabwe.
To me, this research and article seem a very convenient way of telling Southern Europeans at the right time: don't complain to the Troika about the destruction of your economies and societies with these anti-economic austerity policies, don't complain about the medieval labor laws imposed on you, the halving of your wages and the asset stripping.

No comments: