Thursday, May 9, 2013

Germany, the 4th Reich, also suffered a contraction in business activity during the month, which could send a worrying signal for the rest of the bloc. Tim Moore, a senior economist at Markit, said prospects for Germany's service sector were increasingly gloomy. "A renewed slide in services output during April, alongside falling manufacturing production, raises the risk that the German economy will fail to expand over the second quarter," he said. Data gauging the level of activity across thousands of companies and regarded as a good indicator of general economic conditions came in below the crucial level of 50, which separates contraction from expansion. At 46.9 in April, Markit's  eurozone composite purchasing manager's index (PMI) was an improvement on initial readings of 46.5 and March's output of 46.5 but it has been below 50 for more than a year.  Germany's PMI, which measures growth in manufacturing and services and accounts for more than two-third's of Germany's GDP, fell to 49.2.  Germany's economy performed well during the first two years of the eurozone crisis, but growth slowed last year as it was knocked by the slowdown in China. The services sector fell to 49.6 last month from 50.9 in March – the first contraction since November. Germany's wobble is likely to drag the whole of the eurozone deeper into recession, Markit warned. "The eurozone's economic downturn is likely to have gathered momentum again in the second quarter," Chris Williamson, its chief economist, said: "The PMI is broadly consistent with GDP falling at a quarterly rate of 0.4%-0.5% in April."
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "The latest data and survey evidence fuel concern that the eurozone is headed for further GDP contraction in the second quarter after highly likely suffering a sixth successive quarter of contraction in the first quarter of 2013."
The European commission last week warned that it expects the eurozone's GDP to shrink by 0.4% in 2013, an increase on the 0.3% it had previously forecast. The recovery penciled in for 2014 will also be slower than expected and the unemployment crisis in the eurozone will persist, the commission said in its spring forecasts.
European Central Bank executive board member Benoît Cœuré said the ECB would ready to cut interest rates further if the economic outlook in the euro area worsens. The central bank cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point to a record low of 0.5% last week. "It's a historic low and we'll cut again if indicators confirm the situation is deteriorating," Cœuré said in an interview with France Inter radio station on Monday. Williamson said it was difficult to believe that a mere 25 basis point cut from an already low level will have "a material impact on an economy that is contracting so sharply". In further gloomy news, a separate EU report published on Monday showed retail sales across the eurozone dropped 0.1% in March following a 0.2% fall in February. There were also fears that the service sector is slashing prices to drum up business. Official figures released last week showed prices across the region rose 1.2% in April – well below the central bank's 2% target – while unemployment hit a new high of 12.1%. An index that measures sentiment in the eurozone improved, but illustrated concerns about Germany. "While investors' assessments of the economy for the eurozone are stabilizing, those for Germany are clouding a little, albeit at a significantly higher level," research group Sentix said.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

The only way to control the European Economy and Debt levels of members is to have some Centralised Control. The issue here is we would not entertain joining a Federal Europe governed by German influence.
It is difficult. The problem cuts across the Democratic Lines of member states resulting the shambles we see today.

We were told we were joining merely a Free Trade Zone at the outset. It was never just a Free Trade Zone. We were always destined to become part of the Federal Club.
The Conservatives lied to us. Heath enshrined the true facts under the Official Secrets Act so no one could reveal the truth.

De-Gaulle recognised the Union would not work with Britain as a member whilst the populous thought we were joining a Free Trading organisation. For a number of years he successfully blocked our entry.

Later, when Wilson had his Referendum, I believe the Public were asked again if we wanted to be part of a Free Trade Zone. Nothing more.

40 years later Politicians cant face up to the truth and still cant decide whether to stay in Europe or leave.

maa said...

It is all about us threatening to exit the EU in order to avoid having the Financial Transaction Levy charged on our poor fat cat banking sector which would have the b.tards repay some of the trillions of £/€s of public money that have been and are still being poured into their coffers.

With one hand we say we will leave and put pressure on the EU to moderate their demands for the banking sector to pay their way and on the other we placate the nutty right of the Tory party who just hate anything foreign or European unless they happen to be young and beautiful and from Poland!!.

The risks are many – we run the risk of souring further our relationships with the real economies of Europe and all in an effort to protect those slimy city slickers yet again.

The anti Europe propaganda so loved by the Tories in order to deflect the blame from them has already given birth to a regressive form of anti foreigner anti minority politics and ofcourse who knows how far that will develop; very risky process.

The real economy may yet again get sacrificed on the alters of the City of London and the north south divide will grow even wider; we are just being blackmailed by the money lenders yet again.

I thought that we'd coughed up enough already but obviously not.

Anonymous said...

It is all about us threatening to exit the EU in order to avoid having the Financial Transaction Levy charged on our poor fat cat banking sector which would have the b.tards repay some of the trillions of £/€s of public money that have been and are still being poured into their coffers.

With one hand we say we will leave and put pressure on the EU to moderate their demands for the banking sector to pay their way and on the other we placate the nutty right of the Tory party who just hate anything foreign or European unless they happen to be young and beautiful and from Poland!!.

The risks are many – we run the risk of souring further our relationships with the real economies of Europe and all in an effort to protect those slimy city slickers yet again.

The anti Europe propaganda so loved by the Tories in order to deflect the blame from them has already given birth to a regressive form of anti foreigner anti minority politics and ofcourse who knows how far that will develop; very risky process.

The real economy may yet again get sacrificed on the alters of the City of London and the north south divide will grow even wider; we are just being blackmailed by the money lenders yet again.

I thought that we'd coughed up enough already but obviously not.

Anonymous said...

The Tories are moving further to the right. However, their problem is that they cannot go far to the right enough to satisfy the UKIP types, without making themselves unelectable as they alienate the centre ground voters.


UK Elections are won from the centre ground. Not from the far right or the far left. The conservatives are now verging on the far right and they will pay the price at the polls. A coalition with UKIP is out out the question as UKIP will not get any MP's. They will however, splinter the Right wing vote. As the Lib Dems have probably consigned themselves to the electoral dustbin after their disastrous pact with the Tories, the next election should be a shoo in for Labour, as long as they too do not start trying to emulate UKIP also....

Anonymous said...

The Tories are moving further to the right. However, their problem is that they cannot go far to the right enough to satisfy the UKIP types, without making themselves unelectable as they alienate the centre ground voters.


UK Elections are won from the centre ground. Not from the far right or the far left. The conservatives are now verging on the far right and they will pay the price at the polls. A coalition with UKIP is out out the question as UKIP will not get any MP's. They will however, splinter the Right wing vote. As the Lib Dems have probably consigned themselves to the electoral dustbin after their disastrous pact with the Tories, the next election should be a shoo in for Labour, as long as they too do not start trying to emulate UKIP also....

Anonymous said...


The Tories are moving further to the right. However, their problem is that they cannot go far to the right enough to satisfy the UKIP types, without making themselves unelectable as they alienate the centre ground voters.

UK Elections are won from the centre ground. Not from the far right or the far left. The conservatives are now verging on the far right and they will pay the price at the polls. A coalition with UKIP is out out the question as UKIP will not get any MP's. They will however, splinter the Right wing vote. As the Lib Dems have probably consigned themselves to the electoral dustbin after their disastrous pact with the Tories, the next election should be a shoo in for Labour, as long as they too do not start trying to emulate UKIP also....

What do you mean moving "to the right"?

You mean traditional right-wingism of fascism? Anti-immigration, centralising of state power in the economy, ultra-nationalism, fusion of state power and religion and so on ... ?

There are liberal and left-wing reasons to oppose the EU expansionism. You don't have to surrender your leftist reasoning because the "right-wingers" are on the horizon?

Anonymous said...

I doubt Cameron will survive his Eurosceptics, this looks like his long overdue response to an emboldened UKIP, too little to late, they are far to powerful for Cameron to reign in, Farage will slaughter him.The bright young thing hasn't got what it takes to take on his enemies, of which there are many, not least Murdoch it's a shame really i was hoping to see him suffer in 2015, but people are now being sentenced for their part in the hacking at NOW. If he survives, it it will be a miracle and will show us up for the shamocracy we are. who'd have thought it The leader of the Country v Cameron ;-)