Tuesday, August 6, 2013

ECB is one of the very few that do not publish minutes of its meetings. Current rules mean they are published 30 years after rate decisions are taken. Other banks, such as the Bank of England or the US Federal Reserve, publish their minutes with a time lag of some weeks. On the eurozone, Draghi suggested that economic indicators showed that it had come through the worst of the crisis. He also indicated that the low interest rate is to be kept in place for the foreseeable future using "forward guidance" language, first introduced at a press conference last month. The move is a bid to signal to markets that the ECB will keep rates slow enough to spur economic growth, amid tentative signs of economic recovery. Asked to compare the situation to this time last year, when the eurozone was in the throes of the crisis, Draghi said: "All in all the picture seems to be better from all angles than it was a year ago." Draghi said that looking beyond the game-changing promise he made a year ago to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro, single currency states had made "significant" progress in policy implementation over the 12 months. He singled out reform efforts undertaken in bail out countries Greece, Ireland and Portugal and noted the labour market reforms in Spain.
"Look at the results," he said. "If you look at structural improvements, all across the board I don't think you can find a country which hasn't improved."
"Look at current account surpluses - the actual figures are quite impressive ... you have strong increases in exports, not just in Germany but in Spain and Italy."

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Italy is in focus this morning, with the release of second-quarter GDP figures that will show how its economy fared between April and June.

Analysts predict that the Italian economy shrank by 0.4%, which extend its recession into eight quarters. It's already the longest slump since records began in 1970. On a more positive note, that would be an improvement on the 0.6% decline in Q1 2013.

The data is released as Italy remains engrossed by the future of Silvio Berlusconi, and the impact his tax fraud conviction, jail term and public office ban will have on the country's coalition government.

As Michael Hewson of CMC Markets warns, the Silvio Show is a damaging distraction for prime minister Enrico Letta.


With a debt to GDP ratio rising to 130% of GDP and unemployment at 12.1%, the Italian economy desperately needs the government to continue its economic reform program, or run the risk of losing being on the receiving end of another ratings downgrade and risking the current stability in the bond markets.

Unfortunately Italian PM Letta is not being helped by the media circus surrounding the Berlusconi trial and verdict, which is preventing him from pushing on with a reform program. The fragility of the coalition remains the biggest obstacle to the next steps in this particular economic story.

Anonymous said...

The IMF called on president Francois Hollande to slow the pace of fiscal tightening next year to avoid an economic relapse, pouring cold water on claims that a fresh cycle of healthy growth is now under way.

“Given the still hesitant recovery, the government should ease the pace of adjustment,” it said in its annual healthcheck. It warned of “significant” contagion for surrounding states if French growth stalls again.



A chorus of French economists has accused Mr Hollande of wishful thinking in proclaiming the crisis to be over. Partick Artus from Natixis said recent signs of stabilisation are largely due to restocking and should be treated with great caution. “This is not recovery,” he said.

The Left-leaning Observatoire Economique said the EMU policy regime remains contractionary and risks pushing France’s economy into outright deflation next year.