Thursday, August 8, 2013

"The IMF said Germany’s currency is undervalued by up to 10pc, roughly the same as China, but monetary union is jamming the correction mechanism with EMU." Only 10pc? I would have thought nearer 15-18% at least compared to southern Med countries.
It is also interesting to see the IMF poking the sleeping giant with a sharp stick. It begs the question why the main prop beneath the whole EMU is being provoked into potentially wiping out western and southern European economies by turning off the tap of free money. Perhaps that is the plan? Oh well. Time to microwave some popcorn and watch the silly people shouting at each other. “Fiscal over-performance should be firmly avoided,” said the Fund in its annual health check on the country. “Should growth prospects sour and labour markets weaken, proactive fiscal policies would be needed. A large shock may necessitate invoking the escape clause under the debt brake rule in order to support domestic activity and employment,” it said, referring to a clause in the German constitution mandating a cut in the structural deficit to near balance by 2016. The IMF said Germany is barely above recession level, with growth of just 0.3pc this year followed by a Japan-style stagnation for the rest of decade with a peak growth rate of 1.3pc. The country will lag the United States by the biggest margin in modern history each year until 2018. While the language of the IMF report is polite, it masks a bitter dispute between the Fund and Germany over the nature of the EMU malaise, and whether austerity and reform really have cleared the way for a viable recovery....“Fiscal over-performance should be firmly avoided,” said the [International Monetary] Fund in its annual health check on the country.[Germany]" If only the Germans would perform fiscally like the Greeks everything would be rosy, I suppose. But they will insist on making things and collecting taxes and saving money and stupid stuff like that. By the way, I can't imagine my doctor telling me during my annual health check that I should firmly avoid being too healthy. But then my doctor isn't mad...Now, if one country is running a trade surplus then another must be running a trade deficit.   How do you finance a deficit?  By increasing your debt load of course. Now Germany is telling the PIIGS to decrease their debt loads, but making that virtually impossible by doing everything it can to maintain or increase it's trade surplus. The debt can only be paid back if Germany runs a trade deficit.  PIIGS debt is the other side of the coin to German surpluses...you see?

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