Wednesday, December 4, 2013

On Friday, Moody's announced it had rare good news for Greece – it was upgrading its credit rating from C to Caa3 because of improved results in the country's economic adjustment programme. Despite heightened tensions, the move was seen as an immediate boost for prime minister Antonis Samaras's fragile coalition government, which has pledged to return to international capital markets next year.
"Moody's expects that the government will achieve (and possibly outperform) its target of a primary balance in 2013, and record a surplus in 2014 in accordance with the adjustment programme," the agency said. "Based on the government's budget execution record up until October, Moody's believes that [its] deficit target is likely to be within reach."
Greece was forced to seek bailout aid from its "troika" of lenders after a series of credit agency downgrades plunged the nation into its worst economic crisis in modern times. Since narrowly surviving bankruptcy in May 2010, Athens has existed on rescue funds drawn down from a 240 bn euro financial assistance package, the largest in global history.
Despite pulling off the biggest fiscal consolidation of any OECD country – relentless austerity has reduced the country's budget deficit from over 15% to 3% – Athens is once again at loggerheads with its troika of lenders over cost-cutting reforms and a looming fiscal gap.
The creditors' decision to postpone their review – upon which Greece's next €1bn (£0.83bn) tranche in aid now hangs – not only heightens tensions with the government, in a week when parliament begins debating next year's budget, but will almost certainly delay discussion over how to plug the budget black hole.
The government is keen to wrap up the talks by the time it assumes the rotating EU presidency in January.
But in an increasingly frenzied political environment – with lawmakers openly threatening to break ranks if called upon to pass yet more belt-tightening measures – officials also admit that relations with lenders have hit rock bottom.
In addition to pressing ahead with mass layoffs in the public sector, the troika organisations are demanding reforms in the real estate market – widely perceived as one of the biggest drains on the banking system and lifeless economy.

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