No one doubts that 2014 will be another year of dramatic change in south Asia. Economies in India and its neighbours are struggling to create growth and jobs to satisfy hundreds of millions of young people. In Bangladesh, whatever the result of polls in January, the battle between Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia will continue to paralyse politics – and could hinder efforts to better conditions for workers in the country's vast garment industry.
In India, a general election in May – the biggest democratic exercise in history – will pit an ailing Congress party (led by the scion of the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty) against the Hindu nationalist opposition, whose candidate is the controversial Narendra Modi. There have been upsets before but all the indications are that the Congress party is in trouble. There is a huge list of outstanding issues – from major structural economic weaknesses to violence against women – to be dealt with by whoever gains power in May.
That task may be complicated by the aftermath of the US and Nato pull-out from Afghanistan. All that country's neighbours have a stake in the aftemath and will do whatever they need to protect their interests. In disputed Kashmir, 2013 saw an increase in clashes along the de facto border splitting the former kingdom between India and Pakistan. Violence is likely to worsen this coming year. There is likely to be trouble elsewhere in the mountains too, as Nepal tries yet again to find some kind of political stability.
Down in the Indian Ocean, President Mahinda Rajapaksa will seek to further bolster his hold on power and his popularity in Sri Lanka. Many in the Maldives will simply want calm. By the end of 2014, there will be plenty of others across this region who will share that wish.
7 comments:
All-night talks to solve peace process issues in Northern Ireland fail
Chairman of the negotiations Dr Richard Haass says talks have failed to secure consensus on final set of proposals to deal with flags, disputed parades and the legacy of the Troubles
Consumer inflation in Germany moderated in November, according to the Federal Statistics Office. Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in November and at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent, in-line with forecasts.
The Consumer Price Index is used to gauge price changes of a representative basket of goods and services purchased by households. It is the main indicator of consumer inflation.
For yet another month, falling energy prices were the main factor behind the slower pace of inflation. Mineral oil products, including heating oil and motor fuels, declined 6.5 percent. Excluding energy, consumer inflation rose 1.8 percent compared to year-ago levels. Energy prices have declined 0.3 percent compared to November 2012, official data showed. Complementing the fall in energy prices were information processing equipment and consumer electronics, which declined at least 5.2 percent.
The price of food continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace than the previous month. Food prices rose at an annualized rate of 3.2 percent, compared to 4.2 percent the prior month. The price of butter rose 26.5 percent, olive oil 16 percent and dairy products and eggs 8.5 percent.
The rate of consumer inflation continues to be a cause of concern for the European Central Bank. Inflation fell to the slowest pace in four years in October, according to official Eurostat estimates. This created a stir in the financial markets, as investors speculated about whether the ECB would implement negative deposit rates to bring inflation back toward its target levels.
Inflation in Europe’s largest economy will average 1.5 percent this year and accelerate at a 1.9 percent pace in 2014, according to government advisers.
In other news, consumer prices in Portugal declined at an annual rate of 0.2 percent, according to official government estimates. CPI averaged 0.4 percent in the 12-months through November.
More Germans were unemployed in November, according to the Nuremberg-based Federal Labour Agency.
Unemployment benefits increased for a fourth month, as Europe’s largest economy struggles with strong growth headwinds. The German economy expanded 0.3 percent in the third quarter, driven mostly by domestic demand. This represents a considerable drop from the prior quarter, where GDP accelerated at a pace of 0.7 percent. Economists believe the German economy will expand 0.4 percent in the final three months of the year.
In total, the number of people out of work increased by 10,000, after gaining a revised 3,000 the prior month. A median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted no change to unemployment levels. The unemployment rate, which measures the proportion of the labour force not currently employed, was unchanged at 6.9 percent.
“Germany’s economy is growing at a moderate pace in the fourth quarter and this is reflected in the number of unemployed,” said Andreas Moeller of WGZ Bank.
Europe’s largest economy could be heading toward its “natural rate of unemployment,” according to Carsten Brzeski of ING Group NV in Brussels. “After the introduction of a minimum wage, it will be hard to squeeze additional positive effects out of the labour market.”
Despite the recent unemployment hurdles, Germany is considerably ahead of the Eurozone in job creation. The 17-nation currency bloc is struggling with an unemployment rate of 12.2 percent, the highest in its history. The situation is much worse in Greece and Spain, where unemployment rates remain well above 25 percent.
The German economy remains the lone bright spot in an otherwise struggling euro region. Germany’s rate of consumer inflation rose at an annual pace of 1.3 percent in November. Euro area consumer inflation fell to a four-year low in October, prompting the European Central Bank to investigate unconventional policies to bring inflation back toward its target.
The eurozone aid programme for struggling Spanish banks closed on Tuesday after providing some €41bn (£34bn) to get them through the debt crisis.
The support "has proven instrumental in recapitalising and restructuring Spain's troubled banks, which are today on a sound footing," said Klaus Regling, head of the European Stability Mechanism, the fund set up to help eurozone countries at the height of the crisis.
"Spain's programme exit after one year is an impressive success story," Regling said in an ESM statement.
"Despite the challenges ahead I am confident that the ESM's support, combined with structural reforms, will allow the Spanish economy to achieve stability and substantial growth," he added.
In early 2012, it looked almost certain that Spain, crippled by banks over-exposed to a collapsed property market, would need a full international bailout as was the case for Greece, Ireland and Portugal earlier.
These clowns are unutterably dumb if thy anyone on the planet still believes a single word from the complete and utterly farcical pronunciations from these evil despicable corrupt morons.
Just WTF is the DT doing printing this crock of horsesh*t.
Is it some kind of joke, some sick parody, a wind up for the new year. Is it because some plank, a troll or a shill has been given this bollox to regurgitate here for amusement of the illiterate, the retarded and the most gullible half wits in society.
If this article was in the Beano, I would see the funny side, but the fact that some apparently destitute scribbler actually took time out to write this drivel leaves me in no doubt at all the DT has finally severed all sense of reality and actual journalism and instead descended into the pits of some kind of modern day Pravda whilst the editors are fluffing the barclays with their mouths wide open
The Year in Euroland
The single currency still faces serious problems in 2014.
Updated Dec. 30, 2013 9:17 p.m. ET
The euro zone is poised to enter 2014 on a high note, relatively speaking. For several years it has been easier to call the future of the common currency into doubt than predict its success. But in 2013 the euro survived the tremors in Cyprus, Ireland exited its bailout program, and watching euro-zone sovereign-bond spreads is no longer a daily trauma.
Speaking of Greece, the economy remains a shambles and the country's debt is...
After years of allowing Athens's central plaza to bear the marks of riot and wrath, the Greek authorities have been tarting up Syntagma square as Greece prepares to take over the rotating presidency of the EU on New Year's Day.
Greece's assumption of the role – which comes with the ability to regulate policy in the 28-nation bloc – marks a major milestone for a state whose continued EU membership appeared far from assured a year ago.
Even now, four years after triggering the debt drama that would become Europe's worst crisis since the second world war, there is scepticism over whether Athens will last the course.
Monday's pre-dawn drive-by shooting attack at the home of Germany's ambassador to Greece underlined the volatile mood. The bullet casings found at the scene embodied the sentiments of a nation that blames Berlin for years of grinding austerity – the price of receiving more than €240bn (£200bn) in emergency loans from the EU and IMF. The fear of social unrest is never far away.
None of this is lost on Greece's deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Evangelos Venizelos, who was quick to describe the shooting as an "attempt to tarnish Greece's image" before the EU presidency.
Greek antipathy towards Germany is one aspect of the crisis but so too is mounting hostility towards the EU.
Post a Comment