Friday, December 27, 2013

The People's Bank of China is seeking to allay fears of a credit crunch after a shortage of day-to-day cash among commercial banks in the world's second biggest economy drove market interest rates to almost 10% on Monday.
Beijing said it would top up the $50bn in liquidity provided to the markets last week as it sought to counter concerns that China's financial sector is gripped by the sort of squeeze that caused havoc among western banks during the crisis of 2007-08.
Benchmark interbank rates – the rates at which banks lend to each other rather than to the public – climbed to 9.8% at one stage on Monday, their highest for six months, despite the central bank's cash injections last week.
The actions by the PBoC were a response to signs of tensions in the far east's financial markets, caused by an earlier tightening of policy by the central bank, aimed at reducing the risk of cheap credit causing asset bubbles.
Banks in China often find themselves short of cash at the end of the year as companies increase their demand for capital and institutions have to meet tough regulatory requirements. China's growing shadow banking system, which tends to offer higher interest rates to investors, has also been draining funds from traditional banks.
Lorraine Tan, director of equity research at S&P Capital IQ, told CNCBC that the PBoC may need to take more action.
"I think it's just a momentary thing … it's a seasonal issue, a rush for cash. Definitely the PBoC needs to pump in more money, which it has been doing, but a little bit more is probably necessary."
Beijing pumped trillions of yuan into the economy during the global meltdown of 2008-09 and succeeded in ensuring that recession was short-lived. But officials have grown increasingly concerned that the stimulus encouraged excessive borrowing by commercial property companies and by local government. The PBoC has been pushing up interest rates in recent months to rein in credit growth without causing a "hard landing".
Investors fear the combination of Fed tapering – the gradual winding down of America's quantitative easing programme – and tighter China interest rates could weigh on emerging market currencies and assets, as it did back in June.
Worries about the banking system contributed to a 2% drop in Shanghai shares on Friday, although the stock market steadied on Monday after Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said she would be revising up her forecasts for US growth in 2014.
The export-focused economies of east Asia are heavily dependent on demand from the world's biggest economy, and Lagarde said recent data from the US suggested that the Fund's estimate of 2.6% for 2014 was too low....Four years ago I predicted that China would fragment.
The utterly corrupt, booming golden triangle would dump the dirt poor hinterland. In China today vast, mega-mega cities are growing in an uncontrolled way with rural workers flooding into these cities. Result? lawlessness, destructive pollution, slave labour and mini oligarchies. The collapse of China will be a black swan. It will come suddenly. One final nail in their coffin. You cannot pay off real debts with paper money and theory assets.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...


The Reserve Bank of India said users, holders and traders of "virtual currencies, including Bitcoins" were exposing themselves to "potential financial, legal, customer protection and security related risks".


"There is no underlying or backing of any asset for virtual currencies and as such their value seems to be a matter of speculation," the central bank said in a statement.


Bitcoins, a digital currency comprising code that can be "mined" using software, can be traded via a number of online platforms or spent on goods where the seller accepts Bitcoin as payment.


They offer a largely anonymous payment system and have begun gaining popularity in India and countries about the world.

Anonymous said...

David John Marotta, expert financiar pe Wall Street si consilier pentru Forbes, a avertizat investitorii sa-si faca un „bagaj” de supravietuire din care sa nu lipseasca hrana, arma si munitia.

„Arma poate fi ultima pe lista, dar nu trebuie sa lipseasca. Exista oameni teribili in lumea asta si o sa va simtiti mult mai in siguranta daca voi si vecinii vostri de incredere veti avea arme de foc!”, a fost anuntul socant facut de Marotta.

Notificarile sale catre clienti fac parte din scenariul „apocalipsa financiara”, cel mai rau lucru ce se poate intampla cand institutiile nationale vor suferi „un declin precipitat”.

Marotta explica pentru alarmisti ca el, personal, nu crede intr-un declin brusc, ci mai degraba intr-unul de lunga si chinuitoare durata, dar trebuie sa satisfaca cerintele clientilor, care vor sfaturi pentru diverse situatii „apocaliptice”.

Din punctul lui de vedere, datoria nationala este un factor de prim risc pentru ca are la baza dolarul, moneda ce se depreciaza la nivel international. Obamacare este socotita cea mai proasta legislatie din ultimii 75 de ani, iar scandalul NSA afecteaza SUA dinspre exterior. Such a mess! Si la ce mai folosesc armele daca se porneste tavalugul? „Macar sa nu-ti mai fie frica”, explica expertul.