In the wake of years of a crisis that have shaken Europe to the core and raised existential questions, 2014 will bring a major shake-up in the political forces ascendant across the EU, in the people running things, in how the EU's rival institutions cope with and against one another.
Elections for the European parliament in May promise to be the most momentous ever held for the Strasbourg chamber. The angst of the elites across the continent is that the chamber will be captured by a motley crew of Europhobes dedicated to the destruction or subversion of the institution they have conquered.
As a result of years of austerity, soaring unemployment and the "renationalization" of European politics, anti-EU populists will do well in the elections, from Britain to Greece. France could be the big one, with Marine Le Pen's Front National tipped to win the election nationally.
The mavericks and populists will not win the election. But they could secure symbolic victories, take around 30% of seats, shape the agenda, cause the mainstream parties to trim their policies towards the far-right, and benefit from the perceived failings of lackluster leadership among the mainstream in Europe.
The fallout from the elections will also affect the next bout of horse-trading. October will see the appointment of a new European Commission, a new president of the European Council chairing EU summits and mediating between national leaders, and a new foreign policy chief.
There will be a battle between the new parliament and national leaders over who should make these key appointments and there will be the usual multi-dimensional scrapping over the plum jobs.
While these games preoccupy Brussels, Europe's real world is one of deepening social and economic impact from years of austerity and euro crisis, of the political costs of minimal growth, effective deflation, mass unemployment.
The British question will move up the agenda. Will the UK be the first country, and a big one, to quit the EU? This will concentrate continental minds.
Angela Merkel in Berlin, in the first year of her third term as German chancellor, is Europe's undisputed leader. The year should show if she really has an idea of what she wants her European legacy to be and whether she can get there. France's President François Hollande cuts an increasingly sorry figure on the European stage – he needs a new deal with Germany but there is little sign of that happening. French weakness and Italian messiness will reinforce the prevalent sense of worry about European decline.
Ian Traynor in Brussels
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The European Central Bank has also voted to leave borrowing costs unchanged across the eurozone at their current record lows.
•The headline rate remains at 0.25%
•The deposit facility rate (what it pays banks on their deposits at the ECB) remains at 0.0%
•The marginal lending rate (what banks pay to borrow overnight from the ECB) remains at 0.75%
Mario Draghi, the ECB president, will give a press conference at 1.30pm GMT to explain the decision to the Frankfurt press pack.
The International Monetary Fund believes considerable uncertainly still hangs over the Greek economy, despite the country announcing it will exit an IMF-EU bailout this year as scheduled.
IMF spokesman William Murray told reporters there has been renewed investor interest in some parts of the Greek economy, locked in a sharp contraction since 2008.
But he added: "There are a lot of challenges ahead. The uncertainty is still large. But our experience suggests that once a virtuous circle is under way, confidence can return quite fast."
He declined to speculate just when such a turnaround will happen.
On December 30, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said Greece was on track to exit the IMF and European Union rescue plan this year and to fund its needs from the commercial market.
The problems in Greece were, and still are, the politicians. The have traded a current account deficit, caused by too many public sector workers, for a 4 billion Euro black hole in their social security system, caused by allowing too many of their public sector workers to take early retirement. The AVERAGE age of retirement in Greece is 58 years and 3 months.
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