Monday, February 17, 2014

“The German Court has parked a tank on the lawn of the ECB,” said one expert closely involved with the case. “The bank’s nuclear weapon is no longer operational, but you could say they bought 18 months of eurozone calm, so the OMT served its purpose.”
The court judgment was shockingly harsh, though it left a possible way out if the OMT is redesigned and greatly limited in scope. “There are important reasons to assume it exceeds the ECB’s monetary policy mandate and thus infringes the powers of the Member States, and that it violates the prohibition of monetary financing of the budget,” said the court.
The eight judges said they were “inclined to regard the OMT decision as an Ultra Vires act”, adding that this “creates an obligation of German authorities to refrain from implementing it”.
The verdict is a blow to the ECB’s president Mario Draghi, who unveiled the OMT in July 2012 with his pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save monetary union. The gambit restored faith in Spanish and Italian sovereign debt almost overnight and averted the imminent collapse of EMU, but Mr Draghi was always sailing close to the wind. While the German finance ministry backed the scheme, the Bundesbank and top German economists opposed it vehemently as a fiscal blank cheque for Club Med, and a fatal erosion of ECB independence.
The ECB insisted on Friday that “the OMT programme falls within its mandate”. One EU official said the Bundesbank is legally obliged to take part in OMT operations if called upon, but admitted that nobody can force it to obey. “If necessary we could still implement the OMT without Germany, but it would not send a good signal,” he said.
Hans Redeker, from Morgan Stanley, said the court - or Verfassungsgericht - had crippled the ECB. “They taken away the ECB’s weaponry, and greatly increased the hurdle for QE. The ECB won’t be able to respond as another wave of deflation hits from Asia, leaving the eurozone a step closer to a Japanese crisis,” he said.
Ebrahim Rahbari, from Citigroup, said the surprise decision was a “clear negative” that binds the hands of the ECB. While the European Court may eventually validate the OMT, it cannot deviate far from the German verdict without provoking a political backlash.
Udo di Fabio, a former judge at the Verfassungsgericht and author of earlier rulings on the euro, said the court is deliberately fencing in the ECJ, constraining its room for manoeuvre by issuing its own prior judgment.
Investors reacted calmly to the news, with bond yields falling slightly in southern Europe. “Italian and Spanish bonds have a gigantic comfort zone of 600 basis points. The market view is that the ECJ will wink this through when the time comes so there is nothing to worry about,” said Andrew Roberts, from RBS.
This is the first time that the Verfasungsgericht has referred a case to the European Court. Contrary to general belief, however, the ECJ is not the higher judicial body. The referral is a courtesy, and in this case a clever political ploy.
The Verfassungsgericht ruled in its famous judgment on the Maastricht Treaty in 1993 that it reserves the right to strike down any EU law that breaches the German Grundgesetz or Basic Law.
It went even further in its ruling on the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, reminding the EU authorities in acid terms that the sovereign states are the “masters of the EU Treaties” and not the other way around.
It set out limits to EU integration and warned that whole areas of policy “must forever remain German”, adding that Germany must be prepared to “refuse further participation in the European Union” if EU aggrandizement threatens its democracy in any way. Today Europe's most powerful court dropped another bombshell.

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Anonymous said...

'Unemployment and despair'

As he emerged from talks with President Napolitano on Monday morning, Mr Renzi - the Democratic Party leader - talked of his commitment and determination and the need for urgency on reform.

"The most pressing emergency, which concerns my generation and others, is the emergency of labour, of unemployment and of despair," Mr Renzi told reporters.

Continue reading the main story

Start Quote
His hope is that popular support will buy him the political space to embrace major reform: to open up the Italian economy, to make hiring and firing easier, and to go for growth ”
End Quote image of Gavin Hewitt
Gavin Hewitt

Europe editor

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Constitutional changes would be put forward by the end of February, labour reforms by March and improvements to bureaucracy the following month.

Italy has a 41% rate of unemployment among 15-24 year-olds and an overall rate of 12.7%.

Democratic Party colleague Maria Elena Boschi said it would take several days to form a new administration.

Mr Renzi's initial priority will be to secure the support of the small New Centre Right (NCD) party in order to command a parliamentary majority and start cabinet building.