Uncertainty over China's growth path is more fundamental. For more than a decade, China's stunning growth has fuelled a remarkable price boom that has flattered policymakers in commodity-exporting emerging markets from Russia to Argentina. Remember how the Argentines were able to thumb their noses at the pro-market "Washington Consensus" in favor of an interventionist "Buenos Aires consensus"?
Now, not so much. China's near-term growth is an open question, as its new leadership attempts to curb the unsustainable credit-fuelled boom. Until recently, global markets had not seemed to recognize that a growth recession was even a possibility. Certainly, if there ever is a pause in China's heady growth, today's emerging-market turmoil will seem like a mere hiccup compared to the earthquake that will ensue.
There are other notable, if less consequential, fundamentals in the mix. The shale-gas revolution in the US is changing the global energy equation. Energy exporters such as Russia are feeling the downward pressure on export prices. At the same time, hyper-low-cost energy in the US is affecting Asian manufacturers' competitiveness, at least for some products. And, as Mexico reforms its energy sector, the range of pressures on Asian manufacturing will expand; Mexico is already benefiting from cost pressures in China.
Japan's Abenomics is also important for some countries, as the sharp depreciation in the value of the yen puts pressure on Korea in particular and on Japan's Asian competitors in general. In the long run, a Japanese resurgence would, of course, be beneficial to the region's economies.
Stability in the eurozone has been perhaps the single most important positive factor underpinning market confidence in the last year. But, as periphery countries move into current-account balance and northern countries such as Germany run massive surpluses, the flipside has been deterioration in emerging-market surpluses, heightening their vulnerabilities.
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