Monday, March 24, 2014

The current economic woes seem to be related not to the amount of money, but rather the amount of money in circulation i.e. cash flow.
Not being a qualified economist it strikes me that money is no longer seen as the tool facilitating transactions with confidence, instead is has become the commodity element of the transaction. Something you buy and hold into as an asset.
I don't see how buying the 'money' of someone else is going to alleviate the problem any more than us buying our own 'money'.
Many of the € zone's problems spring from austerity, and political vacillation. And today we read that Germany wants to run a budget surplus when, if it wanted to help, it should run a deficit.
Killing domestic (that is € zone) demand, and expecting the rest of the world to make up the difference via imports from the € zone and reduced exports to the € zone will go down like a lead balloon in the UK and US. Tensions are already pretty high.
Those who have attempted to stimulate demand, both domestic and global, are already fed up. They should be the ones devaluing their currencies relative to the €. In order to take away the free lunch that they have been providing....I am sure you must know that the Federal Reserve QE did not expand the money supply very much More than 90% of the assets bought by the Fed were from banks and payed for with central bank money: reserves. Reserves are not money used in the general economy. Except for a relatively small amount of cash, reserves are all in the form of electronic $numbers. Banks use them to settle financial transactions between other banks, to buy government debt, to lend to other banks, or to buy cash from the Treasury. Those that do not have a Federal Reserve account with the Fed cannot use them. Almost all of the 'money supply' comes from private bank lending which create deposits. All the fed does is set he price of loans by setting the benchmark interest rate....So it is impossible for the ECB to do QE ? It's also impossible for the ECB to print money like the FED since the Euro is not the worlds reserve currency the way the dollar is. The dollar benefits from the fact that things like oil are sold in US dollars. So everyone needs to hold US dollars that gives it a huge advantage over the Euro preventing hyperinflation.For European countries the only path forward is to cut costs and reform this is more difficult then cutting costs through inflation but it comes down to the same thing only you do not debase your currency.We have tried the printing money thing in Southern Europe forever it doesn't work,they need Teutonic medicine. This is a ridiculous concept buying US toilet paper. Most money in circulation is non coinage, non bills , electronic dots and promissory debt held by suppliers, retailers and other creditors.
If the system needs more liquidity, which is suspect recognizing the inflation on real estate and the size of personal debt servicing to income flows............more credit to those heavily incumbered be it personal, corporate or governments is not wise especially when used to purchase consumption items instead of investment tools that generate revenue flows. What the Central Bank should be doing instead is financing (providing electronic capital) to regions of the Eu that have massive under employment investing in either revenue generating projects like nuclear power stations , hydro electric power stations, and ocean current and tidal power stations that can reduce Europe's dependency on dangerous Russian energy and stimultaneously invest and make the economic system more efficient by reducing operating costs.
Things which would benefit nations best and reduce operating costs would be things like cheap loans to increase insulation in citizens homes, replacement of lighting with low input LED's on city streets, LED's in public buildings, universities, hospitals, and private homes. Governments also should mandate higher building code requirements, more use of long lasting materials on roofing and siding and use of better non corrosive materials in bridges and over passes. The difference being is the Central Bank should stimulate by having investments rather than financing consumption expenditures. Reduce the costs to society and increase income generation and create jobs.
Savings realized by cutting operating costs means taxes get more mileage in the public sector and private citizens are more able to bring down their high and dangerous level of personal debt..

1 comment:

Anonymous said...


Ukraine's defence minister Andriy Parubiy claimed that Russian forces could attack at any moment. "Putin's aim is not Crimea but all of Ukraine,"

Do we remember Benghazi and the warning that all people will be killed by Gaddafi? The next day the rebel leader said that our martyrs have now reached 15,000. It is obvious that the government in Ukraine tries to play the same trick, inviting the foreign forces into the country through which it will consolidate its power.