Sunday, April 6, 2014

Hungary vote - exit poll...

The rise of Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister who is seeking another strong mandate in Sunday's Sunday's elections, is a story which raises serious questions about the political trajectory of his country in the years since the end of the cold war.
Where there should be substantial parties alternating in power, there is one party seemingly entrenched for years to come, with the only really vigorous opposition from the extreme right. Where there should be varied media and an independent judiciary, there is state and party control, not complete but moving in that direction.
Where there should be business freedom, there is state interference, so that even running a corner shop selling tobacco requires a permit which only the favored can acquire. Where the arts should be autonomous, placemen slip into the jobs of theatre directors. Where there should be an acceptance of the European project of which the nation has chosen to be a part, there is constant railing against rule by Brussels, sometimes even compared to Moscow.
Mr Orban is a gifted and charismatic man who began his political life with a speech in 1989 in Heroes' Square in Budapest after the reburial of Imre Nagy and other martyrs of the revolution of 1956, calling for free elections and the withdrawal of Soviet troops. He then had his share of ups and downs in the competition between parties, was bruised and rebuffed but returned to the fray.
Benefiting from the incompetence of governments of the left, he pulled together most of the centre right around his party, Fidesz, and in 2009 won office by a landslide. He seems at that time to have decided two things. One was that the best way to run a Hungarian government was to constantly champion the rights of a small country against outside interference, whether the outsiders were multinational businesses or bureaucrats in the EU or the IMF, even if that defense was often more rhetorical than real. The other was that everything that could be done to ensure his party's continuation in power would be done.
Every possible institutional amendment, reform or revision of the political system, or means of increasing patronage that would benefit the party would be pursued. Some of what was done was sensible, some was arguable, some was outrageous. But the overall effect was to hamper an already weak opposition. In parts of Hungary, on the eve of this election, you could drive 40 miles without seeing an opposition poster, because the billboard owners favor  Fidesz. That is why, although this vote will not be fixed, very few, inside or outside Hungary, think it will be fair
Results -  exit-poll:
 
  1. Fidesz - 48%
  2. The left alliance - 27%
  3. The  extreme right  Jobbik - 18%

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