Friday, April 4, 2014

There are always risks in the world and most people are aware of them. I would tend to worry more when people in power start to declare an end to risk ("no more boom and bust")....One risk that need to be highlighted is deflation risk in euro zone. With March 2014 inflation at 0.5% p.a., it appears that the deflation in euro zone is setting in with stealth.Combined with high unemployment, low aggregate demand and poor state of banking in EU, I would consider it the most serious threat to the euro zone financial stability and therefore for the global economy. It may also catch everyone unaware as happened during the global financial crisis and thereafter with the sovereign debt crisis in euro zone....Rubini:
The world's economic, financial, and geopolitical risks are shifting. Some risks now have a lower probability – even if they are not fully extinguished. Others are becoming more likely and important.
A year or two ago, six main risks stood at centre stage:
• A eurozone breakup (including a Greek exit and loss of access to capital markets for Italy and/or Spain).
• A fiscal crisis in the United States (owing to further political fights over the debt ceiling and another government shutdown).
• A public-debt crisis in Japan (as the combination of recession, deflation, and high deficits drove up the debt/GDP ratio).
• Deflation in many advanced economies.
• War between Israel and Iran over alleged Iranian nuclear proliferation.
• A wider breakdown of regional order in the Middle East.
These risks have now been reduced. Thanks to European Central Bank president Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech, new financial facilities to stabilise distressed sovereign debtors, and the beginning of a banking union, the eurozone is no longer on the verge of collapse. In the US, President Barack Obama and Congressional Republicans have for now agreed on a truce to avoid the threat of another government shutdown over the need to raise the debt ceiling.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Randamentul obligaţiunilor de stat spaniole şi italiene a urcat ieri, după ce Banca Centrală Europeană (BCE) a decis să menţină dobânda cheie la nivelul minim record de 0,25%.
Randamentul titlurilor spaniole cu maturitatea la zece ani a urcat cu trei puncte de bază, la 3,30%, iar cel al obligaţiunilor cu scadenţa la cinci ani - cu patru puncte de bază, la 1,89%.
Guvernul de la Madrid a vândut ieri obligaţiuni de 5,58 miliarde euro, cu scadenţe în 2019, 2024 şi 2026. Plasamentul a depăşit ţinta stabilită de guvern: 5,5 miliarde euro.
Randamentul titlurilor de stat italiene cu maturitatea la zece ani a urcat cu un punct de bază, la 3,32%.