European banks will be expected to prove they can survive a 7% drop in GDP under
new tougher stress tests unveiled by the regulator. It says banks should also
be able to withstand a 14% fall in house prices and up to a 19% drop in share
prices under a worst-case scenario. The tests are designed to try and prevent
further taxpayer bailouts. Five months before the European Central Bank becomes
the euro currency zone's official bank watchdog, the pressure is ratcheting up
on the 124 largest banks to ferret out the worst of the non-performing loans and
assets weighing down their balance sheets. A 7% fall in GDP might look less
likely today - but Greece is still emerging from a recession four times more
severe than that. Identifying financial holes on bank balance sheets in is one
thing. But plugging them is quite another now that the responsibility is being
shifted from governments to bank shareholders and bondholders. The signs are
that sometime soon, lenders in Germany and France may have to join the likes of
Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and Greek lenders in finding more capital -
principally by asking their investors to cough up for new shares. The main
worry remains what the regulators will do with banks that are seen to fail their
tests but can't raise the cash. By any measure, Europe's collective financial
backstop is billions short of the size needed to cope with a new wave of bank
meltdowns. "It will provide a common framework for the next stops to be taken by
supervisors and banks," said European Banking Authority (EBA) chair Andrea
Enria. The tests are much tougher than the EBA's 2011 stress tests when it
projected a worst-case scenario of just a 0.5% fall in GDP. At the time, the
tests were widely criticised for being too soft, particularly after 18 of the
EU's 27 countries at that time had weaker growth than the "adverse" case they
were tested for. "The key is that the scenario is at least as deep and dark as
the great recession, the financial crisis of 2008/2009," said Mark Zandi,
Philadelphia-based chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Banks that fall short
of capital under the EBA's worst-case imagined scenarios will have to produce a
plan to boost their reserves by raising fresh funds from investors, selling
assets or hanging on to profits instead of paying dividends. European banks
have already made several reforms, including raising billions of capital ahead
of the latest tests. "What we're looking for is relevance of the scenarios, do
they address what we believe is the risk on the ground?" said Neil Williamson,
head of EMEA credit research at Aberdeen Asset Management.
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