Sunday, July 13, 2014

Among economists, Marcel Fratzscher is considered to be particularly creative. As head of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Fratzscher publishes more than almost any other economist in the German-speaking world and even politicians come to him for expertise. Indeed, he has been tasked by Economics Minister Sigmar Gabriel -- who is also German vice chancellor and head of the center-left Social Democratic Party -- with heading up a working group to examine how investments in Germany can be boosted.  Fratzscher's report, to be released on Wednesday, will likely garner the economist even more high-level attention. The study shows how Europe might be able to mobilize the kind of investment it badly needs, despite empty state coffers and the shackles imposed by the debt and deficit limitations of the European Stability Pact.  "We need an impulse to trigger growth in the crisis countries and to prevent the return of recession in the euro zone," Fratzscher says. He believes the recent proposal from France and Italy, which have insisted that stability rules be adjusted to allow for more investment, have merit as long as the debt rules are not weakened.  The DIW proposal adheres to the long-held economic axiom that today's investments ensure future growth -- that money left unspent on new technology or facilities today will not still be available tomorrow. Since the beginning of the financial crisis, gross fixed capital formation -- a macroeconomic measure of investment -- has dropped by 14 percent in the European Union and by 15 percent in the common currency area, DIW researchers have determined.  The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) -- the euro-zone bailout fund -- works similarly. Indeed, Fratzscher's idea is basically a bailout fund for the real economy.   But it is likely to come paired with significantly higher risks and a greater number of defaults. Liquidity problems tend to sneak up on companies much more quickly than they do countries. Nevertheless, Fratzscher doesn't believe that the new fund will result in losses for the stakeholders. "I believe that such a fund would at least break even in the end," he says.  DIW also doesn't think that the fund would encounter difficulties finding enough investors to snap up its bonds. Taken together, some €300 billion is saved each year in the euro zone, representing some 2.5 percent of its economic output. "The financial resources are there for a significant increase in private investment," Fratzscher says. "We just have to mobilize it."

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