Monday, July 7, 2014

Recovery ???? lot's of BS, in fact ...

Here's some detail of the drop in German output:
Manufacturing fell 1.6 percent overall, including a 3% drop in intermediate-goods production, and a 3.5% drop in consumer goods output.
  • Production of investment goods rose 0.3%
  • Energy output was up 1%,
  • Construction slumped 4.9%.Recovery in some of the eurozone's worst hit crisis economies is speeding ahead, according to the latest snapshot of the private sector in the single currency bloc.

Ireland, Spain and Italy were the best performing member states in Markit's June purchasing managers index survey combining activity in the manufacturing and services sector.
Italy's services sector benefited from the sharpest rise in new orders since July 2007.
But a poor performance from France, where private sector activity shrank in June, dragged the overall growth reading in the eurozone down to 52.8 from 53.5 in May – where anything above 50 signals expansion.
"Italy is catching up with Spain and Ireland, which have been among the top performers in the eurozone for some time," said Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg. "The performance of the reform countries contrasts favourably with reform laggard France."
Meanwhile the European Central Bank left interest rates on hold at its June policy meeting. President Mario Draghi made the surprise announcement that from January 2015 the central bank will reduce the frequency of meetings from once a month to every six weeks. It will also start to publish the minutes of its meetings...
 
Well a different point of "good reporting" - which is which ???...France is on the cusp of a fresh recession as services contract sharply and the country braces for yet another round of austerity cuts, with record jobless levels likely to bedevil Francois Hollande’s presidency for years to come.
Markit’s PMI services gauge for France fell for the third month to 48.2 in June, pointing to an outright fall in GDP following zero growth in the first quarter.
The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast this year from 1pc to 0.7pc, warning that there would be no “appreciable decline” in French unemployment until 2016. “Volatile and uneven leading indicators point to the risk of a stalled recovery,” it said.  The IMF said public debt should peak at 95pc of GDP next year but a “growth shock” would push it to 103pc by 2016. The Fund warned of a “negative spiral of low growth and falling inflation” that is pushing up real borrowing costs and further choking investment, already dismally weak. Core inflation was 0.3pc in May.
The economic relapse is a political disaster for Mr Hollande, already the least popular leader in modern times with a poll rating of 23pc, and reeling from a crushing defeat by the far-Right Front National in European elections.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

The latest Spanish industrial output figures have also been released, and they've also missed forecasts.

Seasonally adjusted output rose 2.5% on an annual basis in May - below expectations of a 3.8% increase.

That's suggests growth slowed in Spain during May too.

As this chart shows, Spanish factories had reported a 4.1% jump in annual output in April.

Anonymous said...

Here's some detail of the drop in German output:
•Manufacturing fell 1.6 percent overall, including a 3% drop in intermediate-goods production, and a 3.5% drop in consumer goods output.

•Production of investment goods rose 0.3%

•Energy output was up 1%,

•Construction slumped 4.9%.

Anonymous said...

So a banking crisis is hitting the Eastern European countries which in turn has hurt the Austrian and Italian banks. Germany is joining the rest of Europe in recession. The ECB is instituting a TLTRO scheme which are already looking like it is going to be a great flop. Business as usual in the Eurozone with the ECB offering negative interest rates to any one stupid enough to deposit money with it.