"A sharp decline in the outlook for France’s industry suggested that the country will yet again see zero growth this quarter.
Purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector came in much weaker than analysts had expected this August.
Falling 1.3 points to 46.5, the figure remains well below 50, signalling that output in manufacturing is falling, according to Markit data published on Thursday." The overall French PMI, including a “modest expansion” in the country’s dominant services sector, “masked the ongoing weakness in manufacturing”, said Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Markit. Back in January I said France was in deep trouble and would be exposed during the second half of the year.
They have massaged the results to avoid declaring reentry into recession but that is where they are and it is getting worse.
They continue to allow the public sector to dominate GDP accounting for some 57% of activity. That is a disaster which they can't change, because of the vested interest the public sector (unions) holds in continued suicidal levels of economic consumption.
Place your bets on the next quarter being described by INSEE as 'holding steady', I imagine this is a French euphemism for stagnant.
They have massaged the results to avoid declaring reentry into recession but that is where they are and it is getting worse.
They continue to allow the public sector to dominate GDP accounting for some 57% of activity. That is a disaster which they can't change, because of the vested interest the public sector (unions) holds in continued suicidal levels of economic consumption.
Place your bets on the next quarter being described by INSEE as 'holding steady', I imagine this is a French euphemism for stagnant.
As I said in the March-April period there was a pumping of EZ figures - accrue receivables, defer payables - for the MEP elections. Like all accrual, reversals soon come swanning in and this has happened and for France in a 'tout le monde en vacances' excuse period. Thus I think the numbers are actually a little worse than they say. We will see in September and I think that second-half 0.5% growth figure is more like 0.3%.
The only think France has going for it is the Ukraine ulcer will not have as much effect on her as Germany, Baltics and Balkans.... I take it we are meant to be surprised at this news. I'm willing to bet that the French have fiddled the figures and that the country is actually in recession. Ah what a wonderful thing the euro was, I wonder how long it will be before the populas start clamouring to have the franc back....Well...The people already are, it is the elite that won't entertain the idea. Worth remembering Madame Guillotine can be very persuasive.
The only think France has going for it is the Ukraine ulcer will not have as much effect on her as Germany, Baltics and Balkans.... I take it we are meant to be surprised at this news. I'm willing to bet that the French have fiddled the figures and that the country is actually in recession. Ah what a wonderful thing the euro was, I wonder how long it will be before the populas start clamouring to have the franc back....Well...The people already are, it is the elite that won't entertain the idea. Worth remembering Madame Guillotine can be very persuasive.
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France is not only an economic laggard. it also
has a serious problem with politics. The UMP, the natural choice for government, has been hamstrung for years by infighting. The PS is held hostage by a left wing proposing a kind of extremist policy not seen anywhere in Europe anymore. They will probably be led by the populist Montebourg whose histrionics come from ideas from some 19th century pamphlet dug up on the borders of the Seine. And claiming that austerity is the root of all evil while there is no austerity to be seen in his vicinity.
And that weird man Hollande (about as strange as Sarkozy) spending all his time on crazy (and easily circumvented) 75% tax on high incomes. All that time lost...
Yesterday in Spain Merkel promised Rajoy to support de Guindos as the next president of the Eurogroup.
Currently there are over 200 members of Rajoy's and de Guindos' PP party in different judicial processes for charges of curruption, including the ilegal financing of the party.
Was de Guindos the guy accused by that former treasurer (whose name escapes me) of being involved in illegal party funding? Alongside Rajoy if memory serves right?
Perhaps they think it's important to continue the Juncker tradition of having someone with first-hand experience of facilitating tax-dodging and handling slush funds at the head of the eurogroup ;)
The mess that Hollande is making of the French economy is a stark warning of what would happen in Ed ever became PM.
Meanwhile the latest CBI Services survey shows a slight reduction in the blistering pace of growth but
Growth in numbers employed in the business and professional services sector – which includes accountancy, legal and marketing firms – reached its highest rate in nearly seven years, with expectations for the coming three months at a record high since the survey began in 1998. Investment intentions for the year ahead in the consumer services sector – which includes hotels, bars, restaurants, travel and leisure firms – are particularly robust, with plans for spending on vehicles, plant and machinery also at a record high.
Great news for UK employment. I think unemployment will be below 6% by the end of the year and below 5.5% by May. It could even be below 5%.
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