Monday, October 13, 2014

Real GDP growth made up the ground lost to the 2008 crash in the 1st quarter of 2011 and though sluggish has remained positive. The Euro are as a whole has yet to make that ground. Only Germany, Austria and Belgium have outperformed France.
Employment participation rates for the key 25-54 demographic though off their pre crash peak of 2008 by a slightly more than 2% remain considerably than the Euro area as a whole and much higher than the US. Long term interest rates are at all time lows reflecting investor confidence, inflation is less than 1%, and its current account balance as a percentage of GDP is mildly negative , though, improving and significantly better than the US.
France is a good example of how public expenditure and strong labour laws acts as a buffer to to the privations of a severe economic downturn. Austerity and relaxed labour regulation imposed by the right wing ideologues on the countries of Southern Europe have devastated those economies causing wide spread and wholly unnecessary suffering. The right wing dogma attributing Europe's woes to excessive debt that can only be mitigated by draconian cuts in the face of a weak economy have led to the real threat of a deflationary spiral that would further weaken European economies and be much harder to recover from. Europe, like the UK and the US need to stimulate their economies back to full employment and adequate sustainable demand. The money borrowed to accomplish this would be offset by a combination of increased revenues from positive growth, a return to progressive, avoidance proof taxation and a 2-3 % rise in inflation. Debt forgiveness though laudable in intent does nothing to address the long term underlying causes of the havoc wrought by the unregulated, heads we win, tails you lose, cowboy free marketeers and banksters.

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