The US growth rate will slow in the last three months of 2014.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit explains: “The flash PMI survey data show the pace of economic growth easing for a fourth consecutive month in October. The weakened growth of new orders and downturn in business optimism suggest that growth and hiring could slow further in coming months. “Having signalled an annualised rate of GDP growth of approximately 3.5% in the third quarter, the October readings indicate that the pace of economic growth looks set to moderate in the fourth quarter, down to perhaps 2.5% or less if the PMI falls further in coming months. “There are clearly many concerns, ranging from worries about the impact of Ebola, the Ukraine crisis, the ongoing plight of the Eurozone , signs of further weakness in emerging markets and the Fed starting to tighten policy. “We should not lose sight of the fact that the pace of growth nevertheless remains robust, having merely eased from very strong rates in prior months. The survey is also indicating another month of non-farm payroll growth in excess of 200,000 in October. This sustained strength should help alleviate recent worries about a sudden deterioration in the economy’s health. The pace of expansion appears to be easing only moderately.”
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