Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Greece was plunged into a renewed political crisis  after parliament failed to elect a head of state, setting the stage for snap polls tipped to bring radical leftists to power. Athens’s 300-seat house voted by 168-132 in favor of Stavros Dimas, a former European commissioner and the sole candidate for the post, becoming president, but he had been required to win 180 ballots.
“The number of 168 votes is a clear parliamentary majority but as the constitution foresees it does not allow my election,” he said. “What is important, now, is the interests of the country and the Greek people … what unites us is Greece.”  Under Greek law the parliament now has to be dissolved within 10 days and elections called within 30. The prime minister, Antonis Samaras, whose conservative-dominated two-party alliance has been in office since June 2012, said he would seek elections as soon as possible. “Tomorrow I will go to the president of the republic to request snap polls as early as possible on 25 January,” he said. “It is the hour of democracy, which means truth and responsibility, not populism.”  Five years into Greece’s worst economic crisis in decades, the stridently anti-austerity Syriza party is leading polls and likely to win. The leftists have declared that renegotiation of the accords Athens has signed with the EU, ECB and IMF – the bodies that have kept it afloat to the tune of €240bn – will be among its top priorities. It will also seek to write off the country’s monumental €320bn debt – ambitions that have revived fears of Greece colliding with creditors and being ejected from the eurozone.   Following the vote, Syriza’s leader, Alexis Tsipras, told reporters the country had experienced “a historic day”.
“In a few days the Samaras government, which pillaged the country, will belong to the past, as will the memoranda of austerity,” he said of the bailout accords. “The future has already begun. You should be optimistic and happy.”  The roll-call vote took place in a somber atmosphere, eclipsed by the tragedy on board a ferry in the Adriatic where rescue efforts were at that point continuing almost 24 hours after the vessel caught fire.  Saying it is a crisis depends very much from where the individual is sitting. For the pro-EU and the bankers it might well be a crisis as it threatens their corrupt game, but for ordinary Greeks and eurosceptics this is a good day.
For 5 years Greece has been plunged into crisis, GDP down 27% from the 2008 peak, average household income down 40%, debt to GDP over 170%, unemployment near 30%, youth unemployment over 50%, Golden Dawn Nazis on the march, suicide rate up...........and so it goes on. If that isn't a crisis in the last 5 years I don't what is. If Syriza wins then the real hard work starts, they are going to renegotiate the MOU with the Troika, and if no agreement can be reached will leave the euro. That will cause even more pain in the short run, but ultimately it is the only salvation for Greece.   If there is contagion, and a fair chance there will be then the blight of the euro can be consigned to the dustbin of history where it belongs, along with the EU. This could be the re-ignition of the eurocrisis which has been dormant for the last year or so. ,, That sucking noise you can faintly hear? that's Euros, rushing out of Greek banks by the truckload. If you had EU denominated savings, you'd move them too. It may not be a high probability, but one outcome is a Grexit and anyone with EU savings will have them swapped for new currency at a rate they didn't like, which would probably get a lot worse rather quickly. Anyone with EU denominated debts might quite like such a settlement (unless it was you who was owed the money).   After a ghastly reset, the country would find it hard if not impossible to borrow, and imported goods (in EU) would be unaffordable expensive.
Inequality would probably get worse, as those with assets will long ago have hedged by parking some of what they own outside of Greece and they'll be rich in local currency.
Whatever happens, it will be bad for those at the lower end, as always it is. I feel very sorry for them. I have no idea what would be the best as well as realistic to happen.

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