Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Do we ever mention the dark secret about artificial interest rates? About obstructing the workings of the genius mind of the human race that we call the free market. When government gives away cheap money - using banks simply as storefront brokers, the story always has a sad outcome.  It's not their money, so the banks don't care at all about the eligibilty or the prospects of the borrowing businesses. You're in a dying industry? No problem. Have a few million to keep the operation going for a few more months. You know failure is inevitable, so be sensible and pocket as much as possible.  With free market interest rates, the banks are putting their own money on the line. They want a decent return, and they want to know the borrower is a competent operator in a viable industry.  That means higher interest rates - and it means resources directed toward high-growth sectors (and away from the weak and moribund). This obviously contributes to a higher overall economic growth rate - whereas easy money puts us on a long-term low growth trend line.
Look at Japan and Europe to see what happens when you treat a hangover with more booze. You get a decrepit alcoholic.  You must take a bit of pain to rise again - and the occassional downturn is vital to preserving the essential institutions that provide real security and comfort and sustenance to the human being - religion, the family and the local community. Socialism and government intervention in general undermine these institutions - bringing isolation and misery for the individual, and collapse of civilised society... And the reactions of the online article's German readers are also very eloquent - deep anger and dismay from all, and some of the darkest prophesies I have ever seen in the FAZ comments section: their articulacy puts the DT comments pages to shame.  It's interesting that Merkel has waited until now to allow Draghi to make this QE happen - in a year (2015) that sees - I believe - only two German regional elections, Hamburg and Bremen, both cities ruled by the SPD, and in neither of which the CDU would expect to win in any case.  Merkel is quite keen on power: and for all her contempt for her fellow European political leaders and their 'local problems', is extremely careful to ensure she is protected against such problems herself....So - what's going to happen in Greece?  The ECB is going to give the Greek Central Bank bucketloads of money to go out and buy Greek bonds, flooding the Greek economy with liquidity?  The problem isn't one of liquidity. 
The problem that the Euro is at a level which has rendered the Greek economy uncompetitive. Only a massive fall in the Euro would help the Greeks. This isn't going to happen, so the problem remains, unsolved.

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