Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Greece could be safe for another few weeks, according to the Times newspaper, if Germany pays back a loan they took out from the Greek Govt during the war. In today's money this was about 10 billion Euros. The loan was fully documented and acknowledged by Germany just 26 days prior to the end of the war. So Tsipras could dig out this document and use it as collateral. Pheww - Greece is saved - maybe!!!   Suddenly, share markets in European and USA have gone up hugely because of this good new of repayment to IMF.   However, it is more dangerous now. According to a report, Greece issue new T-bills to cover the repayment. Then, who has/have bought the new T-bills?
Firstly, these T-bills are at higher rates, like somewhat 3.5% which is much higher than the interest rates by ECB and IMF. So, some US economists are predicting the Greece default will happen just a little bit later. By laymen's saying, the can has been kicked further down the road. However, the can has also become bigger and harder to kick further down next time.  Secondly, if Greece keeps issuing T-bills and borrowing new debts from unknown lenders (like Russian consortia), then the issue is getting more and more nontransparent. This non-transparency may explode without early on notice, like the happening of bankruptcy of the Lehman Brothers Bank in USA back in the end of 2008.  If you are a share trader, be careful.  Funny isn't it? If memory serves correctly the Greek Government have been demanding the return of 1.2 Billion Euros that were inadvertently overpaid by the previous Government and the only answer they have received so far from the ECB has been 'get stuffed'. Default Day arrives and hey presto! the ECB releases 1.2 Billion Euros to keep the Greek Economy out of it's coffin. Seems to me that the ONLY thing the Greeks received yesterday was their OWN money back dressed up as another LOAN....When this lot goes belly up, and it will, when the dust has settled and the TRUTH starts to come out, I think the world is going to be shocked beyond belief at the amount of lying, suffering and skullduggery that will be revealed...Daft ain't 'it.. child's  accounting..makes my grandson look smart. Unchecked decade of capital asset-flight pulling the carpet from under the Greek banks; EZB provides the drip-feed ELA's to counter; what the heck is Lagarde up to ? Give 'em whatever dosh and now "whoa got some back !" Tspiras thought he would bring down the rotten edifice and he's still got a few big chances to do it. Will he really press with the reforms, some fractious constitutional ones ? Doesn't look it. That transformer reform list that Yanis gave to the EU finance committee "Djssel diesel", is probably scrupled up and binned.
The problem is Lagarde, it couldn't get more fictive. It highlights the IMF's mistake of pumping Greece with bailout dosh in 2010. It's going to be mighty hard/impossible for Greece to deal with those massive May June reimbursements with without more assistance from the EZB, and Germany again coming into the fray as the stupid merry go round looses it's centrifuge.

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