Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Rising Stock prices refelect the true inflation

Responding to a reporter asking about when interest rates might rise in March last year, Ms Yellen suggested that the Fed would start to increase these “probably something in the order of six months” after it ceased buying up bonds.  Financial markets reacted instantaneously. Ms Yellen’s offhand comment was interpreted as a clear sign that the bank would tighten policy much faster than expected, causing US stocks to tumble. In a now-infamous research note, James Lord, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, singled out five economies as particularly weak. Brazil, Indonesia, India, Turkey and South Africa became known as the “Fragile Five”, picked for their large current account deficits, high inflation, and weak growth potential – all factors that made them vulnerable to the Fed.  Morgan Stanley last week revisited the group, as the Fed’s most recent dovish tilt “allowed emerging markets some breathing space again”. Manoj Pradhan, an economist at the US bank, said vulnerable economies had failed to take advantage of the reprieve offered by the central bank. Rates are rising already in anticipation of the Fed, the bond markets are petrified of the fallout due to absence of liquidity...this tougher rates outlook makes it even more inconceivable that greece, hamstrung by the euro as its currency, can generate any kind of meaningful economic activity.  Greece needs to devalue, to gain economic momentum, to gain the massive boon in tourism that would surely be theirs; But. For this, it needs its own currency. Let grexit become a reality as soon as possible, to save the unproductive, lethargic greeks from themselves, and, to save the Eurocrats from squandering countless more billions trying to catch the falling knife.  EU and its leaders need to shore up credibility for themselves, and for the credibility of Europe in the eyes of investors and traders. UK must be given assurance that spendthrift nations will be fully confronted, and blocked, where necessary, so as to remove another possible excuse for another disastrous possibility: Brexit.

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