Friday, July 24, 2015

I'm not sure the Germans will see  - between Draghi, the IMF, the US, the French, the FT, the Economist etc etc the pressure on them for debt relief is coming up fast. It was a calm delivery, but like a stiletto between the shoulder blades. Given the Germans have conceded maturity extension is legally possible, that is where Draghi and the IMF are positioning the debate. The question is whether the maturity extension is so great as to amount to an enormous upfront write off of not. The Germans say not. But as I read it 2 out of 3 of the Troika - the IMF and ECD - are clear it needs to be the former, and of the EU the governments are split with some like France and Italy going with the ECB and IMF, and some with the Germans in resisting that. With the Bundestag out of the way the pressure will mount enormously in coming weeks, especially with the IMF's not so subtle threat it will not be joining the bailout if this is not addressed. At this moment it looks like the Germans, after all, could be the big losers. And my suspicion is, reading Draghi, they will fear that too, and be furious. The great irony is it was the Germans who insisted on having the IMF in the deal over Tsipras' objections.

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