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The Federal Reserve could raise interest rates for the first time since 2006 at this week's meeting Wednesday and Thursday. A debate is raging whether this would be the right time to do it. Economic growth has been slow and jobs growth has lagged. Leaders from The World Bank to the International Monetary Fund to former Treasury secretary Larry Summers have publicly asked the Fed to hold off on the first rate hike in the face of a sluggish global economy and plummeting commodities prices. Of course traditional thinking is that lower oil and gasoline prices will ultimately help consumers and encourage them to spend more money which will lead to economic growth. But we have yet to see that happen. So I turned to one of my favorite independent research analysts: Stephen Schork who writes The Schork Report, and got a dreadful picture of the global economy. He says the drop in commodities is critical because it is a sure sign of a recession on the way. Our interview follows, edited for length and clarity...The Fed has painted itself into a corner. Just from a credibility standpoint, it's probably a better than 50% chance that they do raise rates. But I think that obviously is going to add a further blast to economic growth going forward. The biggest takeaway here is that commodities don't lead economies. Economies lead commodities. And falling commodity prices are a big telltale for us all.