Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Anybody with a bachelor's degree in economics could have predicted the problems with the Euro. The creation of the Euro was done with full understanding that floating currencies are powerful adjustment mechanisms, and that the risks that one country's problems could poison the well for all. What everyone is missing is that the creators of the Euro thought/hoped they would be able to control these problems before they arose, and that the gains from lowering transaction costs and trade barriers would outweigh the difficulties that resulted from the Euro.  What everyone is ignoring is the fact that the ECB (and others) did next to nothing to stop this crisis from happening during the last decade when important steps should have been taken. Also, there were countries that profited mightily as a result of the Euro, and part of their success is directly due to the same setup that caused Greece's downfall - but they're now largely unwilling to do anything to repair the situation. So the lesson of this crisis shouldn't (IMO) just be that currency unions are bad and that opponents of the Euro were right. There are costs and benefits to common currencies. More importantly though, people need to be conscious of both, and not just accepting all the benefits and ignoring any potential disasters. I realize this is all 20/20 hindsight, but so many of the problems of the Greece crisis could have been avoided even with a currency union, but nobody had the willpower or the desire to tackle them at the time...What everyone is ignoring is the fact that the ECB (and others) did next to nothing to stop this crisis from happening during the last decade when important steps should have been taken.  No pre-emptive action will ever be taken to deal with bubbles while politics dominates economics. The public will never be able to distinguish between an artificial correction forced so that a bubble popped before it became economy sized and a real recession. If the ECB had intervened it would have caused a political crisis as politicians hammered the body for ruining the economy.  Of course this is nothing to do with where the boundaries of power lie. This is a general problem with politics. Somebody could have forcibly popped the leverage bubble in the world economy in 2005 but that man would have been known as the man who took all your money away.


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