Friday, April 22, 2016

The International Monetary Fund has tried to attenuate the pessimism reflected in its World Economic Outlook through the Global Financial Stability Report, titled "Potent policies for a successful normalization". Without going too much into the psychological subtext of the title, a cursory read shows that the optimism of the Fund has no real basis, especially if we focus on the description of the financial situation of the financial system in Europe.  "The systemic risk is limited, but can grow all over Europe", the IMF document states, because there is "a confluence between the issue of non-performing loans and that of borrowing conditions", when the possibility of bail-in has been fully internalized by the holders of banking liabilities". The euphemisms of the Fund are touching, especially if we look at the report on the global economic outlook.  Bloomberg writes that "the report is very pessimistic", amid "far too low growth that has lasted too long", according to the chief-economist of the institution, professor Maurice Obstfeld.  One of the risks mentioned in the introductory chapter of the report, is the return of the financial crisis, with negative effects on demand and confidence, about which it is stated that "they could enter a self-perpetuating negative feedback loop".  The choice of the term "self-perpetuating negative feedback loop" is extremely unfortunate for the specialists of an institution who should know something about dynamic economic systems. A negative feedback loop is by definition, stabilizing, whereas a positive feedback loop can lead to explosive growth or catastrophic growth.

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