Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Moody's said the eurozone debt crisis had made policymakers more reluctant to cede sovereignty, while "significant fiscal union" was "off the table". "The process of further integration seemingly relies on further shocks almost by design," it said.  Brussels' flagship growth plan also faced significant difficulties as countries with room to invest refused to increase public spending, while fear of further bail-outs meant the banking union remained incomplete, it added.  Moody's said the Greek crisis also remained a big threat to the eurozone and EU.  "The risk of “accidents” remains high in a process that suffers from partial solutions and, increasingly, public scepticism," it said. "Crises can be great catalysts for change, and this has been the case in the euro area. "Still, significant vulnerabilities remain - with 'Brexit' and 'Grexit' still key risks. In a period of relative financial calm, the political will to further pool sovereignty evaporates quickly, and it is only against the alternative of a break-up of the existing system that further measures come back into consideration."  Colin Ellis, Moody's chief credit officer for Europe, said a British exit could spark an "existential moment" for the bloc.  "Even if the EU survives its current challenges largely unscathed, even a 'small' future crisis could threaten the sustainability of current institutional frameworks, if it coincided with negative public sentiment and populist political developments," the report said.  "This can create the impression that the question is when the system breaks, rather than if."

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