Sunday, June 17, 2018

   Mugur Is─ârescu, about NBR policies :
     - The decisions of the Board of Directors of the NBR have targeted the behavior of the monetary policy in the context of the significant and quick increase of inflation;
     - the lack of reaction of the NBR would have led to inflation expectations being tethered to a new higher level, because economic operators would have interpreted the lack of reaction from the NBR as a tacit acceptance of the new inflation level;
     - The risk of depreciation of the leu would have increased, which could generate new inflationary pressures, because the NBR can't fight the pressures of the monetary market regardless of the circumstances, especially if they are accompanied by a change in the perception by investors;
     - The hike of the annual inflation rate was generated first and foremost by exogenous, temporary and statistical factors;
     - The monthly price increases also reflect fundamental inflationary factors, such as the accumulation of inflationary pressures on the demand side, the increase of wage costs and increased inflationary expectations in the short term;
     - The measures passed by the NBR represent the only correct, justified and proportionate reaction to the inflationary threats and to the growing imbalances in the economy;
     - we share the point of view of a good combination between the monetary policy and the government's economic policy;
     - Inflation and the exchange rate represent symptoms of the quality of the mix of economic policies, and the chain of causes - budget deficit - current account deficit - weakening of the leu - inflation must be viewed as in correlation not just with the monetary policy, but with the government's fiscal-budgetary and tax receipts policy;
     - the full management of the aggregated demand by the NBR involves the more intense use of monetary policy instruments, which would generate a larger rise of the interest rate, because the use of macroprudential instruments, to reduce demand by compressing credit, is not enough;
     - a potential intervention on the exchange rate would not only prove unsustainable and would lead to the pointless loss of the currency reserves, but it would also affect the credibility of the central bank;
     - the situation in Romania is different from the one in Czech Republic, Poland or Hungary, as the inflation rate is within the targeted range (mostly due to some prudent budget policies), and the pressures are on the strengthening of the currencies, unlike Romania, where the pressures are towards its weakening;
     - the announcing of risks to the balances of the economy does not amount to expressing suspicions concerning the government's policy;
     - The NBR has opted to use the annual inflation rate because the ratio allows the ongoing observation of the inflation in relation to the target, and what the average citizen feels is more the CPI inflation, rather than the one calculated based on the Eurostat methodology;
     - the demand surplus is an unobservable size and it is justifiable its more cautious approach, because when its effects manifest themselves through inflation and foreign deficit it is too late for an effective action of the monetary authority;
     - Regardless of the level of surplus demand, its very existence requires a prudent economic management, which relies on anti-cyclical policies, and the pro-cyclical policies from the public authorities do nothing but deepen the imbalances;
     - In this context, the measures taken by the NBR had as their goal minimizing the risks of a eventual forced adjustment when the economic cycle enters a negative slope.

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